Snowchaser Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 CMC with the gulf tap. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Pretty solid agreement among all the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Nice 3-5 for everyone on the 00z CMC 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: IMO there are 3 options on how this could evolve. You're right the NS wave is pretty far north. But the southern wave is pretty far south. Option 1: The end up too far apart and the southern wave slides off to our south and the northern wave misses to the NW and we end up in a dead zone in between. Option 2: They consolidate and phase more into a stronger system but that process happens far enough east for the system to transfer to the coast and bomb out from there. This is our "win" scenario Option 3: They consolidate too early and the system tracks to far NW. Thinking that option 2 is very much on the table. Right now this is a light event, but I can see a blowup also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Dude you live in one of the dryest spots on the east coast!!! On top of that its obvious from your posts that you live in a local meso scale oragraphically induced minimum within the larger regional minimum. But you live in the shadow effect of the 4,500 foot Allegheny ridge in WV, one of the highest areas of consistent elevation in the apps. You're in one of the worst shadow effect regions there is in the entire east coast. But you expect that to suddenly stop or something? Any system with a westerly flow is going to dry up to some extent in your area. Unless you find a way to get rid of those ridges to your west. The only setup where you typically will do better that other areas in our region wrt precip is with a slow moving coastal where you get some easterly component to the flow and it banks up against the ridges to your west. Storms like 2016 and the first 2 in 2009-10 are where you can do very well. But weaker systems coming from the west and southwest...well you KNOW how thats going to go. That is positively depressing. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 43 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: CMC with the gulf tap. Jeez. Tracks even better than last one ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: IMO there are 3 options on how this could evolve. You're right the NS wave is pretty far north. But the southern wave is pretty far south. Option 1: The end up too far apart and the southern wave slides off to our south and the northern wave misses to the NW and we end up in a dead zone in between. Option 2: They consolidate and phase more into a stronger system but that process happens far enough east for the system to transfer to the coast and bomb out from there. This is our "win" scenario Option 3: They consolidate too early and the system tracks to far NW. So option 1...when you say they miss each other, would that mean the the ns was moving faster? Kinda wondering what clues to look for over the next few days if there are any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 0z euro is like a 7-9 pm start thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 0z euro is like a 7-9 pm start thursdayLooks like its really digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2-4" event for most of DC/Baltimore metro....pretty weak and dry run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 0z euro is like a 7-9 pm start thursday Looks like its really digging yeah...its own grave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Deck Pic said: 2-4" event for most of DC/Baltimore metro....pretty weak and dry run Yeah, didn't look as good as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 yeah...its own graveLooked promising...oh well. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, didn't look as good as 12z quick and dry...6-8 hour event. Luckily it falls at night. but 0.25" liquid aint gonna cut it for our new updated expectations of 6"+ every storm. 2 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I like this track also and analogs say they keep coming generally for about two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 2-4" event for most of DC/Baltimore metro....pretty weak and dry run Not as good as 12z... but I'd take this run and run lol. Wish it were better yes... but any snow right now is good snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, yoda said: Not as good as 12z... but I'd take this run and run lol. Wish it were better yes... but any snow right now is good snow Snow on snow is always a good thing. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 00z EPS through 96 Around 30 of the 50 members have DCA >2" snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 morning AFD from LWX about the "event" Thursday looks to be our next chance at any impactful weather. A emerging shortwave trough will deepen over the Central Plains as a surface low develops over the TN Valley. With the jet stream orientated in a SW to NE trajectory, patten looks indicative for a Miller B type of system: where an emerging low out of the TN/OH valley phases its energy with a developing low off Cape Hatteras. Guidance has been pretty persist on this set- up, resulting in a quick moving snow event. While not expecting amounts to be as drastic as they were yesterday at this time, do think this system is capable of producing a more widespread 1-3" or 2-4" event with locally higher amounts possible along the higher terrain due to upslope processes. Given the fact that this is still a few days away, the forecast is subject to change and confidence on any definitive outcome still remains low at this time. However, confidence is increasing for the possibility of a low end, plowable event. Best estimate for timing at this juncture would be late Thursday night into Friday morning, which would make traveling for the Friday morning commute hazardous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 ICON likes snow for Friday 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 06z GFS is tasty... warning even for most of the region... 4-8" 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6z review: NAM is doing the usual NAM thing. The reason why we don't have a lot of the usual meltdowns is because everybody is sleep. RGEM: Nice event ICON: Nice event GFS: Nice event, even better vs 0z 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z GFS is tasty... warning even for most of the region... 4-8" 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Looking ahead, this period as advertised looks really interesting. EPS very similar. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 ^Might be time for the SE to get in on the fun. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Mmmmhmmm... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Mmmmhmmm... Love to see the high confidence. The overnight runs were all really great, IMO. 06z GEFS came in a touch improved as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Mount Holly's take on late week- The main focus is on the Thursday night into Friday time period. A potent but fast moving low pressure system should develop in the southeastern U.S. and progress off the coast around NC/VA. With this track, our region is in the favored location for mostly snow (though depending on how close the center of the low stays to our coast, there may be a brief period of rain or sleet at the start of precipitation. Models came into better agreement with the track of this low (as compared to yesterday when some models were still showing a weak/surpressed system), however there remain some timing differences. Most guidance seems to be in agreement that this will be a quick impact (no more than 12 hours of precip), but there is question if it will be from late Thursday night through mid day Friday, or be primarily during the day Friday. The storm system is not yet fully within the period for our snow amount forecast, so we will have more details on that later today. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I think just about all of us who were fringed yesterday want to lock up what the GFS is offering. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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