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November 2021 General Discussion


cyclone77
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Here's the Vets day record max and low max temps. 1911 stood out has it has max records in MO up to MI, and low max records in the Plains. Here's the wx maps for that time. System moving NE bombs out in the Lakes. Serious temp gradient. Interesting that we have something similar going to happen this year, just not as extreme as back then.

NC US Veteran's Day max temps.png

NC US Veteran's Day low max temps.png

1911-11-11 wx map.gif

1911-11-12 wx map.gif

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

MLI nailed 69 today.  Was a great day to mulch/burn leaves etc, as there was very little wind and such nice temps.  Rare to get temps this warm this late in the season without hurricane force winds lol.

69 at KIND also. Was glorious outside today. Glad it was a day off for me . But this is beyond normal. The correction when it comes is going to hurt when it gets here.

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Wet weather starting to move into the area. Looks like a nasty night, and day tomorrow. Might be some snow in the higher terrain, but it will be more of a slush. Ground still warm, and temps will be just around freezing. Better chance of good snow totals near the border, and in the NC MN region, as temps will end up colder quicker in those areas. Just a typical early season slop fest. :) 

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Nearly 2" of rain here. Been a steady soaker for a good 12 hours, and it's still raining. Looks like the snow has been staying along the border over into NC MN. Rain is changing to snow now across the the Iron Range, and even down near the head of the Lake outside of Duluth. Should see a change over for the area as a whole later today. Nature getting a much needed drink, and rivers back in action. 

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On 11/8/2021 at 3:25 PM, Brian D said:

Here's the Vets day record max and low max temps. 1911 stood out has it has max records in MO up to MI, and low max records in the Plains. Here's the wx maps for that time. System moving NE bombs out in the Lakes. Serious temp gradient. Interesting that we have something similar going to happen this year, just not as extreme as back then.

 

 

 

 

Great post. From my understanding, 11/11/1911 was one of the greatest temperature drops that Missouri has ever seen, accompanied by various tornado reports before the cold front.

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Great post. From my understanding, 11/11/1911 was one of the greatest temperature drops that Missouri has ever seen, accompanied by various tornado reports before the cold front.

Figured there would be tornadoes, just never looked that hard to find out. The map for the 12th showed a note of "Colder 20 - 60 dF or more" change from previous days temps in the southern region. That's a serious drop to be sure.

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5 hours ago, Brian D said:

Nearly 2" of rain here. Been a steady soaker for a good 12 hours, and it's still raining. Looks like the snow has been staying along the border over into NC MN. Rain is changing to snow now across the the Iron Range, and even down near the head of the Lake outside of Duluth. Should see a change over for the area as a whole later today. Nature getting a much needed drink, and rivers back in action. 

It looks like it's starting to snow in the higher elevations around you.

Spirit Mountain | Live Cams (spiritmt.com)

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Izzi bringing the excitement for tomorrow

 

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
823 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 823 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

Friday:
Water vapor imagery shows another well defined vort max near
western Lake Superior/NE MN early this evening. Guidance is in
decent agreement on pinwheeling this wave a full 180 degrees
around the upper low, placing it over eastern IA Friday afternoon.
This places our CWA in a region of positive vorticity advection
and large scale synoptic ascent tomorrow afternoon (during peak
heating).

Looking at the various forecast models, not really seeing much
variability in forecast soundings across our area tomorrow
afternoon. Those forecast soundings have "the look" that is
typically associated with our more impressive convective snow
shower events. That look includes steep low level lapse rates from
the surface to above 700mb, with many of the models explicitly
forecasting a MAUL (moist absolutely unstable layer), which is
associated with significant instability. Low CCL (convective
condensation levels) with cloud tops between 15-20kft, with temps
within the cloud layer ranging from near 0C at the base of the
cloud to around -25 to -30C at cloud top. Appears to be a classic
sounding for big, fat aggregate wet snow flakes (1"+ diameter)
given the deep ascent through a wide range in temps that include a
near freezing level to moisture the flakes and maximize clumping
(aggregation).

The heaviest snow showers will be scattered about and much like
summertime convection there will be the haves and have nots with
respect to who gets hit. Areas that get hit by the more intense
snow showers could see a quick inch or so of wet snow come down in
30 minutes or less. Air temps in the heavier snow showers should
drop to near freezing, so if the higher rates materialize as
forecast, then there could be periods where snow sticks even on
roadways in the heavier snow showers. This should be more the
exception than the rule, but that could make it more hazardous
with varying conditions over short distances. Visibility in the
heavier snow showers should drop to 1/4SM to 1/2SM and much like
this evening, the strong cells could produce graupel and mix down
some higher wind gusts as well. Can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm, but with the top of the convectively unstable layer
just barely above -20C, think the chances of sufficient charge
separation for lightning is low (though not zero).

Will be issuing an SPS this evening to raise awareness of the
potential impacts tomorrow. Updated forecast grids are out, text
forecast products will be out shortly, followed not to long by
an SPS.

- Izzi
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Probably saw more lightning on my way in to work this morning that I saw nearly all of this summer combined.  There was quite the light show to the west and north west of the lakeshore this morning along with reports of some pretty heavy rain.  Clear skies in my area really highlighted the clouds and lightning.

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