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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup that happens. But this year . Other than Southbury CT.. the Oaks are way behind and lots of green. This is going to be the worst and latest cleanup since 2011. Look at this map. Other than the hills .. CT is mostly green

 

That map shows my area "Near Peak" but everything except oaks, popple and understory beech is essentially bare.  We peaked 7-10 days ago.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The weed smoke turning everything green as you rip bongs in backyard 

That would turn it brown, Chemistry 101. Bongs are so 1990s though…move forward bud. Your area will have dispensaries soon. The future is coming, start massaging your neuroticism’s now or you’ll be the old geezer on your block yapping how the world is not what it used to be.

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5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Other than a day or two around Monday, we mild. Ray is gonna have a jungle when he comes back to mow. 

Gosh ...I admittedly thought this one had more staying power in the model runs, too.

This has been going on for years frankly ... I don't know when this started - or if frankly it is somehow CC mucking with the "technology-grid" of modeling operations et al ..etc, but routinely a cold air mass in the extended outlooks... normalizes getting to short term. Durations shrink by delay and earlier back-end roll-outs, and 850 mb scalar values start arriving less cold overall.    

What I try to do is match the operational "lies" with telecon spreads - but the latter isn't a snap shot application, either. The trends and their own verifications are included in that.  This cool down next week had that. 

Didn't matter this time.  Interesting... At this rate of on-going trends, that is no different than the last 2 days, which by and large failed to frost. It's an interesting thing to have a -NAO post October 15 ... challenged to frost in New England.  Granted the PNA has been modestly negative but the pattern looks PNA neutral, and the progs are showing it as rising. Not sure that's much/how much of a factor

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