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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yep, it’s why the garden here died weeks ago despite no freezing temps.  Everything shriveled up and brown, already pulled from the ground now.  Solar matters a lot.  The early shadows cast by hillsides and such seemed to kill it before a frost could this year.

Still picking Jablano peppers here. Fried some up tonight with the Penale hen of the woods with a cheeseburger. Let's not frost rest of the month as tons of peppers still on the plants.

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10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Why do you say that?  This time of year, the side yard where my Davis is gets like 1-2hrs of sunlight.  It's been running cooler than other stations around me by 2-3F now for a month plus.

Because if it’s properly vented it shouldn’t have 3-4+F biases just because of sunlight. That’s why people have fan aspirated sensors. It removes the bias you get from solar radiation. You always may have some, but there should not be that much of a difference from your reading and KTAN. 

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55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because if it’s properly vented it shouldn’t have 3-4+F biases just because of sunlight. That’s why people have fan aspirated sensors. It removes the bias you get from solar radiation. You always may have some, but there should not be that much of a difference from your reading and KTAN. 

But if the canopy is solid enough to block solar radiation, than it will be cooler.

https://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KTAN

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

But if the canopy is solid enough to block solar radiation, than it will be cooler.

The whole point of the shield and fans is to remove that bias. ASOS temps are taken in the shade too...the thermometer is inside a little box. The entire bias will never be totally removed because the ambient air is probably affected too much by the sun hitting darker surfaces near the ASOS, but it shouldn't be more than a degree or so even taking that into account if it is properly sited away from the pavement.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Not true even elevated ORH was below freezing.  Terrible bias for Bos in 09

ORH only got down to 31F during that October stretch, so I don't think BOS was wrong in 2009. We know both BOS and ORH don't radiate, so if ORH only managed 31F, then BOS didn't get below freezing.

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Eegh...  gag

was hopin' that signal would fade next week but if anything, ... it appears to have become that much more coherent overnight.  In fact, of those ...30 some odd members of the GEFs, now 2/3rds are on board. 

It's not even a -NAO so much as a REX-block that evolves 'close' to the NAO's domain, and by virtue of that proximity, ...the NAO calculations are down below 0 SD. Everywhere N-E/SE of the lower Maritime of Canada toward the D. Straight/Greenland/Iceland and S is actually rather (+) looking... 

The result is just a tormented misery construct, as though built deliberately for an attack against decency upon the civilities from the MA to NE.  

"Next week" may as well be two weeks - my god.  I looked at the last 3 consecutive runs of the operational GFS' layouts, and looking at those 00z members that support ... the means ( eye-ballin') is like 7 straight days of easterly to NE hosing off the Labradorian anus tube, at a time of year the means 56/52 for 168 to 192 hours with no sun.

Is that what people meant when hiding their misery behind the mantra that so long as early winter isn't reliable, I'd rather it be above normal until late November? 

This?  this GFS/GEFs pattern strikes all intents and wants and purposes about as equilaterally as imaginably wrong, to minimize as much redemptive value as it plausibly can.  No soul is spared. 

The Euro,  ...whose performance is still bearing scrutiny due to new release ... seems to be offering a synopsis that more resembles the 1/3 of those members mentioned above, that don't support 'quite' the extremeness of agony the others are.  But one aspect they all seem to favor is a general tendency for the mass of the lower troposphere to unrelentingly move from east -> west the majority of the time.  

Probably the blend of the whole thing argues,  if one has the luxury of unused vacation time along with the wherewithal to flee to another region out side the MA-NE inhumane climate shithole, you really may want to consider a 10 day escape, ... hell, even consider the sabbatical if you can't.  Sometimes toleration and sanity just requires it ...  

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The whole point of the shield and fans is to remove that bias. ASOS temps are taken in the shade too...the thermometer is inside a little box. The entire bias will never be totally removed because the ambient air is probably affected too much by the sun hitting darker surfaces near the ASOS, but it shouldn't be more than a degree or so even taking that into account if it is properly sited away from the pavement.

Well it looks like TAN temps are ok per Gladstone, so maybe it's the siting that is impacting it.  Nearest structure/pavement at TAN is like 300' away.  

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The whole point of the shield and fans is to remove that bias. ASOS temps are taken in the shade too...the thermometer is inside a little box. The entire bias will never be totally removed because the ambient air is probably affected too much by the sun hitting darker surfaces near the ASOS, but it shouldn't be more than a degree or so even taking that into account if it is properly sited away from the pavement.

Thermometers of the not-too-far-off future will be quantum sampling the thermal kinetic state, which won't require any of the apparatus constraints being an obvious advantage.  But that advantage is like thousands of times more accurate ...  on the deep, irrelevant right-side of the decimal points. 

These modern station sites may in fact error up to 3 degrees in particularly stressed circumstances, but are usually < 1 error... etc etc, so that sort of 'chunk' error will be recouped, but it will be capable of sub-tolerance precision.  I mean, 32.00000000000001431732 still freezes water due to the uncertain principle in that realm/sense of it..    But such a quantum sampling device, ... an integration of quantum thermometers with optics/satellite detection methods, will mean when it site reads a given temperature, it is that temperature a that site - really.

 ... I'm hoping it is 32.00000451, when the icing tolerance is 32.000000450

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well it looks like TAN temps are ok per Gladstone, so maybe it's the siting that is impacting it.  Nearest structure/pavement at TAN is like 300' away.  

Something happened with their high temps back in 2019. Look at how the yellow dots (high temps) have a step-change in late 2019...the low temps don't seem affected too much:

 

 

 

 

 

 

KTAN_MADIS.png

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