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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

The 3K NAM is anemic for Buncombe County...

[img]https://i.imgur.com/RmF3rsn.png[/img]

I wouldn't worry too much about that. Yes there will be a little less precip but it often overdoes it. 

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5 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Less than one inch of snowfall at KAVL is a little more than under-doing it.  It's like they will have flurries during the day, but nothing else.  Eastern and western parts of the county sill have pink shades, but the French Broad River valley is grayed out on that image.

I have seen it do that before only to have it back the next run... And while the models show the valley shadow, they are overzealous with it many times. ... Or, there could be nothing in downtown Asheville. I am hoping that I am enough southwest to pick up a decent snow. We will know when we know I guess. :)

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"While the low track along I-95 will allow WAA to cause p-type to transition to rain from snow well inland, this will not be the case in the higher terrain where WPC probabilities for 6 inches are above 70% from near Asheville, NC through the Laurel Highlands of PA, and it is likely many locations will receive more than 1 foot of snow."

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Mention of 1 foot is probably for the north.

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It's easy to get antsy when you follow these things for so long, but like Met1985 said, the GFS and Euro have been consistent.

... And the end of the day, it's just snow.  

We are getting a good winter storm, somewhere between acceptable and wow.

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Just now, ncjoaquin said:

It's easy to get antsy when you follow these things for so long, but like Met1985 said, the GFS and Euro have been consistent.

... And the end of the day, it's just snow.  

We are getting a good winter storm, somewhere between acceptable and wow.

They have been very solid the past several runs for sure.

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2 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

It's easy to get antsy when you follow these things for so long, but like Met1985 said, the GFS and Euro have been consistent.

... And the end of the day, it's just snow.  

We are getting a good winter storm, somewhere between acceptable and wow.

Hell, I was up before the sun the other week outside watching it snow for an hours or so. Thrilled with 1/2 an inch :lol:

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30 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

 

 

I'm 52 for a couple more months  :P   @jburnswill be in here in a minutes laughing at us children needing naps to stay up past bedtime :ph34r:

 You are only as old as you feel ladies and gentlemen - only as old as you feel.   Granted - when winter weather approaches that tends to feel decades younger.  

May the models ever be in your favor!

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7 minutes ago, BretWx said:

Anyone know what models are used for the NWS blend?  

12Z:

snowfall_acc.us_state_nc_va.png

The National Blend of Models (NBM) is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance. The goal of the NBM is to create a highly accurate, skillful and consistent starting point for the gridded forecast. This new way to produce NDFD grids will be helpful providing forecasters with a suite of information to use for their forecasts. The NBM is considered an important part of the efforts to evolve NWS capabilities to achieve a Weather-Ready Nation.

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These gusts during the height of the heavy snow Sunday 10AM on the 12k NAM - phew! 
sfcgust_mph.us_state_nc_va.png
Just got a brand new roof put on this week, just in time for these dead trees to fall on it. Hope not, but this map makes me very anxious!

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

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22 minutes ago, BretWx said:

Don't start jumping now. It's the NAM at 60hrs. And it's still snowing. 

 

snku_acc.us_state_nc_va.png

From my experience, the snow hole is true but typically only a couple inches less than the surrounding areas.  Nothing this extreme.

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2 minutes ago, BretWx said:

These gusts during the height of the heavy snow Sunday 10AM on the 12k NAM - phew! 

 

I was able to raise my station up higher at my house in hopes of getting a better reading from the N. Hoping to get better reading this go around. 

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