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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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10 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Hard to get the warm and fuzzies about snow chances this winter with this pattern, La Nina, etc. Hope I'm wrong

Yeah things are not looking good at all. A sharp rise in the NAO and a sharp fall in the PNA spells doom for this month already. The ski resorts are going to take a beating 

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4 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah things are not looking good at all. A sharp rise in the NAO and a sharp fall in the PNA spells doom for this month already. The ski resorts are going to take a beating 

It may be 5° above average or more for December... And now the Euro is backing off rain next week which is not good

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Yeah things are not looking good at all. A sharp rise in the NAO and a sharp fall in the PNA spells doom for this month already. The ski resorts are going to take a beating 
Thankfully we've got Christmas cause we're sure not selling a bunch of winter coats right now.

On the bright side I can wear my Hawaiin shirts with my Santa hat and not look quite as crazy this year.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

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12 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Northern Virginia gets clipped by the snow on Next Wednesday.

However, there is a major storm next Sunday on the 18z GFS with snow as far south as Georgia & Western North Carolina.

I’ll settle for slightly above average air at this point. If we get some rain this week, I may be mowing again soon. 

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4 hours ago, Buckethead said:

My NWS forecast now has some sort of frozen precip for Monday night-Wednesday night. With the way the pattern has been I'll count just seeing a few wet flakes as a win.

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Yep MRX has sleet/snow here overnight Tuesday. Looking at GFS/NAM soundings it certainly looks... interesting. Probably wind up being a 33 degree rainstorm but one can dream I suppose.

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18 hours ago, Buckethead said:

My NWS forecast now has some sort of frozen precip for Monday night-Wednesday night. With the way the pattern has been I'll count just seeing a few wet flakes as a win.

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I'll take it as well for the win...but skeptical...looks like some moisture coming in for the weekend tho'...

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7 hours ago, Buckethead said:

The 12z gfs is looking nice for Sunday with 4-8" of snow in the border counties. I'm not buying it until I see it on the 12z run Friday.

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Might want to wait to buy in until you see it on your yardstick.

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2 hours ago, Buckethead said:

At 735 it was 41.1° at my house. By 752 it dropped to 30.2° and is holding steady there. Unfortunately it looks like the best moisture is missing us to the north.

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Had a snow shower roll through mid-morning and put a dusting down up here where I am working in SW VA (Between Lebanon and Grundy).  

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Never got out of the 40's today here in Valley. Looking like another night of snowmaking at Cataloochee. These cold shots coming every few days have certainly helped and that looks to continue late this weekend and likely mid to late next. The burn ban was lifted for the SW Mountain Counties this afternoon. 

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My goodness the wind is crazy out there. Getting gusts regularly to 45 mph since about 5:30 AM here in the Valley. 

The severe storms and Tornado outbreak overnight are likely the precursor of a pattern change in the next week or so. The Gulf has been virtually shut down all Fall. That appears to be changing.  Inspection of the various ensembles, teleconnection, as well as the general Hemispheric pattern are showing signs of reshuffling. My suspicious is we see a shot of very cold air just before Christmas. Not going to guess what the sensible weather may offer precipitation wise this far out. That said the computer schemes will continue to be very volatile over the next 5 to 7 days and possibly a bit longer. Enjoy the rain today! We need it.

 

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