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October 2021


Stormlover74
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While these long range SPV forecasts can be very speculative, the latest extended EPS doesn’t have the stronger rebound it did last week. It would be good news if that second dip near the start of December idea has merit. But these forecasts beyond 15 days can often be very uncertain. 

New run

C5F37C36-C2E2-402B-8E30-2C3987E41310.thumb.jpeg.bde85120ee14f62dff75c4b7bc165259.jpeg
 

Old run

 

2C88B283-ABBB-47CF-A9EF-22C606B96ADF.thumb.jpeg.ed16e93b1e792e408d82b301f160027a.jpeg


 

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Ahead of a major storm that will bring a widespread 2"-4" rainfall with local amounts of 6" to the region, temperatures rose into the 70s across much of the region. Several locations reached or exceeded daily record high temperatures including:

Baltimore: 80° (old record: 77°, 1975 and 1931)
Philadelphia: 78° (old record: 76°, 1993, 2001, and 2010)
Sterling, VA: 80° (old record: 77°, 1963)
Washington, DC: 80° (tied record set in 1902)

Newark reached 70° for the 175th time this year. The old record was 173 days, which was set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010.

Through 4 pm today, New York City has picked up 52.54" of rain. As a result, 2021 currently ranks as New York City's 31st wettest year on record. By the end of this week, following a second storm, 2021 will very likely rank among New York City's 20 wettest years on record. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October.

The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 25 4 pm):

Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004)
Buffalo: 42° (record: 39°, 1971)
Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017)
New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971)
New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971)
New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971)
Newark: 45° (record: 45°, 1971)
Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931)
Poughkeepsie: 36° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996)
White Plains: 41° (record: 40°, 1971)

In northern Maine, Caribou experienced its first freeze of the season earlier today. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period.

The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

However, there is a chance that one could warmth return after a cooler than normal to near normal first week of November. The October 22-24 period saw a rare case where the AO was +0.75 or above while the NAO was -0.75 or below. There have been only 9 prior days during the second half of October (1950-2020), comprising just 0.8% of the period. Those days occurred during 1961, 1970, 1973, 1975, 2006, and 2008. In five of those six years, the first half of November saw warm anomalies in the Northeast. More than likely, the first half of November will wind up cooler than normal despite the above statistical data.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -6.38 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.899 today.

On October 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.783 (RMM). The October 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.602 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal).

 

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Ahead of a major storm that will bring a widespread 2"-4" rainfall with local amounts of 6" to the region, temperatures rose into the 70s across much of the region. Several locations reached or exceeded daily record high temperatures including:

Baltimore: 80° (old record: 77°, 1975 and 1931)
Philadelphia: 78° (old record: 76°, 1993, 2001, and 2010)
Sterling, VA: 80° (old record: 77°, 1963)
Washington, DC: 80° (tied record set in 1902)

Newark reached 70° for the 175th time this year. The old record was 173 days, which was set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010.

Through 4 pm today, New York City has picked up 52.54" of rain. As a result, 2021 currently ranks as New York City's 31st wettest year on record. By the end of this week, following a second storm, 2021 will very likely rank among New York City's 20 wettest years on record. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October.

The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 25 4 pm):

Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004)
Buffalo: 42° (record: 39°, 1971)
Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017)
New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971)
New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971)
New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971)
Newark: 45° (record: 45°, 1971)
Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931)
Poughkeepsie: 36° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996)
White Plains: 41° (record: 40°, 1971)

In northern Maine, Caribou experienced its first freeze of the season earlier today. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period.

The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

However, there is a chance that one could warmth return after a cooler than normal to near normal first week of November. The October 22-24 period saw a rare case where the AO was +0.75 or above while the NAO was -0.75 or below. There have been only 9 prior days during the second half of October (1950-2020), comprising just 0.8% of the period. Those days occurred during 1961, 1970, 1973, 1975, 2006, and 2008. In five of those six years, the first half of November saw warm anomalies in the Northeast. More than likely, the first half of November will wind up cooler than normal despite the above statistical data.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -6.38 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.899 today.

On October 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.783 (RMM). The October 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.602 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal).

 

How did Caribou get a freeze in this nearly tropical airmass and with all this cloudiness?

 

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I see we have wild parrots on long island!  a whole flock of them....I wonder how they got here and if they spend the winter here?

 

Feral Monk Parakeets are well established residents in the NY area. They build large communal nests, often around transformers which then act as central heating during the winter. Con Ed is consequently not fond of them.

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Morning thoughts…

Through 6 am, New York City had received 1.50” rain from the ongoing nor’easter. That brought 2021’s total precipitation to 54.04”, which ranks 2021 as the 21st wettest year on record.

Today will mostly cloudy, rainy, and increasingly windy as a powerful storm pounds the region. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 62°

Newark: 65°

Philadelphia: 64°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.3°; 15-Year: 63.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.4°; 15-Year: 63.6°

Rain will end overnight or early tomorrow. Another significant rainfall is likely later in the week.

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The last 6 days of October are averaging 59degs.(55/63), or +5.

Month to date is  63.4[+4.4].   October should end near  62.5[+4.5].

Reached 70 here yesterday.      Missed the rains up to midnight.

Today: 60-65, wind ene. and becoming gusty by 2pm., another 2" of rain for remainder of day, I guess.

60*(98%RH) here at 6am.  {was 58 at 4am}    63* at 7am.     64* at 7:30am.      Back to 60* at 9am.

59* at Noon.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Pacific air behind these fronts and storms. So it’s a less warm is the new cool pattern. But even closer to normal at the start of November will feel more fall-like. 
 

AB3F7B52-6539-4C97-B290-20BE8F0F1F00.thumb.png.55bcbd6852c51d1f61d7973e88e9f1d5.png

 

C20A27EE-2705-42CC-9527-BF424F754BE0.thumb.png.bd3373d8914fb1d74cb5ab65908dfcd7.png

 

 

It’s going to be PAC origin air until Canada gets seeded with cold, which is going to take awhile. You are going to need extended -EPO to do that. Transient -EPO won’t get it done 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s going to be PAC origin air until Canada gets seeded with cold, which is going to take awhile. You are going to need extended -EPO to do that. Transient -EPO won’t get it done 

Probably the only time that Memorial Day and July 4th weekends had colder than -10 departures followed by none through the end of October.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NYC004&year=2021&var=avg&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&dpi=100&_fmt=png

D6766FC4-B99C-4544-9E13-77D60A43414D.png.bb25ff0151c59f190c2410872f719b6e.png

 

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

November looks to be colder than normal 

I'll go out on a limb and say normal to slightly above normal. I don't see anything that is making me think below average versus what we have been seeing. Even after the storm today it isn't even getting all that cold for the time of year. 

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'll go out on a limb and say normal to slightly above normal. I don't see anything that is making me think below average versus what we have been seeing. Even after the storm today it isn't even getting all that cold for the time of year. 

I would just like to see a freeze before December at this point.

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'll go out on a limb and say normal to slightly above normal. I don't see anything that is making me think below average versus what we have been seeing. Even after the storm today it isn't even getting all that cold for the time of year. 

The problem is that some folks on Twitter are advertising that November is going to be a deep arctic freeze. That couldn’t be further from reality. It goes from insanely above normal to normal, maybe slightly below. You need to seed Canada with cold and that will take awhile. When we start November, all the air is still PAC maritime origin, not arctic or Siberian origin 

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21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The problem is that some folks on Twitter are advertising that November is going to be a deep arctic freeze. That couldn’t be further from reality. It goes from insanely above normal to normal, maybe slightly below. You need to seed Canada with cold and that will take awhile. When we start November, all the air is still PAC maritime origin, not arctic or Siberian origin 

that's mostly people just regurgitating what JB's peddling :arrowhead:

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An area of moderate to heavy rain will continue to push westward into the New York City Metro Area this evening. Overnight, a general 0.50"-1.00" with some higher amounts is likely.

Through 5 pm today, New York City has picked up 55.28" of rain. As a result, 2021 currently ranks as New York City's 20th wettest year on record. Another significant rainfall, probably along the lines of 0.50"-1.50" with locally higher amounts, is possible late in the week.

No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October. It will likely turn cooler, but not exceptionally cold, during the start of November. The duration of the cooler weather remains uncertain.

The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 26 4 pm):

Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004)
Buffalo: 42° (record: 39°, 1971)
Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017)
New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971)
New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971)
New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971)
Newark: 45° (record: 45°, 1971)
Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931)
Poughkeepsie: 36° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996)
White Plains: 41° (record: 40°, 1971)

The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +3.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.374 today.

On October 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.761 (RMM). The October 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.782 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal).

 

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Today's rainfall at NYC would already be a record for the 27th or 28th but has to get past 3.40" by midnight to beat 1943 for today's crown. If it does that, I believe that will be seven daily records for the year. 1983 had nine and 1913 had eight. The record for the 27th is much lower, only 1.88" from 2003. I suppose it's possible both records could go and then the year would be in that second place tie with 1913. 

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Next week looks like the first marginally trackable threat of the year for the remote possibility of flakes. Most guidance shows a shortwave trying to round the base of a trof mid-week ushering in some seasonably cold Canadian air.

Obviously there's significant variation between the models in terms of the strength, orientation, and position of the features. But maybe there could be some mixing in the NW hills on the backside of a frontal wave? The GFS shows a wintry looking clipper lake week too. Best chances for anything wintry next week are probably elevated lake effect regions and the NE mountains. But I think the long-range winter storm tracking season is just about to begin.

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