October 2021

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of October are averaging 59degs.(55/63), or +5.

Month to date is  63.4[+4.4].   October should end near  62.5[+4.5].

Reached 70 here yesterday.      Missed the rains up to midnight.

Today: 60-65, wind ene. and becoming gusty by 2pm., another 2" of rain for remainder of day, I guess.

60*(98%RH) here at 6am.  {was 58 at 4am}    63* at 7am.     64* at 7:30am.      Back to 60* at 9am.

59* at Noon.

[bluewave]

Pacific air behind these fronts and storms. So it’s a less warm is the new cool pattern. But even closer to normal at the start of November will feel more fall-like. 
 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Pacific air behind these fronts and storms. So it’s a less warm is the new cool pattern. But even closer to normal at the start of November will feel more fall-like. 
 

 

 

 

It’s going to be PAC origin air until Canada gets seeded with cold, which is going to take awhile. You are going to need extended -EPO to do that. Transient -EPO won’t get it done 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s going to be PAC origin air until Canada gets seeded with cold, which is going to take awhile. You are going to need extended -EPO to do that. Transient -EPO won’t get it done 

November looks to be colder than normal 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s going to be PAC origin air until Canada gets seeded with cold, which is going to take awhile. You are going to need extended -EPO to do that. Transient -EPO won’t get it done 

Probably the only time that Memorial Day and July 4th weekends had colder than -10 departures followed by none through the end of October.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NYC004&year=2021&var=avg&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[uncle W]

21 hours ago, uncle W said:

 

someone told me this is common in my part of the island...First one I ever seen here...

[JustinRP37]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

November looks to be colder than normal 

I'll go out on a limb and say normal to slightly above normal. I don't see anything that is making me think below average versus what we have been seeing. Even after the storm today it isn't even getting all that cold for the time of year. 

[WarrenCtyWx]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'll go out on a limb and say normal to slightly above normal. I don't see anything that is making me think below average versus what we have been seeing. Even after the storm today it isn't even getting all that cold for the time of year. 

I would just like to see a freeze before December at this point.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'll go out on a limb and say normal to slightly above normal. I don't see anything that is making me think below average versus what we have been seeing. Even after the storm today it isn't even getting all that cold for the time of year. 

The problem is that some folks on Twitter are advertising that November is going to be a deep arctic freeze. That couldn’t be further from reality. It goes from insanely above normal to normal, maybe slightly below. You need to seed Canada with cold and that will take awhile. When we start November, all the air is still PAC maritime origin, not arctic or Siberian origin 

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The problem is that some folks on Twitter are advertising that November is going to be a deep arctic freeze. That couldn’t be further from reality. It goes from insanely above normal to normal, maybe slightly below. You need to seed Canada with cold and that will take awhile. When we start November, all the air is still PAC maritime origin, not arctic or Siberian origin 

that's mostly people just regurgitating what JB's peddling 

[donsutherland1]

An area of moderate to heavy rain will continue to push westward into the New York City Metro Area this evening. Overnight, a general 0.50"-1.00" with some higher amounts is likely.

Through 5 pm today, New York City has picked up 55.28" of rain. As a result, 2021 currently ranks as New York City's 20th wettest year on record. Another significant rainfall, probably along the lines of 0.50"-1.50" with locally higher amounts, is possible late in the week.

No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October. It will likely turn cooler, but not exceptionally cold, during the start of November. The duration of the cooler weather remains uncertain.

The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 26 4 pm):

Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004)
Buffalo: 42° (record: 39°, 1971)
Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017)
New York City-JFK: 47° (record: 46°, 1971)
New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971)
New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1946 and 1971)
Newark: 45° (record: 45°, 1971)
Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931)
Poughkeepsie: 36° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996)
White Plains: 41° (record: 40°, 1971)

The MJO had completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude during the first half of October. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +3.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.374 today.

On October 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.761 (RMM). The October 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.782 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal).

 

[Roger Smith]

Today's rainfall at NYC would already be a record for the 27th or 28th but has to get past 3.40" by midnight to beat 1943 for today's crown. If it does that, I believe that will be seven daily records for the year. 1983 had nine and 1913 had eight. The record for the 27th is much lower, only 1.88" from 2003. I suppose it's possible both records could go and then the year would be in that second place tie with 1913. 

[eduggs]

Next week looks like the first marginally trackable threat of the year for the remote possibility of flakes. Most guidance shows a shortwave trying to round the base of a trof mid-week ushering in some seasonably cold Canadian air.

Obviously there's significant variation between the models in terms of the strength, orientation, and position of the features. But maybe there could be some mixing in the NW hills on the backside of a frontal wave? The GFS shows a wintry looking clipper lake week too. Best chances for anything wintry next week are probably elevated lake effect regions and the NE mountains. But I think the long-range winter storm tracking season is just about to begin.

[MJO812]

Moderate rain here in Brooklyn

[Rjay]

6 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'll go out on a limb and say normal to slightly above normal. I don't see anything that is making me think below average versus what we have been seeing. Even after the storm today it isn't even getting all that cold for the time of year. 

I'm going -1.5.  I usually don't go negative and for good reason so we'll see.  

[JustinRP37]

41 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I'm going -1.5.  I usually don't go negative and for good reason so we'll see.  

That’s a pretty big cool down there and bold call. I’m just not seeing much on the extended that makes me think these overnight lows truly get to sustained below average. Few nights with cloud cover and some humidity and that -1.5 call will be tough given the cards we have been dealt. I think no doubt it will be cooler than it has been but not ready to say firmly below average. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

That’s a pretty big cool down there and bold call. I’m just not seeing much on the extended that makes me think these overnight lows truly get to sustained below average. Few nights with cloud cover and some humidity and that -1.5 call will be tough given the cards we have been dealt. I think no doubt it will be cooler than it has been but not ready to say firmly below average. 

Our new 30 year averages played a big role in going more than -1.  

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

that's mostly people just regurgitating what JB's peddling 

Not at all

There are many people who think we shift to a colder pattern . The mjo is a big part of it.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will become partly cloudy. Winds will gradually subside. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 58°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 65°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 60.6°; 15-Year: 60.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 61.9°; 15-Year: 62.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.1°; 15-Year: 63.2°

Another significant rainfall is likely late Friday into Saturday.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(54/62), or +4.

Month to date is  63.2[+4.4].       October should end at  62.4[+4.5].

Reached 66 yesterday---but that was at Midnight---64 during the day.     Central Park had 3.30"+0.23" the day before.

Today: 58-62, wind nw. and gusty till sunset, cloudy.

58*(85%RH) here at 6am.         60* at Noon.     61* at 3pm.

[MJO812]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the models are continuing to struggle with the influence of the record SSTs to our east. So the WAR puts up more resistance to the cold front to our west. This has been a common theme in recent years.

New run

Old run

 

There is alot of fuel out there when we do get cold weather with a storm.

[JustinRP37]

10 hours ago, Rjay said:

Our new 30 year averages played a big role in going more than -1.  

Yeah I can see that. I just really think these overnight lows are going to prove more difficult than we anticipate. 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

There is alot of fuel out there when we do get cold weather with a storm.

That’s one reason I think even if we have a warm winter, we will at least get one or two huge snowfalls. I am just hopeful that we finally have a white Christmas again.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

There is alot of fuel out there when we do get cold weather with a storm.

As long as the track doesn't tuck.

Hopefully yesterday's storm will be a precursor to our winter storm tracks. 

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

That’s one reason I think even if we have a warm winter, we will at least get one or two huge snowfalls. I am just hopeful that we finally have a white Christmas again.

I almost had a white Christmas last year but the rain washed it away.

[MJO812]

LA Ninas are notorious for early starts to winter and then a warmup in the 2nd half. Let's hope we get blocking this winter.

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

LA Ninas are notorious for early starts to winter and then a warmup in the 2nd half. Let's hope we get blocking this winter.

Maybe, but our long term patterns show getting a late start to winter, and having prolonging cold in the Spring. 40 degrees and rain in May is getting old.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LA Ninas are notorious for early starts to winter and then a warmup in the 2nd half. Let's hope we get blocking this winter.

We’ll see how well the extended EPS does with its weaker SPV and stronger blocking forecast to start December. 
 

 

[nycwinter]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LA Ninas are notorious for early starts to winter and then a warmup in the 2nd half. Let's hope we get blocking this winter.

canada is so much warmer  at this time of year relatively speaking of course then even last year..at this time..

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll see how well the extended EPS does with its weaker SPV and stronger blocking forecast to start December. 
 

 

Im curious how they both do this winter because they haven't been accurate at all during the past few winters and for this past storm.  The upgrades ruined the eps and euro.