snowman19 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said: Check out your posts from last November..All doom and gloom The only thing that saved last winter from being a wall to wall dumpster fire was the SSWE in January that gave us 3 weeks of winter in February (2/1-2/22). It was a 3 week winter, the one lone snowstorm in mid-December that was melted down to nothing in less a week, 60’s on Christmas Eve. Nothing at all in January, nothing at all in March. Had it not been for that SSW, it would have been one of the worst winters of all time, right up there with 97-98, 01-02 and 11-12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 42 minutes ago, psv88 said: I don’t even remember last winter lol basically a 3 week winter. One storm around 12/17 with a foot area wide, big xmas warmup-Jan mild/dry, Feb 1-21 big snows, then March was fairly average temp wise but no snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 72 degrees here. No surprise that temps went higher than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Remember when the models had Monday as cool and wet? Now we get warm sectored. The usual warm spots in NJ may make another run on 80° with enough sun. New run Old run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: To be fair most were thinking we were doomed last Nov. I did too. I thought it would be a miracle if we made it normal snow and most us made it to 40”. I would say the tea leaves so far generally indicate a lousy/warm winter again but lots of factors at play besides just La Niña which the NWS prediction essentially took Nina climo off the printer and used that for the winter outlook. Blocking ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Remember when the models had Monday as cool and wet? Now we get warm sectored. The usual warm spots in NJ may make another run on 80° with enough sun. New run Old run Ridge once again pushed the storm further north but we will still get rain. 2 rainstorms on the models for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Many of our very good winters consist of one good storm and a great three weeks of winter. Any winter with one great month (February) and one decent month (December) should at least warrant a "very good" rating in my book. Otherwise the same could be said about winters like 04-05 and 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: Remember when the models had Monday as cool and wet? Now we get warm sectored. The usual warm spots in NJ may make another run on 80° with enough sun. New run Old run Yeah that seems to be the question, is Monday in or out of the warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The only thing that saved last winter from being a wall to wall dumpster fire was the SSWE in January that gave us 3 weeks of winter in February (2/1-2/22). It was a 3 week winter, the one lone snowstorm in mid-December that was melted down to nothing in less a week, 60’s on Christmas Eve. Nothing at all in January, nothing at all in March. Had it not been for that SSW, it would have been one of the worst winters of all time, right up there with 97-98, 01-02 and 11-12 Ah yes, had the winter things that had happened last winter, not happened, then it would have been a terrible winter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Blocking ftw Give me some blocking and our well above normal SST and lets roll the dice on a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 13 hours ago, Rjay said: Decent look if it was winter. A bit flat out west though. Temperature would be a issue with a flow from the pac 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 13 hours ago, snowman19 said: Evidence is mounting for a rebound and strengthening of the SPV next month: The PV gain strength during last November as well. It was one of the reasons the month started out with 70 degree weather. It eventually started breaking down in December and never recovered 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The only thing that saved last winter from being a wall to wall dumpster fire was the SSWE in January that gave us 3 weeks of winter in February (2/1-2/22). It was a 3 week winter, the one lone snowstorm in mid-December that was melted down to nothing in less a week, 60’s on Christmas Eve. Nothing at all in January, nothing at all in March. Had it not been for that SSW, it would have been one of the worst winters of all time, right up there with 97-98, 01-02 and 11-12 Lolz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: basically a 3 week winter. One storm around 12/17 with a foot area wide, big xmas warmup-Jan mild/dry, Feb 1-21 big snows, then March was fairly average temp wise but no snow Last February was one of the best ever around here. 36" of snow and wall to wall snowcover for the month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Just now, FPizz said: Last February was one of the best ever around here. 36" of snow and wall to wall snowcover for the month. we capitalized for sure. I had a good 20 inch snowpack by the end of it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Just now, FPizz said: Last February was one of the best ever around here. 36" of snow and wall to wall snowcover for the month. Historic 3-4 week stretch at many locations in NNJ and nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Historic 3-4 week stretch at many locations in NNJ and nyc. I think overall counting the December snow, my area had 45 days or so of snowcover since it went into March. That is extremely rare. We might have had a 25 day stretch of "winter", but it was pretty epic and one I'll remember for long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Just now, FPizz said: I think overall counting the December snow, my area had 45 days or so of snowcover since it went into March. That is extremely rare. We might have had a 25 day stretch of winter, but it was pretty epic and one I'll remember for long time. Agree. We haven’t had a stretch like that since 14-15. What made it even better was how our area was in the sweet spot all month. NYC for February 2021 26 inches of snow -1.7 below avg temp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Lolz You don’t believe that if it wasn’t for the SSW, that would have been a horrible winter? It saved February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The PV gain strength during last November as well. It was one of the reasons the month started out with 70 degree weather. It eventually started breaking down in December and never recovered When I initially heard about the polar vortex I started to panic a bit, but looking at that graph it isn’t that bad. Yes, the polar vortex recovers and strengthens to above average in mid November, but it starts to weaken again back to average by early December. If that’s true it means we are ****ed…. for November which isn’t even winter anyways. I’m not going to panic about a likely snowless November, as long as the polar vortex doesn’t deepen from dec-mar New England should be fine in my opinion. I am still extremely bullish on this winter. I believe it will be the best winter since 2014-2015 (and that says something because 2017-2018 was really good) NYC north. South of there id be more nervous with the increasing strength of the La Niña. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You don’t believe that if it wasn’t for the SSW, that would have been a horrible winter? It saved February I believe it was a huge reason why February turned out so well for snow lovers. I just think it’s a bit ridiculous to say “if this didn’t happen” or “or that didn’t happen” it would have been a awful winter. You’re just posting in hypotheticals to fit your agenda here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 minute ago, George001 said: When I initially heard about the polar vortex I started to panic a bit, but looking at that graph it isn’t that bad. Yes, the polar vortex recovers and strengthens to above average in mid November, but it starts to weaken again back to average by early December. If that’s true it means we are ****ed…. for November which isn’t even winter anyways. I’m not going to panic about a likely snowless November, as long as the polar vortex doesn’t deepen from dec-mar New England should be fine in my opinion. Agree. It will be very important to see how the vortex looks at the end of December. We don’t want to see it gain ridiculous strength like 19-20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Historic 3-4 week stretch at many locations in NNJ and nyc. 26 inches here in February with 18 inches in early February and two 4 inches snowfalls after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 You know winter is coming once Allsnow posts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Euro has a nice rainstorm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Agree. It will be very important to see how the vortex looks at the end of December. We don’t want to see it gain ridiculous strength like 19-20 Yeah if that happens then it’s time to start panicking. I remember things looked good initially the 2019-2020 winter, many called for a big winter and it even started off well. In my area in eastern mass we got a nice storm in early December, and there were a lot of big storms on the models. I was super excited, but then within a week the long range models shifted from forecasting a polar vortex displacement to a rapid deepening of the polar vortex and consolidation over the North Pole. After Mid December or so the new pattern took hold and didn’t let up, leading to what started as a promising winter turning into a 2011-2012 redux. I do remember Isotherm went against the grain and called for a mild winter that year, and ended up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2nd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Things are gonna get a lot more active next week. Big south'easter possible just before Halloween. Lots of cooler, easterly flow though we do warm sector Monday hard. Think 80F to 50F type transition possible Monday-Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Ridge once again pushed the storm further north but we will still get rain. 2 rainstorms on the models for next week We almost always get significant storms with such a strong -NAO pattern. But it took a while this month since the -NAO linked up with the SE Ridge and lead to record warmth and storm suppression. Now the record Pacific Jet is able to undercut the ridge. So we are getting two big cutoff storms next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 https://ibb.co/pjLHdtB -PNA is going to persist through Nov 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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