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October 2021


Stormlover74
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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, February 2015 was our only top 10 coldest winter month since 2010. But there have been 9 top 10 warmest winter months since 2010.  Funny how the 14° warmer February 2016 went below 0° but 2015 couldn’t. 
 

 

February 2015 reminds me of January 2004, neither went below 0.  It's just really hard to go below 0.  JFK hasn't gone below 0 since January 1985 which surprises me, I know for sure I went below zero in January 1994 on the south shore of western Nassau, -3 as a matter of fact.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 60 degs.(54/67), +4.

Month to date is  65.3[+4.9].       Could be 63.7[+4.2] by the 25th.

Heavy rain gone for the 29th.       A late 70 reading still possible.

Only reached 62 here yesterday as sun shower hit around 2:15pm.

Today: 59-62,winds w. to nw., gusty, cloudy.

50*(80%RH) here at 6am.       52* at 9am.       57* at Noon.     60* at 3pm.      Reached 61* at 4pm.       55* at 6pm.

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Newark finally made it to 49°. This was the latest first 40s of the season by 5 days. The other records were in the last few years with the delayed falls. Boston is getting close at 50° to their latest 40s. NYC made 2nd latest.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2018 05-01 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 47 164
1973 05-19 (1973) 42 10-11 (1973) 49 144
2016 05-16 (2016) 40 10-10 (2016) 47 146
2002 05-23 (2002) 45 10-09 (2002) 48 138
2014 05-07 (2014) 47 10-05 (2014) 44 150
1988 05-12 (1988) 48 10-05 (1988) 48 145
1964 06-04 (1964) 48 10-05 (1964) 46 122


 

 

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Morning thoughts…

This morning, the temperature fell below 50° for the first time this season in Central Park. That is the second latest first occurrence on record. Boston is still waiting for its first 40s of the season. The old record was October 13, 2008. 

It will partly to mostly sunny and cool today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 60°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 63°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 63.6°; 15-Year: 64.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 65.2°; 15-Year: 66.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.4°; 15-Year: 67.0° 

Tomorrow will be another autumn-like day with readings mainly topping out in the lower 60s.

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS weeklies should be interesting later as the GEFS is showing possible coupling with the strat warming.  But we will have to see where the potential blocking sets up. If it’s  more south based, then it wouldn’t be too cool like we saw last winter.
 

 

We will have to see if it actually downwells into the lower stratosphere and troposphere, last week the models weren’t showing that happening. Also, HM just pointed this fact out: 

 

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51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah I felt like we got an extra month of summer this year

That’s really the new normal. I’m sure you have seen me talk about by sea ice theory. It just takes the Arctic take longer to cool when you need to time to create ice. 
Today is great! I love this weather when I get hot working I just shed the jacket. 

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s really the new normal. I’m sure you have seen me talk about by sea ice theory. It just takes the Arctic take longer to cool when you need to time to create ice. 
Today is great! I love this weather when I get hot working I just shed the jacket. 

yep-a later freeze/sea ice up north leads to warmer airmasses.   Also the great lakes are warmer which modifies cold air coming from the NW

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4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We will have to see if it actually downwells into the lower stratosphere and troposphere, last week the models weren’t showing that happening.

The milder south based blocking has been persistent since last December.

10-01 to 10-16…21

4BBC23FC-967F-4979-8433-62B68ED7B41B.gif.89df1a93028e1496ba84bf4857078054.gif

 

12-01-20 to 10-16-21

 

B7211A86-B358-4DDB-B624-C635AF9EDD30.gif.ece64a3f368c90569370aeb61c5fe996.gif

 

 

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