October 2021

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 78°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 65.1°; 15-Year: 66.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 66.6°; 15-Year: 67.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.9°; 15-Year: 68.7° 

A generally warmer than normal regime will continue into the weekend before a strong cold moves across the region.

Don looks like it will warm back up to upper 70s midweek next week and beyond?

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That would be great. We need the rain as things have really dried out the last couple weeks city, east.

And. To break the monotony of one of the most boring weather periods possible.

I really wish we could get a Cat 1 every year around this time, is that asking too much?  I want to see a Cat 1 make landfall in our area (ACY to MTP) once every year, that's not too destructive and they are fun to track.

When will the waters warm enough to make that happen?

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.(57/71), or +6.

Month to date is  65.2[+4.0].       Could be  64.8[+4.8] by the 22nd.

Reached 69* yesterday, no sun all day.

64*(95%RH) here at 6am.       70* at 11am.      71* at Noon       73* at 1pm.

Today:   76-80, w. to n. wind, clouds/sun.

[SRRTA22]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I really wish we could get a Cat 1 every year around this time, is that asking too much?  I want to see a Cat 1 make landfall in our area (ACY to MTP) once every year, that's not too destructive and they are fun to track.

When will the waters warm enough to make that happen?

We've been getting a TC in some form every year for the last few years lol

[bluewave]

The first half of fall is one of the warmest on record. No surprise to see the recent years filling out the rest of the list. The next few days will add to the warmth. 
 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 13	Missing Count
1	2018-10-13	68.6	0
2	2017-10-13	68.1	0
3	1959-10-13	68.0	0
4	2021-10-13	67.9	0
-	2005-10-13	67.9	0
5	1961-10-13	67.8	0
6	2015-10-13	67.5	0
7	2016-10-13	67.3	0
-	2011-10-13	67.3	0
8	2007-10-13	67.0	0
9	1973-10-13	66.5	0
10	1971-10-13	66.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 13	Missing Count
1	2018-10-13	68.7	0
2	2005-10-13	68.2	0
3	2017-10-13	67.9	0
4	2021-10-13	67.8	0
5	2015-10-13	67.0	0
6	2007-10-13	66.7	0
7	2011-10-13	66.6	0
-	1990-10-13	66.6	0
-	1983-10-13	66.6	0
-	1980-10-13	66.6	0
8	2016-10-13	65.8	0
-	2002-10-13	65.8	0
9	1998-10-13	65.7	0
10	1971-10-13	65.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 13	Missing Count
1	1961-10-13	71.5	0
2	2021-10-13	70.9	0
3	1959-10-13	70.8	0
4	2005-10-13	70.6	0
5	2018-10-13	70.3	0
6	2017-10-13	70.0	0
7	2007-10-13	69.5	0
8	2015-10-13	69.4	0
9	1973-10-13	69.2	0
10	1983-10-13	69.1	0

[SnoSki14]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don looks like it will warm back up to upper 70s midweek next week and beyond?

 

Too early to say that but a day or two like that is possible. I'd go with low 70s though.

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Too early to say that but a day or two like that is possible. I'd go with low 70s though.

Amazing we cool down to normal then right back up to above/well above....

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I really wish we could get a Cat 1 every year around this time, is that asking too much?  I want to see a Cat 1 make landfall in our area (ACY to MTP) once every year, that's not too destructive and they are fun to track.

When will the waters warm enough to make that happen?

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a battle between warm ups and cool downs as the strat warm and +PNA tries to change up the stagnant pattern.

Given the strong -PDO/La Niña/-PMM, I seriously doubt any +PNA spike will have any staying power. It would very likely be a transient change 

[SACRUS]

 

60 hours of late summer warmth with sun returning and near records today/ Fri and part of saturday ahead of the front.  Kind of a back and forth (bias warm) Sat (10/16) through sat (10/23).  Coolest air of the season likely Sun (10/17) and Mon (10/18) before moderating and warming back up mid next week.  Cooler again by the end of next week and next weekend.  Should see less cloudy days next week and could allow temps to overperform maxes.

[snowman19]

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Given the strong -PDO/La Niña/-PMM, I seriously doubt any +PNA spike will have any staying power. It would very likely be a transient change 

Also to add, this La Niña is very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere). Another reason why I expect any +PNA to be short-lived. Last year’s Niña was not coupled which explained the extended  +PNA runs last winter 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don looks like it will warm back up to upper 70s midweek next week and beyond?

 

There will be another warmup next week and it warmth could persist through the end of the month. 

[MJO812]

71 here in Brooklyn . AC on in the car.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Amazing we cool down to normal then right back up to above/well above....

Well it's different than what we've been having and at least it'll feel like fall for once. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Also to add, this La Niña is very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere). Another reason why I expect any +PNA to be short-lived. Last year’s Niña was not coupled which explained the extended  +PNA runs last winter 

Best opportunities will come early probably up till the new year and maybe late in the season.

Jan-Feb will likely be very mild. 

[MJO812]

53 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Best opportunities will come early probably up till the new year and maybe late in the season.

Jan-Feb will likely be very mild. 

Depends on the strength of the La Nina and other factors. All bets will be off with blocking. 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Best opportunities will come early probably up till the new year and maybe late in the season.

Jan-Feb will likely be very mild. 

Bookends winter isn't a bad rough call right now.  Niña/stratwarm favors some early action, then we mild up before catching some more action in March when the wavelengths shorten.

 

Still so many variables in the mix though and, as we all know, it ultimately boils down to blocking.

[Tatamy]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I really wish we could get a Cat 1 every year around this time, is that asking too much?  I want to see a Cat 1 make landfall in our area (ACY to MTP) once every year, that's not too destructive and they are fun to track.

When will the waters warm enough to make that happen?

You need to be careful what you wish for.  If a Cat 1 does make landfall somewhere in the area you outlined it will be destructive for at least some of us.  I had the opportunity to see the tornado damage done in Bucks Cty, PA this year by Ida and trust me you would not want to see that in your neighborhood.

[donsutherland1]

At 12 pm, temperatures in New York City were as follows: Central Park: 71°, JFK: 76°, and LGA: 74°. Central Park is reporting the lowest temperature among New York City's three major stations. This is not an anomaly. This is now an increasingly frequent outcome in October, especially when it comes to maximum temperatures.

During 1961-90, Central Park's high temperature was the lowest or tied with the lowest reading on 28% of days. During the 1991-20 period, Central Park recorded the lowest temperature on 64% of days. During the October 1-13, 2021 period, Central Park's high temperature has been the lowest or tied with the lowest on all days. Moreover, between 1961-90 and 1991-20, JFK (+0.5°) and LGA (+1.6°) saw increasing high temperatures. In contrast, Central Park saw a decline in its average October high temperature of 0.6°.

Below are some tables that illustrate how things have evolved. The use of regression equations developed from the 1961-90 period (NYC is the dependent variable; JFK and LGA are the independent variables) before the tree issue arose suggests that the October 1-13, 2021 mean temperature in Central Park would be 67.7°. Instead, the mean was 65.2°, a large 2.5° difference.

[CIK62]

64*(95%RH) here at 6am.       70* at 11am.      71* at Noon       73* at 1pm.       74* at 1:30pm.       77* at 3pm.      79* at 4pm. .......Reached 80* shortly after, for about 30mins.

IT LOOKED LIKE THIS AT THE PEAK TODAY:

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 12 pm, temperatures in New York City were as follows: Central Park: 71°, JFK: 76°, and LGA: 74°. Central Park is reporting the lowest temperature among New York City's three major stations. This is not an anomaly. This is now an increasingly frequent outcome in October, especially when it comes to maximum temperatures.

During 1961-90, Central Park's high temperature was the lowest or tied with the lowest reading on 28% of days. During the 1991-20 period, Central Park recorded the lowest temperature on 64% of days. During the October 1-13, 2021 period, Central Park's high temperature has been the lowest or tied with the lowest on all days. Moreover, between 1961-90 and 1991-20, JFK (+0.5°) and LGA (+1.6°) saw increasing high temperatures. In contrast, Central Park saw a decline in its average October high temperature of 0.6°.

Below are some tables that illustrate how things have evolved. The use of regression equations developed from the 1961-90 period (NYC is the dependent variable; JFK and LGA are the independent variables) before the tree issue arose suggests that the October 1-13, 2021 mean temperature in Central Park would be 67.7°. Instead, the mean was 65.2°, a large 2.5° difference.

It’s a shame the higher up officials at the NWS let the trees grow over the sensors starting around the 1990s. We have demonstrated how the high temperatures have cooled relative to other stations since then. The cold bias was recently fixed at the Albany airport. But that fix may have been prioritized due to flight safety. The accuracy of the climate record of the biggest city in America should be just as important even though it’s not at an airport.

https://altamontenterprise.com/09162021/albany-airport-needs-more-accurate-thermometer

Albany airport needs more accurate thermometer

One would think the National Weather Service, being the steward of accurate weather detail, would seek to have an accurate thermometer. We all have heard that a global average warming of just 1.5C (about 2.5F) could wreak havoc on our planet. So, if the thermometer at the Albany International Airport is measuring 2.5 degrees too low, as I believe it is, this cool bias reading might mask any significant warming.

Assuming that is the case, an accurate thermometer is just as critical to the aviation industry. If the actual temperature is 34 F, but the Automated Surface Observing System thermometer records a temperature of 32 F, the pilot might have to be concerned about freezing rain versus liquid rain, which makes a huge operational impact. 
 

Perhaps the worst part of all this, is that our monthly records with this known cool bias, keep going out to the world and would suggest our climate is locally cooling, when really it is not. 

The folks at the local National Weather Service in Albany are not to blame. They have done all they can to inform the higher officials of the problem. I suggest you call your local Congress member and hopefully they can put pressure on the higher officials of National Weather Service to change the thermometer before further damage can be done to the climate records and have a reliable accurate temperature sensor.

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202109301152-KALY-NOUS41-PNSALY

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2021

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REPLACEMENT OF THERMOMETER AT
ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECONDITIONING CENTER (NWSRC) REPLACED
THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM THERMOMETER AND ASSOCIATED
ELECTRONICS AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY, 
SEPTEMBER 29, 2021 AT 9:30 AM. THE THERMOMETER WAS REPLACED WITH A
MODIFIED SENSOR AND CALIBRATED WITH A MODIFIED ALIGNMENT 
PROCEDURE.

A REFERENCE THERMOMETER, RUNNING SIDE BY SIDE WITH THE ASOS THERMOMETER,
HAS COLLECTED DATA FOR COMPARISON SINCE JUNE. THE PREVIOUS 
THERMOMETERS INSTALLED SINCE JULY 17, 2020 LIKELY HAD A COLD BIAS 
(THERMOMETER RECORDS A COLDER TEMPERATURE THAN THE ACTUAL 
TEMPERATURE).

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE THE INVESTIGATION ON THE
COLD BIAS IN THE ALBANY TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE PERIOD JULY 
17, 2020 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29, 2021. 

PLEASE CONTACT SUSAN BUCHANAN, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 301-427-9000 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

The temperature at JFK Airport hit 80 degrees today. That is the latest such temperature since October 19, 2016. The average last such temperature occurs on September 27th (1991-2020). During the 1981-2010 period, the average last 80-degree reading occurred on September 24th.

[LoboLeader1]

 

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 76 here, gorgeous day to be outdoors.

[lee59]

77 degree high here so far today.

[dWave]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s a shame the higher up officials at the NWS let the trees grow over the sensors starting around the 1990s. We have demonstrated how the high temperatures have cooled relative to other stations since then. The cold bias was recently fixed at the Albany airport. But that fix may have been prioritized due to flight safety. The accuracy of the climate record of the biggest city in America should be just as important even though it’s not at an airport.

https://altamontenterprise.com/09162021/albany-airport-needs-more-accurate-thermometer

Albany airport needs more accurate thermometer

One would think the National Weather Service, being the steward of accurate weather detail, would seek to have an accurate thermometer. We all have heard that a global average warming of just 1.5C (about 2.5F) could wreak havoc on our planet. So, if the thermometer at the Albany International Airport is measuring 2.5 degrees too low, as I believe it is, this cool bias reading might mask any significant warming.

Assuming that is the case, an accurate thermometer is just as critical to the aviation industry. If the actual temperature is 34 F, but the Automated Surface Observing System thermometer records a temperature of 32 F, the pilot might have to be concerned about freezing rain versus liquid rain, which makes a huge operational impact. 
 

Perhaps the worst part of all this, is that our monthly records with this known cool bias, keep going out to the world and would suggest our climate is locally cooling, when really it is not. 

The folks at the local National Weather Service in Albany are not to blame. They have done all they can to inform the higher officials of the problem. I suggest you call your local Congress member and hopefully they can put pressure on the higher officials of National Weather Service to change the thermometer before further damage can be done to the climate records and have a reliable accurate temperature sensor.

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202109301152-KALY-NOUS41-PNSALY

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2021

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REPLACEMENT OF THERMOMETER AT
ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECONDITIONING CENTER (NWSRC) REPLACED
THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM THERMOMETER AND ASSOCIATED
ELECTRONICS AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY, 
SEPTEMBER 29, 2021 AT 9:30 AM. THE THERMOMETER WAS REPLACED WITH A
MODIFIED SENSOR AND CALIBRATED WITH A MODIFIED ALIGNMENT 
PROCEDURE.

A REFERENCE THERMOMETER, RUNNING SIDE BY SIDE WITH THE ASOS THERMOMETER,
HAS COLLECTED DATA FOR COMPARISON SINCE JUNE. THE PREVIOUS 
THERMOMETERS INSTALLED SINCE JULY 17, 2020 LIKELY HAD A COLD BIAS 
(THERMOMETER RECORDS A COLDER TEMPERATURE THAN THE ACTUAL 
TEMPERATURE).

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE THE INVESTIGATION ON THE
COLD BIAS IN THE ALBANY TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE PERIOD JULY 
17, 2020 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 29, 2021. 

PLEASE CONTACT SUSAN BUCHANAN, DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 301-427-9000 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

 

 

I can't see NWS doing anything besides the status quo. It would take some tragedy unfortunately, like a catastrophic heat wave that was underestimated due to a pigeon hole focus on Central Park readings.

Better off trying to get media to incorporate other NYC stations more prominently in their forecasts etc.

[lee59]

Maybe they figure the foliage only affects it about 1/2 the year, so no rush.  Actually this leads me to think how the temperatures compare to other stations during winter months.

[bluewave]

The long range forecast into early November is more uncertain in the new extended EPS. The blocking looks less impressive now. Maybe the strat warming is having trouble coupling with the troposphere? If that is the case, then  any cool down would be less impressive than earlier forecasts were hinting at. We’ll have to just wait and see…

New run November 1-7

 

Old run

 

[MJO812]

82 here

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

82 here

4th of July weekend was cooler than today