Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,971
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Avira789Wx
    Newest Member
    Avira789Wx
    Joined

2021-22 Winter Discussion


Hoosier
 Share

Recommended Posts

07-08 was a good one over here.  Consistent snows December - February with a normal amount in March.  It was the 3rd snowiest winter on record at GRR.  I get the feeling that is setting the bar pretty high, but something above average is certainly a possibility.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Honestly I think too many are latching onto the 2nd Nina year as being the main driver of the pattern when we really haven't had many to begin with and the 2 moderate 2nd year Nina we have had were polar opposite, meaning there isn't much value there.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

When he doesn't let politics get in the way he has a wealth of knowledge that very few meteorologist have. I agree though. Climate change is very real 

Bastardi is an idiot, straight up.

 

There is no "wealth of knowledge" over there, I can assure you of that. 

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Would really love snow for the holidays. It's been a while 

We had a nice one last year, about 3 inches Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Snow showers all day as well. Pretty nice. That pretty much guarantees us here in central Ohio see no snow for Christmas over the next 20 or so years! LOL

  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/19/2021 at 3:01 PM, Stebo said:

Honestly I think too many are latching onto the 2nd Nina year as being the main driver of the pattern when we really haven't had many to begin with and the 2 moderate 2nd year Nina we have had were polar opposite, meaning there isn't much value there.

Just when you think you've got ENSO figured out, climate change comes along and throws a wrench into the cogs. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Just when you think you've got ENSO figured out, climate change comes along and throws a wrench into the cogs. 

There are way too many ripples in the system to put any faith in analogs. 

It could be a +5 winter or -5.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Just when you think you've got ENSO figured out, climate change comes along and throws a wrench into the cogs. 

Also true, it could literally be anything. Look at last February, who saw crippling cold that deep into the south. If someone says they did, I want the mega million numbers too.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Jonger said:

There are way too many ripples in the system to put any faith in analogs. 

It could be a +5 winter or -5.

 

It's true. Nothing plays by the rules any more. 2007-08 analog gives a warm fuzzy, but who really knows. 2017-18 also had a hot October and turned into a pretty good winter for some. It certainly featured one of the colder and snowier holiday weeks in many moons.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

it's obv good if u want snow, it's bad if you called for warm and dry

How often do we even get warm and dry in the winter? I'd say that probably the least likely scenario in the winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

How often do we even get warm and dry in the winter? I'd say that probably the least likely scenario in the winter.

2001/2002 is the WAD winter here but year WAW seems like the right call

would be nice to break the regional drought and keep the lakes full

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

After I posted those CPC forecast maps yesterday, I thought they looked familiar. On the left is this year's predictions and last year's is on the right. Cut and paste?

CPC Forecast Comparison 2021-2022.jpg

ENSO factors in very heavily to their outlooks.  I also heard directly from Dr. Uccellini at one of the conferences that long term warming factors into the outlooks, which is why you typically won't see a ton of blues on the seasonal outlooks.  This is even more true once you get out to the 6-12 month outlooks.  You'll basically never see any blue anywhere on those.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Stebo said:

How often do we even get warm and dry in the winter? I'd say that probably the least likely scenario in the winter.

 

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

2001/2002 is the WAD winter here but year WAW seems like the right call

would be nice to break the regional drought and keep the lakes full

Put these lists below together based off of +/-3F from average temps and +/-2" from average precip for DJF.

 

Significantly warm/dry winters are very rare... Where as significantly warm/wet, cold/dry and cold/wet are a bit more common.

 

Warm/Dry Winters
2001-2: 32.5F & 3.15" (Neutral)
1930-31: 32.4F & 1.60"

Warm/Wet Winters
1982-83: 30.9F & 11.48" (Strong El Nino)
1959-60: 29.9.F & 8.89"
1907-08: 29.4F & 8.50"
1879-80: 35.2F & 8.91"
1875-76: 33.6F & 9.47"
1873-74: 30.2F & 9.42"

Cold/Dry Winters
2014-15: 23.0F & 3.65" (Moderate El Nino)
1976-77: 19.0F & 2.30" (Moderate El Nino)
1962-63: 19.2F & 1.85" (Neutral)
1944-45: 23.3F & 3.08:
1919-20: 22.0F & 1.94"
1898-99: 21.7F & 3.29"
1874-75: 21.2F & 3.58"
1872-73: 20.5F & 3.25"

Cold/Wet Winters
2008-09: 22.4F & 10.32" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year
1984-85: 21.9F & 7.86" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year
1917-18: 21.0F & 7.81"
1886-87: 22.5F & 9.99"
1884-85: 22.2F & 9.40"
1882-83: 21.9F & 8.47"

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...