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2021-22 Winter Discussion


Hoosier
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5 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Unfortunately, it's a pattern of cold NW flow mostly moisture starved clippers, and the risk is when/if it flips (nothing locks all winter) we end up on the warm side of hard cutters. Tbd ofc, but this gradient is very much like Dec 2017 so far.

If I remember correctly, 2017 was the year that Detroit saw the Christmas snowstorm. 

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10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lol. It was a good winter outside of the late Feb torch. Deep snow in mid Feb. Perfect snowy christmas season. 

2017 Best Christmas to NY's since Idk, 2000?? Iirc, KFNT's new all-time snowiest winter at 85.3" beating out 74-75 and 13-14 for top spot. Even in Marshall I had 118% of avg. Yeah, horrible winter..

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9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Season total was 5.4" on January 10.  Ended up with 48.8", so it was a tremendous rally.

Obviously the odds of a top tier snow season in any given year are pretty low to begin with.  But if you're sitting at a couple inches in mid December or single digits well into January in Chicago... good luck ending up with 70 or 80 inches. 

Still early to be seriously discussing this stuff anyway.  I have hope that December won't be a total disaster.

Tru dat. Blame it on the NWS tho, it was their graphic I commented on. I hope December comes through for all of us. It'd be nice to continue the theme set by November.

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11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

To my earlier point, here's some data.  Obviously the definition/cutoff of an "elite" snowfall winter has some subjectivity, but taking a look at the top 10 snowiest for Chicago, 9 out of 10 had high single digit or double digit snowfall totals by December 15.  The one that didn't was 1966-67, which only had 3.0" by December 15, and it took the #1 snowstorm of all-time in January 1967 to be in the mix to make it a very snowy season.  Total snow in 1966-67 was 5th highest on record.

Wow, never knew that. Here in The Mitt, the jack-o-lanterns had just gone dim when that freakish storm dumped 8-12" Nov2-3 of '66. Went on to be a yuuge winter for SMI.

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12 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Wow, never knew that. Here in The Mitt, the jack-o-lanterns had just gone dim when that freakish storm dumped 8-12" Nov2-3 of '66. Went on to be a yuuge winter for SMI.

I'm old and I remember that storm! I was in the 10th grade and was on the school bus the day before and on the radio they forecast light rain, possibly ending as flurries! We got 8-12" down here near Cincy too!

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I've always thought that 1966 storm was underrated.  It was November but right after Halloween, so pretty early in the season for something like that.  Was a big Gulf low that took almost a due north track for a while.  It snowed into Alabama.

If sig snow that early is rare air up here, what is it in the deep South?? Are we talking 80F one day, and snow OTG the next?

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  • 1 month later...

Man this little storm moving through northern MI today really has the lake effect kicked into high gear, been a while since I remember seeing something like this. Some areas of the UP could be looking at 2 feet of new snow. Areas in the lower could get over a foot also. The cold air should start getting the ice on many inland lakes safe enough for fishing also by this weekend hopefully. Winter looks to finally be making a appearance in most of MI other then the extreme south east part.

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11 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

Since 2000, the past 22 years, Detroit has had 1 top 20 coldest December and 7 top 20 warmest Decembers, I’m no climatologist but I sense a pattern going on here. 

I'm guessing that 1 was Dec 2000 too lol. Only one that came close enough since was Dec 2017. 

Decembers are typically cold in Nina's too. 

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  • 1 month later...
On 9/14/2021 at 1:24 PM, Brian D said:

Looking ahead with my modelling method is very suggestive of more frequent arctic air intrusions throughout the winter than last year. I'm expecting a more normal type winter across the northern areas for sure.

Think I made a pretty good call a few months ago.

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 1/6/2022 at 1:49 PM, Up_north_MI said:

Since 2000, the past 22 years, Detroit has had 1 top 20 coldest December and 7 top 20 warmest Decembers, I’m no climatologist but I sense a pattern going on here. 

The latest 30-year averages nationwide, with the March/April averages being cooler and the September/October averages being warmer, definitely seem to suggest that we're seeing a gradual shift in when seasons start/end.

 

 

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One complete cycle for Earth takes about 26,000 years. By itself, the wobble of Earth's axis does not directly cause temperature changes like orbital shape and tilt. But it changes the portion of the orbit at which a given season occurs - that is, it changes when a particular season will occur.

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3 hours ago, Powerball said:

The latest 30-year averages nationwide, with the March/April averages being cooler and the September/October averages being warmer, definitely seem to suggest that we're seeing a gradual shift in when seasons start/end.

 

 

I've been reading a book called "memorials of a half century" written by Bella Hubbard in the 1880s. It's a fascinating and detailed look at our area from 1839 to that present day. Gives a ton of detail about the seasons and the weather, always changeable and shifting. That's why I always look at the big picture. So hard to tell the blurry lines sometimes between shifts, trends, and coincidences. Summer seems to be lingering later in September, but unusually early snow storms have been hitting as well. The frequency of mild Decembers in recent years is only matched by the 1930s & 1990's, and the frequency of anamolously snowy Februarys has never been matched since records have been kept.

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Assuming no additional significant snowfalls, I guess I'll give the winter a C.

There were some things to like and some things to hate.  As far as things to hate, it was yet another pathetic December in what has been a string of them.  The two storms in February top the highlights, with a near footer and a very enjoyable 6" storm.  If you look at a map of seasonal snowfall, I am actually in one of the better locations in the LOT cwa, so I'm fortunate in some ways.

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I give the Winter B-. 

 

As hoosier said, things to like and things to hate. Final numbers (pending April of course) would indicate that this Winter will finish right around average in terms of both total snowfall and days with snow on the ground. Of course it came in it's usual form of ups and downs. A snowy November, yet another fabulous February, but an anemic December and March. (In a very localized fashion, SE MI picked up avg snowfall in Dec 2020, but that aside, we are really in this weird trend of snowy November's & February's, and anemic decembers and marches.  Then ending the season with a bout of wintry weather in mid or even late April).

 

Two good size storms (9.0" & 6.8"). But what helped this Winter get a B- instead of a C/C+ was the consistent cold after Christmas. Some snow lovers could do without the cold but for me it's invigorating. So to have such persistence of cold weather, to see the thick ice on local lakes and ponds, was quite enjoyable. The dead of Winter in late January saw a few clippers and abnormal cold during what is the coldest time of year. 

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Heaviest snowfall event this season was 5.0" on Jan 1st.  Heaviest last season was 6.3" on Jan 25-26th 2021, and the heaviest the previous season was 4.8" on Jan 17-18th 2020.  The previous two seasons had seasonal totals of 37.5"/34.7" which is above average.

We are long overdue for a medium to big dog though, we've been skirted the past 3 winters now.  

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