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2021-22 Winter Discussion


Hoosier
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12 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Wow, never knew that. Here in The Mitt, the jack-o-lanterns had just gone dim when that freakish storm dumped 8-12" Nov2-3 of '66. Went on to be a yuuge winter for SMI.

I'm old and I remember that storm! I was in the 10th grade and was on the school bus the day before and on the radio they forecast light rain, possibly ending as flurries! We got 8-12" down here near Cincy too!

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I've always thought that 1966 storm was underrated.  It was November but right after Halloween, so pretty early in the season for something like that.  Was a big Gulf low that took almost a due north track for a while.  It snowed into Alabama.

If sig snow that early is rare air up here, what is it in the deep South?? Are we talking 80F one day, and snow OTG the next?

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  • 1 month later...

Man this little storm moving through northern MI today really has the lake effect kicked into high gear, been a while since I remember seeing something like this. Some areas of the UP could be looking at 2 feet of new snow. Areas in the lower could get over a foot also. The cold air should start getting the ice on many inland lakes safe enough for fishing also by this weekend hopefully. Winter looks to finally be making a appearance in most of MI other then the extreme south east part.

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11 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

Since 2000, the past 22 years, Detroit has had 1 top 20 coldest December and 7 top 20 warmest Decembers, I’m no climatologist but I sense a pattern going on here. 

I'm guessing that 1 was Dec 2000 too lol. Only one that came close enough since was Dec 2017. 

Decembers are typically cold in Nina's too. 

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  • 1 month later...
On 9/14/2021 at 1:24 PM, Brian D said:

Looking ahead with my modelling method is very suggestive of more frequent arctic air intrusions throughout the winter than last year. I'm expecting a more normal type winter across the northern areas for sure.

Think I made a pretty good call a few months ago.

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  • 4 weeks later...
12 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

After Tuesday's surprise snowfall, YYZ up to 63.1" of snowfall for the winter.  Anything 60+ here is elite.

2021-2022 will go down as YYZ's 13th snowiest winter on record. If we get another 2", it'll be 9th snowiest. 

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On 1/6/2022 at 1:49 PM, Up_north_MI said:

Since 2000, the past 22 years, Detroit has had 1 top 20 coldest December and 7 top 20 warmest Decembers, I’m no climatologist but I sense a pattern going on here. 

The latest 30-year averages nationwide, with the March/April averages being cooler and the September/October averages being warmer, definitely seem to suggest that we're seeing a gradual shift in when seasons start/end.

 

 

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One complete cycle for Earth takes about 26,000 years. By itself, the wobble of Earth's axis does not directly cause temperature changes like orbital shape and tilt. But it changes the portion of the orbit at which a given season occurs - that is, it changes when a particular season will occur.

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3 hours ago, Powerball said:

The latest 30-year averages nationwide, with the March/April averages being cooler and the September/October averages being warmer, definitely seem to suggest that we're seeing a gradual shift in when seasons start/end.

 

 

I've been reading a book called "memorials of a half century" written by Bella Hubbard in the 1880s. It's a fascinating and detailed look at our area from 1839 to that present day. Gives a ton of detail about the seasons and the weather, always changeable and shifting. That's why I always look at the big picture. So hard to tell the blurry lines sometimes between shifts, trends, and coincidences. Summer seems to be lingering later in September, but unusually early snow storms have been hitting as well. The frequency of mild Decembers in recent years is only matched by the 1930s & 1990's, and the frequency of anamolously snowy Februarys has never been matched since records have been kept.

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Assuming no additional significant snowfalls, I guess I'll give the winter a C.

There were some things to like and some things to hate.  As far as things to hate, it was yet another pathetic December in what has been a string of them.  The two storms in February top the highlights, with a near footer and a very enjoyable 6" storm.  If you look at a map of seasonal snowfall, I am actually in one of the better locations in the LOT cwa, so I'm fortunate in some ways.

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I give the Winter B-. 

 

As hoosier said, things to like and things to hate. Final numbers (pending April of course) would indicate that this Winter will finish right around average in terms of both total snowfall and days with snow on the ground. Of course it came in it's usual form of ups and downs. A snowy November, yet another fabulous February, but an anemic December and March. (In a very localized fashion, SE MI picked up avg snowfall in Dec 2020, but that aside, we are really in this weird trend of snowy November's & February's, and anemic decembers and marches.  Then ending the season with a bout of wintry weather in mid or even late April).

 

Two good size storms (9.0" & 6.8"). But what helped this Winter get a B- instead of a C/C+ was the consistent cold after Christmas. Some snow lovers could do without the cold but for me it's invigorating. So to have such persistence of cold weather, to see the thick ice on local lakes and ponds, was quite enjoyable. The dead of Winter in late January saw a few clippers and abnormal cold during what is the coldest time of year. 

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Heaviest snowfall event this season was 5.0" on Jan 1st.  Heaviest last season was 6.3" on Jan 25-26th 2021, and the heaviest the previous season was 4.8" on Jan 17-18th 2020.  The previous two seasons had seasonal totals of 37.5"/34.7" which is above average.

We are long overdue for a medium to big dog though, we've been skirted the past 3 winters now.  

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17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Heaviest snowfall event this season was 5.0" on Jan 1st.  Heaviest last season was 6.3" on Jan 25-26th 2021, and the heaviest the previous season was 4.8" on Jan 17-18th 2020.  The previous two seasons had seasonal totals of 37.5"/34.7" which is above average.

We are long overdue for a medium to big dog though, we've been skirted the past 3 winters now.  

You are around 17"? What is your average?

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I give this winter a solid D+. We have had all of 25.6" snow this winter at Madison. And most of that is from the three clippers in the end of january and from a couple weeks ago. We just now left the top 10 least snowiest winters list. We haven't even had a 6"+ snowfall this winter, barring anything weird happening in the next month. The only pluses about this winter were that what little snow we did have on the ground stayed around for quite a while with the cold January. And thanks to this winter's dryness we had an unusually sunny January, or at least it felt like that. And while yes 12/15 was an awesome storm that's going to be remembered for quite a while, it really sucked from a pure winter perspective. Overall just a cold, dry, incredibly boring winter. 

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18 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Assuming no additional significant snowfalls, I guess I'll give the winter a C.

There were some things to like and some things to hate.  As far as things to hate, it was yet another pathetic December in what has been a string of them.  The two storms in February top the highlights, with a near footer and a very enjoyable 6" storm.  If you look at a map of seasonal snowfall, I am actually in one of the better locations in the LOT cwa, so I'm fortunate in some ways.

NW of that C means a D for my area. Plenty of cold air in Jan and February but any systems consistently slid SE with limited phasing. 22" on the season which is quite a bit below average. Frustrating to see near normal snow avgs a 30-45 min drive just SE

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7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You are around 17"? What is your average?

We're at 18.8".  Around 35" is average for this area.

No warning criteria event, no-show December until near the end (again), an excruciatingly near miss with the event of the season followed by 12+ days of no weather to track, and seemingly every event taking a turn for the worse on the models in the last 12-36hrs before the event made this about as bad as winter as one can expect.  I guess if we got less than 18.8" it would have been worse, but since nearly 9" of that seasonal total happened within a weeks time (around New Years) the rest of the winter we received about 10".

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