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October/November 2021 Med/Long Range


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1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:


Imagine this setup in Jan if the high was better placed.


57 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Nice looking coastal

The GFS has also been toying with the idea of a possible coastal storm in the 21st-24th timeframe as well. It could potentially be a good sign as we head into winter. We'll see.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:


2nd .. the euro is lol

I will take early season snow rather than stress over whether peak climo will deliver mid January to mid February.

But I understand the point that historically if we get an early season snow it usually means the rest of the winter is a dud.

I can remember a foot of snow Veterans Day 1987 inside the Beltway.  I will never forget my early dismissal from UMCP.  My 20 minute drive took me over 4 hours and cars were abandoned all along my trip home.  Huge thump of snow with thunder in about 4 hours.  I don’t think we got much else that year.  That is when I officially start tracking because it can happen!!!




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11 hours ago, SoCoWx said:

Kinda surprised that looking forward, it looks like the southern mid-Atlantic might not see any frosts or freezes before, like, mid-November at the rate things seem to be going. Certainly not looking likely this month.

Probably completely anecdotal, but hopefully that’s not an omen/correlation for winter. 

The new normal.

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On 10/15/2021 at 8:10 AM, WinterWxLuvr said:


2nd .. the euro is lol

It’s such a small sample size it’s hard to draw strong conclusions wrt causation. Additionally, since our winters are skewed low wrt snowfall almost any variable will show some correlation to low snowfall. That’s because we are likely to get a crappy winter ANY year since like 65-70% are crap!  

That said early snowfall obviously is not an indication of a snowy winter either. And since we tend to get pattern cycles plus the effect of pattern drivers changes as the winter jet strengthens it also stands to reason getting a good pattern in October/November probably is a net negative for the odds of getting one in January. 

But…snow is so rare here I’m on the “take it when you can get it” train. Yea I’d rather a storm in January but I’m not kicking an October snow out of bed either. 

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3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

-NAO going to on to like 45 straight days. Unfortunately October NAO is like 60% correlated with Winter +NAO. 

Please start posting some sources when you throw these stats out. You've become so confusing with your cross posting in different threads. One minute you're giving the impression that we stand a chance for climo, the next it sounds like we're staring down a dumpster fire.

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We are also going to have the most -PNA on record for Sept-Oct since 1948, by a long shot. Next one is like 0.70/this. (I'm using 500mb). 

I am also going to bring this up... Deepening in the central Nina-subsurface, models will trend much more -PNA in the coming days. 

https://ibb.co/8gYRDsk. I expect us to be deep -PNA into Nov 5th. 

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  • nj2va changed the title to October/November 2021 Med/Long Range
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