Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range


nj2va
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

From what I can see, the GFS is all over the place. And, as is normal, temps are rarely as cold as modeled at range. People need to remember that come winter.

Absolutely! We know, especially in transition seasons, that the GFS and EURO tend to mild up as we approach the time they think it was going to be very cool! Some cooler temps support is showing up on the Euro.. not close to as cool as the GFS, but at least below normal a bit longer before some warmer temps again. I am thinking the Mountains finally pull off some good frost and maybe a bit of the piedmont if we get lucky! Then we may need to wait again for another shot, but we are way in speculation time period! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/17/2021 at 1:41 PM, WxUSAF said:

Airmass coming in for next weekend and early the following week looks like the first legit BN pattern in awhile. 50s for highs and frost/freeze potential for outer burbs.

Yeah, not so much anymore. Looks like the boundary will stay nearby and while it will be a pleasant fall weekend, doesn’t look much BN anymore. Going to be a Hail Mary to get a freeze at any of the airports in October.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, not so much anymore. Looks like the boundary will stay nearby and while it will be a pleasant fall weekend, doesn’t look much BN anymore. Going to be a Hail Mary to get a freeze at any of the airports in October.

I still haven't had a freeze in Deep Creek.  Lowest temp this fall has been 38 there.  

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Love to get our best winter pattern in mid November! 

Yeah, we had that in 2018. I wonder if it will get cold with all the -NAO potential this Winter. It's been popping with -PNA. I wonder what the next few Winter's will be like..If every -NAO/-PNA run together, eventually something has to happen or become more macro.. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now someone explain to me...how the "It's only October" response works when folks start writing off this winter...when the la nina statistics look like this: (this is from the last 10 la ninas)

Screenshot_20211021-202758_Gallery.thumb.jpg.0938f018f356a66b6ba87c5357eb2b20.jpg

I mean...isn't this like a slam dunk seasonal forecast given that only one aberration is 95/96?...I mean ya barely have to track because you know what it's gonna look like pretty much, lol Now the other ENSO states seem to be less predictable around here...

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • nj2va changed the title to Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range
  • H2O pinned this topic
  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...