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September 2021 General Discussion


madwx
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You can tell we’re in the doldrums here.  
 

Lake effect clouds were forming off Lake Mendota this morning.   Will grab a satellite pic in a bit 

 

Big fan of the cooler and less humid air sticking around 

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I have worked up the rankings for June and July. August I'll post in a few days to let data submissions make it into the system. There are a few stations out there that still submit monthly reports instead of daily internet reports.

The dense ranking method (data comes from MRCC cli-mate tool) ranks by each unique temp as the place holder, and the years associated with them. For June and July, the average number of monthly temps is around 80 for max, and 70 for high min (more ties). So you can, by the aforementioned numbers, see how far from average each station was during the month. For those lower ranked stations, I noted if they were top 20 on the cool side to highlight their significance.

June was definitely a warm one.

NC US June max avg mthly ranking.png

NC US June high min avg mthly ranking.png

NC US July max avg mthly ranking.png

NC US July high min avg mthly ranking.png

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10 minutes ago, Spartman said:

image.png.58d231a3aa992db26406175cf7e15bb1.png

Spartman Special in Dayton this summer. Tied 2007 for 10th warmest August, plus 10 90+ days during the month. 14th warmest summer on record and, more importantly, the warmest since 1995 and third warmest on record at the airport (surpassed only by 1995 and 1988). Most of those early years should be tossed from the downtown rooftop station.

August

image.png.ec09c12e1fba25601fdd6fa8dd8f3e35.png

Summer

image.png.db39516385ee95b57e25e3418671d247.png

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34 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Spartman Special in Dayton this summer. Tied 2007 for 10th warmest August, plus 10 90+ days during the month. 14th warmest summer on record and, more importantly, the warmest since 1995 and third warmest on record at the airport (surpassed only by 1995 and 1988). Most of those early years should be tossed from the downtown rooftop station.

August

image.png.ec09c12e1fba25601fdd6fa8dd8f3e35.png

Summer

image.png.db39516385ee95b57e25e3418671d247.png

Under dense ranking, August will be tied 6th, and summer 11th. Dense ranking weights with the temps. Unlike standard method that weights between temps and years. Temps are more important to me, so dense ranking is my preferred system. I think MRCC cli-mate tool offers that option because others see its value, too. But, to each his own. :) 

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Today's system has been a big overachiever here in east-central Iowa.  The first band of rain moved in early this morning and it did not stop until 2pm.  My rain total is 1.57".  Up to 2" has fallen just north of me.  For days most models were spitting out a couple tenths, or maybe up to a half inch for a few lucky spots.  I love days like this (cloudy/rain/60s) after a few months of heat and humidity.  It is very refreshing.

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From northern Indiana 

"We then turn our attention to a deepening low moving through the
upper Great Lakes. A warm front may lift in  Tuesday morning,
followed by a cold front in the evening. At this distance,
conditions seem favorable for severe thunderstorms: bulk wind shear
of 40-50 knots, low-level lapse rates near 9C/km and plenty of CAPE.
Upper-level support locally appears favorable as well with the right
entrance region of the 500-mb jet nearby. Check back for updates in
the coming days."
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From KIND

A closed upper
low and associated surface low are progged to track through the
northern Great Lakes Region on Tuesday.  This will be a quick moving
system though with any shower/thunderstorm chances out of the area
by Tuesday night. However, thunderstorms will be a threat on Tuesday
afternoon/evening as the environment destabilizes in the warm sector
of the surface low.  Southwest surface flow will push daytime highs
back into the mid to upper 80s for a day with dew points in the 60s.
 With the moderate instability and forcing, would not rule out
isolated strong thunderstorms at times.
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KIWX

An upper level trof will amplify over the eastern CONUS downstream
of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the North American Rocky
Mountains. Temperatures will become briefly warmer Tuesday ahead of
an approaching cold front associated with the amplifying trof.
GFS has been consistent the past 4 (6hr) runs with mass fields
and general timing of the front. The 00Z GFS still favors a cold
front passage from late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday night
providing a diurnally favorable time for convection. Low level
theta E will surge northeast in a narrow band during the day
Tuesday. In addition to the advection of a modified elevated mix
layer (EML), mid levels winds from 50 to 75 knots and thermal
profiles of CAPE values reaching 1500 to 2000 J/Kg indicate
favorable chances for damaging thunderstorm winds. The CIPS
analogs continues to support chances for severe weather as very
strong mid level winds develop. Have been keeping a watch on an
analog from 9/10/1992 which matches mass fields quite well and
portends in a severe direction
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