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September 2021


wdrag
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5 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like the front continues to slow down on the 12Z GFS for mid/late week. We could pick up some decent rainfall (1-3") along with some thunderstorms. Does anyone have the Euro?

 

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is 2-4” for the areas that get the best training along the stalled front. So the mesos will probably be heavier once we get within their best range. May be another set up where the HREF shows somebody going 5”+ around the region.

F952F811-B597-4DBF-B5B3-EB59D2E0373A.gif.9faf6021ad1b2c2b395546e49c7fb7bc.gif

 

4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Also looks to me like this is more of a Thursday into Friday event now.

I think @wdrag may have to start a storm specific thread in the next day or two for the late week event. 

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Tomorrow will be another partly to mostly sunny day. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s across the region.

The potential exists for a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall during the middle or latter part of the week. A widespread 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible. The timing remains somewhat uncertain.

Despite the guidance of a few days ago, 2021 is still on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +12.42 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.354 today.

On September 17 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.737 (RMM). The September 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.825 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and pleasant. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 79°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 74.7°; 15-Year: 75.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 76.3°; 15-Year: 77.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.5°; 15-Year: 78.4°

A moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible during the middle or latter part of the week. A general 0.50”-1.50” rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely.

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The next 8 days are averaging 68degs.(62/75), or +1.

Month to date is  72.1[+0.9].        Should be  70.8[+0.9] by the 28th.

Reached 79* here yesterday.

Today: 72-76, s.e. wind, p. sunny.

Rain late Wed to early Sat.?

66*(76%RH) here at 6am.         69* at 9am.       71* at 10am.         72* at Noon.        74* at 3pm.      75* at 4pm.       Reached 77* briefly at 5:30pm.

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5 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The GFS is back showing a more progressive solution the last couple of runs for the mid/late week event, not buying that at all.

Why’s that? Selfishly, I’m praying for the GFS to be right, or at least a outcome that is more progressive than what the Canadian/Euro show. I’ll take middle of the road :)

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On 9/18/2021 at 4:07 AM, Will - Rutgers said:

did anyone else notice that the fireflies quit early this year?

i seem to remember a few years back they were swarming well into October due to warm moist weather.  i might've thought they'd do the same this year if you told me the weather ahead of time, but i haven't seen them in several weeks, well back into mid-August.

 

I was thinking about this old thread the other day too. I have noticed much less of a lightning bug season this year around here as well. I wonder if it is just more a natural ebb and flow in the population and less about the weather. 

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Tomorrow will be another partly sunny and pleasant day. Temperatures will again rise well into the 70s in much of the region.

The potential exists for a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall during the middle or latter part of the week. A widespread 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible. The timing still remains somewhat uncertain.

The MJO has recently been locked in Phase 3 at a high amplitude, frequently in excess of 1.500. Only 2006 and 2009 saw the MJO in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 2 or more days during September 10-20. Both years saw September end with a cold shot that continued into the first days of October. Both days saw Central Park's temperature fall to 49° on September 30. October wound up wetter than normal with 7.07" rainfall in 2006 and 5.58" of rainfall in 2009. Normal rainfall (1991-2020) is 4.38".

Despite the guidance of a few days ago and a likely cold shot to end the month, 2021 is still on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +8.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.118 today.

On September 18 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.466 (RMM). The September 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.735 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

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33 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

The 00Z GFS still seems to be an outlier with the timing of the rainfall event.  Going for a Thursday event while other models have pushed it back to overnight into Friday.

The GFS is still a bit to progressive IMO although it has slowed from earlier runs. I also expect the models to come in a bit wetter as we get closer.

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