September 2021

[psv88]

24 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

“However, for a record 2nd consecutive day, the temperature at New York City's Central Park failed to reach 80° when all of the following cities reached 80° or above: Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City-JFK, and New YorkCity-LGA.”

 

All those stations are east. Hearing reports of sun to the east.

I live along the Hudson in line with CPK and we didnt have a drop of sun all day.

Also never hit 80

 

Newark hit 82, Teterboro hit 86, Somerville 81...

[donsutherland1]

26 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

“However, for a record 2nd consecutive day, the temperature at New York City's Central Park failed to reach 80° when all of the following cities reached 80° or above: Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City-JFK, and New YorkCity-LGA.”

 

All those stations are east. Hearing reports of sun to the east.

I live along the Hudson in line with CPK and we didnt have a drop of sun all day.

Also never hit 80

 

Newark also hit 80 both days.

[Stormlover74]

65 now...is this fall?

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I meant 55 in December and muggy like he was talking about that one Christmas. It was gross. 

I woke up in the middle of the night and it felt like a sauna.....

and this was in the Poconos!  We had severe storms overnight with temps near 70 during the day and those storms at night.  Actually it was still in the upper 60s at night when those storms came through

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Newark also hit 80 both days.

I guess JFK is a city now lol

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Newark hit 82, Teterboro hit 86, Somerville 81...

wow Teterboro was 4 degrees warmer than Newark? Thats new

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow Teterboro was 4 degrees warmer than Newark? Thats new

I dont think thats correct 

[eduggs]

16 hours ago, Jeff Grann said:

I lived on Sanibel for 3 years. Worked with boat captains and Meteorologists. Being from NY I was fascinated by the different weather down there. It was made clear to me that Florida had a Subtropical climate from just below the Tampa Bay area . North of there was not due to the  continental influence on the weather. I saw the difference especially in overnight lows . As far as the 70's, I still have the Time Magazine that was devoted to ”The next ice age cometh"?. It was very clear how NOAA and the scientific community we're leaning back then.

Interesting that you think your personal anecdotes can substitute for facts. There exists a ton of information on both subjects if you care to educate yourself. Or alternatively, and more likely, you're a republican. Unfortunate. 

[eduggs]

15 hours ago, Jeff Grann said:

Pure tropical climates are those in the Caribbean where temps are stable all year round 80- 90 by day/ 70-80 at night. So basically people here are broad brushing subtropical to the point that you are equating our yearly climate to South Florida which is absurd. You want to say we are experiencing stretches of S FL humidity...Have at it. But they don't get a cold frontal passage from mid June till October. Not 1 cool, dry day the entire Summer

Tropical ≠ Subtropical 

[SACRUS]

9/23

TEB: 86
LGA: 83
EWR: 82
New Brnswck: 81
JFK: 81
ISP: 81
ACY: 81
TTN: 81
PHL: 81
BLM: 80
NYC: 79

[SACRUS]

HPN: 78
SWF: 79

[wdrag]

A sharp negative tilt trough out of the Great Lakes this Saturday the 24th, may place NYC on the western fringe of what could be a sizable rainfall for eastern LI, especially Montauk???

Thereafter, there are possibilities NYC will be on the northern or northwest fringe of a complex mid Atlantic coast-western Atlantic low pressure system that may yet ingest a bit of SAM RH, or at the least have it's overall Western Atlantic flow altered in such a way that LI-NYC is in the mid level deformation zone yielding qpf here of .05 to .75" next Wednesday-the 29th through Saturday October 2. Timing and northwest extent of the showery rains all uncertain but not a zero chance.  Modeling of this is going may be very sensitive to overall western Atlantic response to SAM.  I just don't know but worthy of monitoring. 

AND, as a final observation of modeling: 00z/24 guidance has virtually all members showing SAM not posing a direct threat to the northeast USA, except for 2 tor 3 members.  Will monitor future modeling trends. 

[wdrag]

Unsure about EWR Sept record.  Not starting SAM related thread, as yet...  wait a couple of days to see if indeed there is a more direct interaction with the mid-Atlantic coast low pressure system. What I see on some 6AM weathercasts are tooo optimistically dry forecasts tomorrow and middle-end of next week for NYC-LI-NJ. 

I hope Bluewave and Don have some stats to share on Sept and will recheck late today. 

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of September are averaging 68degs.(60/77) or +3

Month to date is  72.0[+1.5].      September should end at  71.1[+1.9]

59*(88%RH) here at 6am, cloudy, drizzle.      60* at 7am with clearing skies.        67* at Noon.         71* at 3pm        73* at 4pm.      74* at 4:30pm.

Latest GFS has no more rain this month---previous run had 0.3".

SAM, around Oct. 03, seems most trapped on the GFS, but it still escapes.      The CMC blocks it--- but it goes into the SE US.

Today. 68-73, w. wind., some sun by the PM,

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.22" of rain for the day yesterday.

0.40" of rain so far today.

Storm total 1.62"

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

At 7:10 am, the front responsible for the heavy rainfall that commenced yesterday continued to move slowly eastward. Central Park picked up 2.03” of rain bringing its monthly total to 9.76”. 2021 is the first year on record with 3 consecutive months of 9.50” or more rainfall. Annual rainfall in New York City has reached 51.69”. That surpassed the 51.38” that fell in 1871 to make 2021 New York City’s 34th wettest year on record.

Today will see rainfall shift slowly eastward on Long Island. Clouds will break, especially west of Suffolk County allowing for some sunshine. Areas to the south and west of Newark could see a lot of sunshine. It will be cool for the season. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region.  Where clouds linger longest, temperatures will hold in the 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 71°

Newark: 76°

Philadelphia: 74°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.1°; 15-Year: 74.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 74.7°; 15-Year: 76.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.9°; 15-Year: 77.0°

A sun-filled weekend lies ahead.

[ForestHillWx]

53 currently. Well over 1.5” yesterday. Not a cloud in the sky at the moment. 

[lee59]

1.95 inches of rain here today, combined with yesterdays .64 gives me 2.59 so far from this event.

[lee59]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see how close NYC can come to the warmest September minimum of 57°. All our other local stations are near the warmest levels also. The NBM blend gets NYC down to 57° on the last day of September. 
 

https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_text

NBE TEXT BULLETIN - STATION KNYC 

# 

 KNYC    NBM V4.0 NBE GUIDANCE    9/24/2021  0700 UTC                    
        SAT 25| SUN 26| MON 27| TUE 28| WED 29| THU 30| FRI 01|SAT CLIMO 
 UTC    00  12| 00  12| 00  12| 00  12| 00  12| 00  12| 00  12| 00       
 FHR    17  29| 41  53| 65  77| 89 101|113 125|137 149|161 173|185       
 TXN    71  59| 75  61| 73  59| 73  62| 74  59| 70  57| 69  58| 69  56 71

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
	2021	59	7
	1910	57	0
	2015	56	0
-	1921	56	0
	2018	54	0
-	2017	54	0
-	2016	54	0
-	2010	54	0
-	2002	54	0
-	1982	54	0
-	1960	54	0
-	1891	54	0

 

Central Park was 57 degrees this morning.

[qg_omega]

What a weekend incoming

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Unsure about EWR Sept record.  Not starting SAM related thread, as yet...  wait a couple of days to see if indeed there is a more direct interaction with the mid-Atlantic coast low pressure system. What I see on some 6AM weathercasts are tooo optimistically dry forecasts tomorrow and middle-end of next week for NYC-LI-NJ. 

I hope Bluewave and Don have some stats to share on Sept and will recheck late today. 

Newark is currently in 2nd place for wettest September at 10.08”.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1944	10.28	0
2	2021	10.08	7
3	1999	9.38	0
4	1975	9.00	0
5	1933	8.33	0
6	1934	8.15	0
7	2011	8.13	0
8	2004	8.01	0
9	1971	7.88	0
10	1966	7.86	0

[uncle W]

NYC has 33.78" so far since June 1st...2011 had 34.62"...1975 had 31.72"...

[bluewave]

Front slowing down over eastern sections as the ridge east of New England is still very strong.

 

[tek1972]

Front slowing down over eastern sections as the ridge east of New England is still very strong.


 

Yep. Still raining here in central Suffolk.

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

[MJO812]

The position of the ULL is going to be key to see where Sam tracks.

[CIK62]

SAM update:       

The CMC comes closest to us as it hits in Maine.     EURO is similar till very end of its run and only scrapes Maine.         GFS  is way out to sea at Maine's latitude.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, tek1972 said:

Yep. Still raining here in central Suffolk.

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
 

Even South Florida is getting a break from the high dew points behind this front.

 

[wdrag]

Impressions on SAM RH contributions to a substantial rainfall somewhere VA to MA Sept 30-Oct 4, offered on Saturday.  Right now, it's possible but unlikely.  What I do think is that this has to be monitored for a while til we're all sure it won't happen. 

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of the frontal passage that brought a widespread 1"-2" rainfall into today, clouds and rain shifted eastward and the sun returned. Abundant sunshine occurred near New York City and westward. There, readings soared into the 70s.

Tomorrow, the entire region will benefit from abundant sunshine. It will be a warm day with temperatures rising into the middle and upper 70s. A few locations could reach or exceed 80°. Sunday will be a similar but perhaps slightly cooler day.

The MJO had recently been locked in Phase 3 at a high amplitude, frequently in excess of 1.500. Only 2006 and 2009 saw the MJO in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 2 or more days during September 10-20. Both years saw September end with a cold shot that continued into the first days of October. Both days saw Central Park's temperature fall to 49° on September 30. A fairly sharp rebound in temperatures followed. October wound up wetter than normal with 7.07" rainfall in 2006 and 5.58" of rainfall in 2009. Normal rainfall (1991-2020) is 4.38".

Despite the guidance of a few days ago and a likely cold shot to end the month, 2021 is still on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

There is increasing consensus on the long-range guidance that October will be an unseasonably warm month. The first half could feature much above normal readings in the Northern Plains into Central Canada.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was -18.18 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.787 today.

On September 22 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.305 (RMM). The September 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.553 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.5° (1.3° above normal).

 

[lee59]

How is this for a hurricane season. 1954, Carol at the end of August caused widespread damage across our area and New England. A few weeks later Edna crossed Cape Cod causing widespread damage and very heavy rains and strong winds across our area. Over 9 inches at Brookhaven Labs on Long Island. Then about 3 weeks later in the beginning of October, Hazel well to our west gave some of the highest wind gusts in our area, ever recorded. The next season in August Connie and Dianne gave some of the worst flooding our area has ever seen, especially in Connecticut. All this in one years time.