Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[Rtd208]

Impressive. 

 

[tdp146]

swell already building on the south shore 

[Rtd208]

 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

EPS is way west

[Stormlover74]

Nam further east

 

[Nibor]

NAM 991 landfalls over Block Island

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

EPS is way west

Yeah, many members as far west as the CMC and UKMET.

 

[Snowlover11]

lol here we go, hurricane models west, NAM goes east.  

[wdrag]

HRRR is my baseline for 12z Sunday... we'll seeif it ends up much further east over BID?, or somewhere between.

These are the 48 hr gusts of the 12z op HRRR for 12z Sunday.

 

LOTS of room for error. Follow NHC-NWS.

 

[jdj5211]

One important thing to point out is that this storm has consistently been on the southwest side of pretty much all guidance.  It's one thing to follow model trends but actual observations are just as, if not more important!  I don't think NYC/NJ is out of the woods yet by any means.  Keep an eye on the movement of Henri over the next 12-24 hours....

[wdrag]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

HRRR is my baseline for 12z Sunday... we'll seeif it ends up much further east over BID?, or somewhere between.

These are the 48 hr gusts of the 12z op HRRR for 12z Sunday.

 

LOTS of room for error. Follow NHC-NWS.

 

Added the 18z/20 HRRR wind gusts for 10A Sunday and also the total QPF.  HRRR, EC and GGEM will need to trend east to avoid 'pockets' of damaging wind and serious flooding. 

[Stormlover74]

[Nibor]

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Send Jim Cantore to islip.

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

lol here we go, hurricane models west, NAM goes east.  

Nam is not a model got a hurricane 

[MJO812]

TS watch for NYC

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Send Jim Cantore to islip.

Is he still a jinx or is that no longer the case?

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Is he still a jinx or is that no longer the case?

Will have to refer to Louisianans for that answer.

[Cfa]

Got an alert for the Storm Surge Warning but not the Hurricane Warning, I’m about as inland as can be for LI.

[tdp146]

Sitting on the beach in Suffolk and everyone’s phones just blasted with the hurricane warning. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Got an alert for the Storm Surge Warning but not the Hurricane Warning.

My phone went nuts.  I got both.

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

HPN just upgraded to Tropical Storm warning as per NWS.

[justinj]

Got storm surge warning and hurricane warning on iPhone 

[Nibor]

Just now, tdp146 said:

Sitting on the beach in Suffolk and everyone’s phones just blasted with the hurricane warning. 

Heh, eerie.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I was in the Navy and didn't even know Gloria happened until later, but I was in Nassau Shores, Massapequa for 1976 75 mph Hurricane Belle, and that killed electricity for 2 days and ruined the food in the fridge, and uprooted trees.  Weeping willows especially.  If not cut up, they lived on their sides.  We evacuated to North Massapequa, friends from my Dad's job, the Harkins.  They had cable, was about to see an R rated movie on HBO when the power went out.  First time I'd ever seen cable.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

7 minutes ago, justinj said:

Got storm surge warning and hurricane warning on iPhone 

Where in NJ are you?

[Stormy46237]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

TS watch for NYC

My daughter just moved to Brooklyn.  She's used to tornadoes here at home and she's basically laughing at me about the TS watch. *sigh*

 

[crossbowftw3]

Would wonder if us inland folks N/W of the city proper could see another rare summertime wind advisory like we did with Isaias.

[dmillz25]

Just now, Stormy46237 said:

My daughter just moved to Brooklyn.  She's used to tornadoes here at home and she's basically laughing at me about the TS watch. *sigh*

 

She will learn

[MJO812]