Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[LoboLeader1]

 

[Sn0waddict]

[David-LI]

I just know that only a few hours of decent sustained winds and chances are high that power goes out in my area. It always does with windy storms let alone a Cat 1 or TS.

[forkyfork]

our 5th TC impact in two years

[justinj]

What’s the wind looking like for central LI?

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, justinj said:

What’s the wind looking like for central LI?

TS force easily 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, justinj said:

What’s the wind looking like for central LI?

Depends where it makes landfall. 

[Derecho!]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z NAM has hurricane gusts over Eastern Long Island. Very tight core so strongest winds don’t  get far from center. This is one of the more compact systems to affect  our area. So the exact track is very important. 


 

 

For the love of God, the NAM shouldn't even be mentioned, much less have maps posted. 

 

You know less about a tropical system forecast after looking at the NAM than you did before.  It's literally negative (value) information. 
 

[David-LI]

It appears the GFS at hr 48 is a few miles west and a few mb stronger compared to 06z. Looks like a Twin Forks landfall.

[Nibor]

12z GFS landfalls Montauk

[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

12z GFS landfalls Montauk

I wonder if it can make a double landfall as Cat 1, First Montauk then CT

[crossbowftw3]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

12z GFS landfalls Montauk

Still think somewhere in the vicinity of Montauk is likeliest, I love the move NHC made this morning to have a blanket hurricane watch from LI to the Cape.

[sferic]

5 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Still think somewhere in the vicinity of Montauk is likeliest, I love the move NHC made this morning to have a blanket hurricane watch from LI to the Cape.

Only Suffolk County on LI, I'd bet if track nudges further west, Nass cnty will be under a Hurricane watch too

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Oh I understand but you saying that gives some pause and something to keep an eye on

new cone has moved west now shows long island landfall most likely option

 

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z NAM has hurricane gusts over Eastern Long Island. Very tight core so strongest winds don’t  get far from center. This is one of the more compact systems to affect  our area. So the exact track is very important. 

what about direction after landfall, what if it keeps going NNW or NW'

[jm1220]

Just now, bluewave said:

12z GFS is similar some of the other guidance indicating a potential   Eastern Long Island landfall.

That’s a shift west. It’s been tracking it around Block Island or east before. I doubt the NJ landfalls we’re seeing on some models but an eastern Suffolk landfall looking more likely on Sun AM. At Jones Beach the high tide’s at 9:30AM Sun. Hopefully the speed can slow down so it comes in at low tide in the afternoon. HMON has been pretty consistent the last 2 runs in tracking it about over my head and HWRF takes it about over Shinnecock Canal. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

12z GFS is similar some of the other guidance indicating a potential   Eastern Long Island landfall.

15z would be really bad timing with the high tide. Hopefully that can slow down to more like 18-21z. 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Still think somewhere in the vicinity of Montauk is likeliest, I love the move NHC made this morning to have a blanket hurricane watch from LI to the Cape.

lets get a betting thread going lol.  I pick Babylon in Suffolk County

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That’s a shift west. It’s been tracking it around Block Island or east before. I doubt the NJ landfalls we’re seeing on some models but an eastern Suffolk landfall looking more likely on Sun AM. At Jones Beach the high tide’s at 9:30AM Sun. Hopefully the speed can slow down so it comes in at low tide in the afternoon. HMON has been pretty consistent the last 2 runs in tracking it about over my head and HWRF takes it about over Shinnecock Canal. 

what do you think of an in between landfall, from about Jones Beach to Babylon?

 

[MJO812]

Heard the Ukie is into NYC. Anyone have maps  ?

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Heard the Ukie is into NYC. Anyone have maps  ?

Nothing on Pivotal Weather yet.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Heard the Ukie is into NYC. Anyone have maps  ?

22 minutes.  French site has it but I hate that site lol. 

[Juliancolton]

Just now, Rjay said:

22 minutes.  French site has it but I hate that site lol. 

Sacre bleu!

[forkyfork]

posts like that without pictures are useless to me

[dWave]

Storm surge watch extend from LI and Southern Westchester into Bronx and Queens.

Odds 5 boro bike tour gets canceled...

They never do for rain even torrential but never had to deal with tropical systems since its usually in May.

[SI Mailman]

Just now, dWave said:

Storm surge watch extend from LI and Southern Westchester into Bronx and Queens.

Odds 5 boro bike tour gets canceled...

They never do for rain even torrential but never had to deal with tropical systems since its usually in May.

I did the tour in '09 during a nasty coastal storm.  It wasn't fun.  I vowed to never do it again in the rain after that.  

[Rjay]

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

22 minutes.  French site has it but I hate that site lol. 

at least that isn't the one that has the world upside down

 

[David-LI]

Canadian with a landfall in Central Long Island. Noting that it started fairly weak.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Rjay said:

wow UK has held firm for awhile now