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Tropical Storm Henri


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46 minutes ago, Warwick WX said:

As a civil/site designer we generally propose all new subdivisions with underground power/no poles.  But it doesn't help when the power connecting to the substation for the development is conveyed by poles 2' away from overhanging trees.  Until somehow all the money needed is spent to convert existing overhead lines to underground, this will be a perpetual problem.

Underground is 10 times more expensive,at least for transmission. Unless you want dramatically more expensive power, it's not happening. 

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Just now, NeonPeon said:

I didn't go down Bellevue, but that area, with large, dumb lawns, leading up a slight hill from the coast, to lone trees, is a recipe for this.

I didn't see much like that video. But I don't have any friends on Bellevue!

It's funny because I've been to newport twice in the past month and I understand all the references. Over a month ago I'd be clueless.

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Just now, Kristospherein said:

Underground is 10 times more expensive,at least for transmission. Unless you want dramatically more expensive power, it's not happening. 

I think the richest country on earth can pay to have itself not look like it just wired itself up over the weekend while drunk. An unreal amount of money needs to go into the usa's energy infrastructure. Doing it properly and beautifying the entire country should be possible, if it's possible virtually everywhere else in the developed world.

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35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting...

so they must of just had doubts about a "storm" at all then.   Like, they couldn't get that previous one right so the big dawg'll miss - ha. 

but that's weird psychology when you think about it.. .because not getting rain right in lieu of snow, wouldn't lend one to think that when they predict snow ..it should necessarily be rain - unless they thought the storm would miss altogether.

wow...what a delicious morass of distrust -

I don't recall the January snowstorm as a bust. There were the usual rain/snowline questions, but the Bob Copelands/Harvey Leonards were on it. Days later, the Cleveland bomb manifested here as a very windy rainy southeaster that melted much of the accumulated snow.. (And as a side cap, my good friend, Walt Drag, was all over the Feb 6 blizzard warning me days in advance of something big, and extolling the accuracy of the then rather new and advanced LFM model.)

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4 minutes ago, Kristospherein said:

Underground is 10 times more expensive,at least for transmission. Unless you want dramatically more expensive power, it's not happening. 

Agreed, I'm just curious how much it costs over say a 20 to 25-year period for disaster repairs and how much of the overall utility cost pie that takes up.  Like is there even a worthwhile offset in cost by eliminating these events.  Google did not help me out with a bottom-line estimate of disaster costs just related to electric.

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54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting...

so they must of just had doubts about a "storm" at all then.   Like, they couldn't get that previous one right so the big dawg'll miss - ha. 

but that's weird psychology when you think about it.. .because not getting rain right in lieu of snow, wouldn't lend one to think that when they predict snow ..it should necessarily be rain - unless they thought the storm would miss altogether.

wow...what a delicious morass of distrust -

Well in fairness to the public psyche onset was delayed by hours so people started sniffing a bust.  It came on as a wall of snow and didn’t let up before 20-30 was down, 30-40 in some spots.  We all have disappointments in life and I will go to my grave having moved to LA the previous winter and missing the signature Boston blizzard of the 20th century..

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8 minutes ago, Warwick WX said:

Agreed, I'm just curious how much it costs over say a 20 to 25-year period for disaster repairs and how much of the overall utility cost pie that takes up.  Like is there even a worthwhile offset in cost by eliminating these events.  Google did not help me out with a bottom-line estimate of disaster costs just related to electric.

That is a great question, especially considering climate change and potentially increased disaster chances. I've worked for utilities for the past 10 years or so and know they track risks. Utility policy, especially in the Northeast, is extremely complicated so not sure it would be simple to isolate. 

I lived in Providence for five years and all I remember is how often the power would go out compared to here in Charlotte...though my neighborhoods power lines are underground.

To get back on topic, I sure hope this storm doesn't knock out power for a few weeks in any cities. Quite a few folks in rural areas have generators but not so certain in the cities. 

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2 minutes ago, Kristospherein said:

To get back on topic, I sure hope this storm doesn't knock out power for a few weeks in any cities. Quite a few folks in rural areas have generators but not so certain in the cities. 

I think there is zero chance of that?

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4 hours ago, JC-CT said:

Uh, left

The dry zone just arrived here. I wonder however; looking at the radar if it could potentially fill in, and I mean fill in long before the expected re-run of rain tomorrow.

it has that counterclockwise appearance, I know that the notion of filling in could just be the wish-derived trick on my eyes 

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1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

The dry zone just arrived here. I wonder however; looking at the radar if it could potentially fill in, and I mean fill in long before the expected re-run of rain tomorrow.

it has that counterclockwise appearance, I know that the notion of filling in could just be the wish-derived trick on my eyes 

Maybe some light showers could? NAM shows that. But nothing meaningful.

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I didn't go down Bellevue, but that area, with large, dumb lawns, leading up a slight hill from the coast, to lone trees, is a recipe for this.
I didn't see much like that video. But I don't have any friends on Bellevue!
Yeah set up for pockets of maximum damage. Additionally no one videos the areas which don't have damage, which slant sticks the perception some. default_wink.png

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk


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Busted on my personal forecast I had, however for those without power/getting flooding rains/having tree downs, I hope the best with a speedy recovery.

I'd like to see what effects the diminishing overnight, swing to the east will do in Eastern MA, on the back side of the storm, although cleanup should be very manageable. I would imagine most of the damage (at least the major damage) is cleaned up by Tuesday afternoon for the most part.

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IIRC the CAR office had the Cleveland monster as a mix and mess, which is exactly what we had in Fort Kent.  Jan 20-Feb 7 featured 3 huge NE storms and my snow stake had 1" less on 2/7 than on 1/20.  (And unlike 4/82, the decrease wasn't due to blizzard winds.  We got fringed twice with the mess in the middle.)

Today's rn 0.00". What a bust. Not that we were supposed to get more than 0.5", but low clouds and off and on mist was annoying

Much better up here.  We scored 0.01" in morning dz.

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7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think he's right-CT has historically done poorly with storms/power outages partly due to the forest nature of the state in generally and partly due to incompentency of the utilities

No doubt a further west landfall would have been more outages. But isaias is a pretty high bar.

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2 minutes ago, Quincy said:

How can I better help explain it, Kev?

No worries 

*** Possible renewed Flash Flooding & a few severe storms with
 an isolated tornado possible ***

Remnants of Henri begin to advect eastward back across southern
New England. Modest synoptic scale lift with good cyclonic
curvature to the mid level flow, along with some enhancement via LFQ
of upper level jet streak. This combined with PWATs increasing
back to 2+ inches, scattered showers and storms will be capable
of producing tropical downpours. This combined with today`s
heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding, increasing the risk
for renewed flooding tomorrow across CT, western- central MA
possible into RI.

Then farther east into eastern MA, breaks of sunshine should
promote highs of 80-85 degs along with dew pts 70-75. This will
yield MLCAPES up to 1000 j/kg or so. Thus, modest instability
(long skinny CAPE) along with low LCLs. Modest low level shear
as well, with 0-1 km vector offering up to 30 kt of shear. This
shear and instability profile combined with remnants of Henri,
high dew pts/low LCLs may be sufficient for a few rotating
updrafts, with risk focused across eastern MA including the
Merrimack River Valley. For now, including gusty winds and heavy
rain into the forecast. Later shifts, if confidence increases
may want to insert stronger wording.
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1 hour ago, Quincy said:

Tornado threat is pretty cooked. Virtually no instability and substantial convective inhibition, both analyzed and forecast. Favorable low level shear is also becoming increasingly displaced to the north.

I was actually almost stunned that there was no tor watch preemptively set up this morning until I started analyzing things.

I mentioned this earlier ...  It's pretty clear that a BD air mass got involved into this.  We had two consecutive days of 73 to 77 DPs here, then this morning it was 68/66 with mist and slat, leaves wobbling from the N... 

uh, scratching head -

There's a reason why WPC analyzed Henri with warm front sticking out of it toward the east a couple hours ago :arrowhead:

This thing was like creating lies as it went - ha!   Anyway, there was no way this thing was doing anything under 2000' up along Rt 2

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