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August 9-12, 2021 Severe Threats


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I suggest a separate thread for today's action and tommorrow's ENH/hatched wind right on the 1-year anniversary of 8/10/20.

Tornado with "definite rotation" confirmed near Ohio, IL (north of Princeton):

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 E OHIO                41.56N 89.42W
08/09/2021                   BUREAU             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DEFINITE ROTATION.
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New confirmed tornado in IL.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
730 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

The National Weather Service in the Quad Cities has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Bureau County in north central Illinois...

* Until 815 PM CDT.

* At 730 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Wyanet, or near
  Princeton, moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* The tornado will be near...
  Princeton and Tiskilwa around 740 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
DePue and Bureau Junction.

 

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As an aside, I passed through Fairdale three times today going after the various cells and then doubling back for more. There are still shredded-looking trees and a boarded-up, battered (half the siding gone and several windows blown out) building on Main Street that looks like it was abandoned after 4/9/15.

Although today WAS my most successful chase to date, my first fully condensed, unquestionably confirmed (my pics and video don't require any explanation like "there's a tornado there but it didn't have a condensation funnel at that moment," or "it's behind that wall of rain," or "I was too far away to see the debris cloud under that bowl-shaped lowering") tornado that I actually got to tripod my video camera and watch/shoot for several minutes as opposed to running-and-gunning (or the show ending right then and there)...I still won't get over botching that day that the atmosphere tried to gift-wrap for me until I catch a tornado equally as spectacular.

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What a day...

I'll have to figure out my exact tor count, but I think it was around 5 or so. The most notable tors were one near Creston, the strong one SE of Sycamore, and then a large multi-vortex bowl that ended up turning into a big rain-wrapped tor near Virgil.

 

Will have pics and video up at some point int he next day or so.

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Today was really am interesting day for me. Obviously, my meteorological expertise doesn't match that of many of you, so apologies for the crude assessment.

I started the day off by going to the wrong storm (the one up by Davis Junction) which was initially fairly impressive on radar initially but quickly turned into a high-precip aneurysm right as we reached it. Immediately doubled back, went for the cell south of Rockford (SchaumburgStormer said it was getting "that look") which turned out to be a brilliant call. Ended up being right between two cells; the southern one was tiny but actually produced a thin, white, rain-wrapped tube that became the first tornado that I've ever observed. Though it faded after ten minutes and I'm not even sure if it touched down, that tornado alone made the whole trip worth it.

We followed those storms for about an hour, driving back and forth between the two areas of rotation. The SE one (that produced my tornado iirc) had what I considered to be an extremely impressive signature, and another nader was confirmed there but I never saw it. Definitely got way too close to it, I was more or less right next to the couplet which was a certified Dumbass moment™. Never actually saw shit, since the whole thing was another HP shit shoot. Stayed with it anyway, until it cycled again and started rotating hardcore over Saint Charles. Rain wasn't an issue this time, but the terrain was. Got too close to the river and couldn't see shit again, even with sirens going off everywhere. ALEK asked if I was having any luck on that cell, to which I tried replying that I believed it had gusted out mere moments after being warned again, which is a kick in the ass (my reply never sent though I don't think). Abandoned that thing, since it was going straight into suburbia, and went back to the Sycamore storm that everyone else with a brain was following. Got there just a few minutes too later, only got a glimpse of a dissipating wall cloud. After that, I basically started for home, having had my fill for the day.

I'm just glad I got to see that little pipe at the start... If I would somehow have managed to miss every single tornado of the day, I'd never get over it. Obviously I have a lot to learn still.

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New tornado warning out. Could eventually get close to Hoosier but likely staying just south.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
1006 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Will County in northeastern Illinois...

* Until 1100 PM CDT.

* At 1006 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Manhattan, or near Peotone, moving east at
  25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Monee, University Park, Park Forest, Crete, Beecher and Steger.

This includes...  Governors State University.

Including the following interstate...
 I-57 between mile markers 328 and 337.

 

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10 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

With increasing LL SRH with time, storm mode isn't going to make much difference.

Could see a 10% tor and/or 30% wind being needed.

Solid call on the 10.

 

ez tornado day that was painfully obvious last night. Not at all surprised

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Just as today was obvious for tornadoes. Tomorrow is obvious for damaging winds. Perhaps significant. Cams vary widely on placement, but this setup has instability and low level lapse rates in excess and a conservative 25 kts of EBWD. That said, there has been a trend on the HRRR for a shortwave to round the base of the larger scale trough tomorrow and over spread the extremely unstable (5000 MLCAPE??) warm sector with 35-40kts of flow. If this scenario is realized, all bets are off.

 

76547411-F6BD-429C-86EC-441862580FF7.png

E076AE5D-7020-4275-9BF7-3B39A4B76CC7.jpeg

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the rap/mesoanalysis page shows real top end instability over n il later, would be a shame if we don't tap

The problem I see just glancing at things is the lack of waves/disturbances. There is one out west tied to the KS MCS, but that’s it. The main trof is still deep in the N Plains.


.
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Both today and tomorrow look fairly interesting in S WI.  Shear will be a limiting factor today but instability will be off the charts.  I’ll be keeping an eye on any mesoscale enhancement of the wind fields.  
 

tomorrow has also uptrended around here. Instability will be a bit less but still on the high end of climo. Shear will be sufficient for supercells. 

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10 minutes ago, madwx said:

Both today and tomorrow look fairly interesting in S WI.  Shear will be a limiting factor today but instability will be of the charts.  I’ll be keeping an eye on any mesoscale enhancement of the wind fields.  
 

tomorrow has also uptrended around here. Instability will be a bit less but still on the high end of climo. Shear will be sufficient for supercells. 

I will definitely be out and about. Probably nap for a couple hours after work then head to Mt. Horeb or thereabouts, looks like a good jumping off point based on the HRRR. Would like to see it be a little more robust with the UH tracks, but as yesterday show that's not the end all/be all of things.

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  • Hoosier changed the title to August 9-12, 2021 Severe Threats
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