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Tropical Storm Fred


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17 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Minimal hurricane at landfall is not impossible, but any hiccup in intensification tend and that's off the table. w/only 6-7 hours until landfall.

True, but this is far more organized than the fleeting burst of organization we saw yesterday. Very interesting to watch on radar and recon. 

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Screenshot_20210816-092543.png

Quite impressive considering where we were just 24 hours ago wow!!  The only inhibiting factor to me is the dry air punching northeast in the southwest quadrant.  All in all it does have a chance to become a minimal hurricane in the next two to three hours before it encroaches on land and feels the land effects. 

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0
WTNT61 KNHC 161341
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
840 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND COAST TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler radar indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend
out as far as 115 miles (185 km) east of the center of Fred.

This requires an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning along the
coast of the Florida Big Bend eastward to Steinhatchee River. This
change will be reflected in the upcoming 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
advisory package.

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68 knots FL winds, I'm pretty surprised NHC isn't putting out a special statement with at least a hurricane watch.  With landfall hours away, seems like it's a good time now to warn the coast of possible hurricane conditions.

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68 knots FL winds, I'm pretty surprised NHC isn't putting out a special statement with at least a hurricane watch.  With landfall hours away, seems like it's a good time now to warn the coast of possible hurricane conditions.
FL isn't mixing downb527a02a62735e79406915b941ea8b05.jpg

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The latest VDM did show an eyewall developing but open to the south, and that presentation has eroded a bit recently on radar. Recon about to do a SE to NW pass.

I was thinking the same, looking at radar. I'm wondering if once it started moving NW, it was more exposed to shear. Should be back to due north pretty soon

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The latest VDM did show an eyewall developing but open to the south, and that presentation has eroded a bit recently on radar. Recon about to do a SE to NW pass.
Yes, might be a bit premature on a hurricane landfall. It's still possible but we need an eastern eyewall band/convection in the core of Fred to help mix down those flight level obs. There is a dry slot working into the eastern LLC right now. This may persist through landfall. There may be a few gusts near hurricane force in that eastern band outside the low level vort, but Fred is going to need to consolidate a real eastern eyewall before I am more confident in hurricane intensity.
0fde8c7fced94603a3bdbce892f0e4af.gif
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13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yes, might be a bit premature on a hurricane landfall. It's still possible but we need an eastern eyewall band/convection in the core of Fred to help mix down those flight level obs. There is a dry slot working into the eastern LLC right now. This may persist through landfall. There may be a few gusts hear hurricane force in that eastern band outside the low level vort, but Fred is going to need to consolidate an real eastern eyewall before I am more confident in hurricane intensity.
0fde8c7fced94603a3bdbce892f0e4af.gif

Its radar look reminds me of a nor easter. 

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That dry air wrapping in will likely shut off the convection over the llc, similar to what happened yesterday before the overnight blowup. I think Fred had a chance to become a hurricane but that has likely passed. It could certainly generate another burst right before landfall but given the environment and current structure with the feed of dry air from the SW shear, the current convective burst is likely peaked and should be relatively short lived. Overall a solid TS though and very much a formidable system, especially compared to yesterday and the past week 

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Fred is trying. You can see where the LLC vorticity maximum is with the motion of light precipitation returns on the eastern side. Will that fill with strong convection into an eyewall?
cca862bd2cdbb7562950ce3bc139617f.gif

We've been here before.  That's just radar attenuation right!?!?  

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We've been here before.  That's just radar attenuation right!?!?  
You kid.. you kid..

But in all seriousness, this is a strengthening vortex versus a weakening major hurricane. We're watching for how convective organization evolves on the eastern side to get higher potential flight level hurricane force winds to mix down versus the western and southern flank of an eroding hurricane seen in years past.
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As such over the past six hours, the vortex just can't seem hold onto convection long enough to close off a stable eyewall. One attempts to develop and then erodes. This is a telling sign that though shear is not too strong to prevent upshear convection within the vortex, it is still too strong to allow convection to not intermittently erode. Fred is running out of time here. Odds significantly decreasing this reaches minimal 'cane status. As is always typical with higher end Tropical Storms, heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main threat. But we could still see some strong gusts inland this evening.



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15 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

As such over the past six hours, the vortex just can't seem hold onto convection long enough to close off a stable eyewall. One attempts to develop and then erodes. This is a telling sign that though shear is not too strong to prevent upshear convection within the vortex, it is still too strong to allow convection to not intermittently erode. Fred is running out of time here. Odds significantly decreasing this reaches minimal 'cane status. As is always typical with higher end Tropical Storms, heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main threat. But we could still see some strong gusts inland this evening.


 

Fred just won't have enough time to get to hurricane strength. Still a strong TS is nothing to sneeze at. With sustained winds at 60MPH, stronger gusts, possible tornadoes spinning up, flooding rains. 

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Have to see if it’ll close off soon. 
 

Based on Radar, it certainly has been trending in that direction and continuing.
 

Can’t remember off the bat in recent memory seeing one close off right before/on landfall. 

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2 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

Out on Navarre Beach, you can see the storm off in the distance, surf is up even with the offshore flow. 05d34c310149ea3b92709d856c15aeba.jpg
c741d2cd23c9bf768d0449eba72e78da.jpg
6c634de1cefb214d8e3c3e76f6fb1c87.jpg
4a50991eb0624533adcf9ec81d9eea49.jpg


.

I’ve got friends  in Grayton  Beach and in laws at  Seagrove  and Grayton had dramatic picture of leading edge.

Where are those two spots in relation to you and projected landfall?

Thanks 

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I’ve got friends  in Grayton  Beach and in laws at  Seagrove  and Grayton had dramatic picture of leading edge.
Where are those two spots in relation to you and projected landfall?
Thanks 

I’m in between Pensacola & Fort Walton Beach. Grayton & Seagrove are on 30A in Walton county. They are about halfway between me and the projected landfall area.


.
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10 minutes ago, dizzy9479 said:

Josh is in Port St. Joe - his twitter shows heavy rain but almost no wind at all coming in.

Kinda validates the low SFMR readings even with relatively high FL wind barbs. Some bouy observations have shown 50-60 mph sustained winds though 

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