Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,133
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SCseminole
    Newest Member
    SCseminole
    Joined

2021 Central & Eastern Pacific Thread


Windspeed
 Share

Recommended Posts

NHC is forecasting a Category 3 landfall for Hurricane Rick. But the core looks to be in a favorable environment for some beefy rapid intensity gains over the next 24 hours. Leaning towards Rick being a Category 4 landfall near or between Lázaro Cárdenas and Zihautanejo. Hopefully not a direct hit on either city.
4e049f5757196a4cfb903d8fba22d9a5.gif
lol, and then marginal mid level shear and structural core issues had other plans it seems. Rick may not even reach Cat 3. Something something that whole forecasting intensity is hard bit.

Although Rick has been in a seemingly conducive environment for strengthening, the hurricane has not intensified much. This reminds us of our limited understanding of tropical cyclone intensity change. Nonetheless, since Rick should remain over warm waters and in a fairly moist mid-level atmospheric environment before reaching the coast, the official forecast continues to call for some strengthening during the next 12 hours or so. When the center nears the coast, some increase in southwesterly shear and the interaction with the mountainous land mass of southern Mexico could cause some weakening. After landfall, the cyclone will weaken rapidly and the system may lose its identity sooner than shown in this forecast.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

lol, and then marginal mid level shear and structural core issues had other plans it seems. Rick may not even reach Cat 3. Something something that whole forecasting intensity is hard bit. emoji849.png
 

Might not even be a hurricane at landfall lol. This is the second East Pac storm in a row that failed to strengthen despite aggressive forecasts 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Might not even be a hurricane at landfall lol. This is the second East Pac storm in a row that failed to strengthen despite aggressive forecasts 
Yeah, and just to clarify my post, I certainly am not bashing the official forecast. I also clearly thought this would even outperform their intensity forecast with my Cat 4 call. The environment did look primed for RI as a hurricane, not just initial development. But sneaky micro-regional atmospheric conditions, i.e., upper-level northerlies off the central American continent versus mid-level steering flow must have played out as a deterrent here. The structure is just taking way to long to evolve.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...