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SVR-PRE (ELSA) potential NYC subforum Tue-Fri morning July 6-9, 2021


wdrag
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15 minutes ago, jets said:

Talk about a lot of uncertainty on heaviest rain axis

Just remember that the rain shield is never as compact as what the high resolution models predict. Also, the system will be interacting with the jet which will help to both ventilate the system poleward and also fan the system out.

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4 minutes ago, jets said:

Hwrf model takes Elsa to n nj and jackpots e pa and w nj. We shall have a better idea in the next several hours. Feel the WAR will trend this baby west 

That's still the 06z run unless you have something newer. The track over the DE Bay would be similar to Isaias and would open the door for more severe weather. 

hwrf_ref_05L_8.png

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19 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

Hi good morning folks. I’m in west Hampton area and there’s a tropical storm warning here. How bad is this not really familiar with these terms? Should I evacuate?

If the center tracks West of you, pretty good chance at low end tropical storm force winds, especially on the Southern shore of Suffolk. 

The 12z RGEM has some 40-50kt winds for the forks for a few hours but not expecting any impacts worse than your typical strong noreaster. 

Main thing besides the rain that we need to be concerned about is potential for rotating storms as the bands come in off the ocean.

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16 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

Hopefully that does not mean trees knocking down power lines.  Bad memories of 8 days no power from Isaias.

This won’t be anywhere near as bad wind wise as Isaias. Elsa is a weak tropical storm and won’t spend anymore time over water before getting here. Even though it might get an assist from an incoming trough it won’t make it that much worse in terms of wind. The story here is the rain and even that shouldn’t be extreme. Could be a swath of 3-5” probably west of us. We more likely get 1-3” in banding. 

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Just now, MikeS said:

We just had some wild weather roll through Wayne, up near the Oakland/Franklin Lakes border. Torrential downpour, consistent thunder & lightening, and even some hail for about 15-20 mins.

Yup, that's the storm that just went to my South.

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4 minutes ago, MikeS said:

We just had some wild weather roll through Wayne, up near the Oakland/Franklin Lakes border. Torrential downpour, consistent thunder & lightning, and even some hail for about 15-20 mins.

Yea drove  through that and  when I got home in butler hardly  anything . Missed it by 2 miles . Bloomingdale had flooded roadways 

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