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July Disc/obs 2021


George BM
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6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

We have different definitions for fun. :lol:

The one advantage I see for today is that once a storm forms, I don’t see it dying on the doorstep. In other words, whoever gets in the cross hairs of training storms is going to dumped on.

Please let Nationals Park be in the cross hairs.

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3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

We have different definitions for fun. :lol:

The one advantage I see for today is that once a storm forms, I don’t see it dying on the doorstep. In other words, whoever gets in the cross hairs of training storms is going to dumped on.

Could still get a splitter lol.

Whether I get 2" or a tenth, it wont make much difference in the ultimate outcome for the grass, but a good storm with some  booming T&L would be fun. Seems like its been forever. The remnants of Elsa late last week was a good soaker, but totally boring otherwise.

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16 minutes ago, George BM said:

That 25-27K theta-e difference. Is that between the 1000mb and 500mb level?

I generally use the difference between the mixed boundary layer and a representative sample of the theta-e minimum aloft (generally 700-600mb), though there are a few effective methods to choose from depending on the situation.

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6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

We have different definitions for fun. :lol:

The one advantage I see for today is that once a storm forms, I don’t see it dying on the doorstep. In other words, whoever gets in the cross hairs of training storms is going to dumped on.

With beer in hand—it’s all fun! Bring dem storms hon.  B)

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Could still get a splitter lol.

Whether I get 2" or a tenth, it wont make much difference in the ultimate outcome for the grass, but a good storm with some  booming T&L would be fun. Seems like its been forever. The remnants of Elsa late last week was a good soaker, but totally boring otherwise.

Usually there are a bunch of towering cumulus that look like they might become storms at 1 PM, only for the entire cumulus field to slowly fall apart by 5 PM. The sun gets progressively more clouded as the anvils from thunderstorms out west inch their way over and the final outcome is a couple lightning bolts, moderate rain and cool clouds to boot. 

That's at least how it was half the time back on the Delmarva

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1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Usually there are a bunch of towering cumulus that look like they might become storms at 1 PM, only for the entire cumulus field to slowly fall apart by 5 PM. The sun gets progressively more clouded as the anvils from thunderstorms out west inch their way over and the final outcome is a couple lightning bolts, moderate rain and cool clouds to boot. 

That's at least how it was all the time back on the Delmarva

A bit different when there is a trough with a legit front moving through. Storms should be able to sustain even after max heating. Unfortunately for those who were hoping for more widespread significant rain, this is going to be moving through quickly, so its one shot and done. The Ridgely to Goldsboro dead zone watch is in effect though.

 

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1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Ugh. 

Towers went up and helped block out the sun, he finished as the first rumble of thunder happened. Though looks like I won’t see rain out of it. 

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5 minutes ago, high risk said:

seems like at least a 2 line event.   first line filling in from north of Baltimore to west of DC.    Line 2 trying to form back to the west.     Some guidance hints at a third line later in the evening.

The split from the line in MD to the piece in PA, is happening over my head :( 

Hope a second line comes through

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7 minutes ago, mappy said:

The split from the line in MD to the piece in PA, is happening over my head :( 

Hope a second line comes through

        I would think you'll cash in at some point, but it's tough to use the guidance this afternoon, as very few solutions (other than perhaps the ARW2) have a good handle on this lead line.

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Eyeballing the rain gauge, I’m around .70” and climbing.

Jealous. Nothing yet here except thunder. Reminds me of the other day when the line can’t seem to quite make it to me.

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