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Central PA - Summer 2021


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9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

19be9924c6e72ed10b0d65973200d5a7.jpg
Have Pittsburgh meteorologists. 5.9” vs 0.70”. Harrisburg somehow gets slammed every model, doesn’t matter which probably is a pretty strong signal for trouble.


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We will pass on 6 inches of rain. Our city and neighborhoods can barely handle 2 inches of rain. If this was snow the second outcome of .7 would definitely be the winner for KPITT.

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0Z 3k has shifted the max bullseye about 20 miles east.  Looks like Dillsburg is ground zero now with 11.68".  Meanwhile I hit the casino slots with 7.77".  I'm glad Canderson brought up the wind action.  The low is still progged to be around 1003 at its closest approach.  NHC shows that peak winds at each forecast point do not drop below 30mph and in fact slowly begin to go back up as the low passes to our east.  I do think that wind will play a part in exacerbating the rainfall by uprooting trees that are in soaked ground.

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

We should do a rainfall contest. Include the following cities:

Harrisburg 
Lancaster
York
Tamaqua
Williamsport
State College
Chambersburg 
Clearfield

I thiiiink that covers the whole group basically without getting too lengthy. 

 

Lol…I am not participating unless Pillow is included as one of the locations…!

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Lol…I am not participating unless Pillow is included as one of the locations…!

We need to add wind also so when candersan gets a a 43mph guest that takes a shingle and downs every tree within a half mile after 8” of Rain he can claim total victory while losing power for 2 days.


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11 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Harrisburg all time September daily rainfall record set during Lee is 7.17”. I thought I was going bout on a limb earlier in the week comparing this to Lee. I don’t even know anymore, but if Harrisburg gets 9”+ in 24 hours it’s going to be real bad.


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Thanks for posting those maps. Looks like all models agree pretty well right now. Going to say 6 to 10 is a real possibility around Harrisburg, Adams, York and few other places. 

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Thanks for posting those maps. Looks like all models agree pretty well right now. Going to say 6 to 10 is a real possibility around Harrisburg, Adams, York and few other places. 

I was skeptical until every model I saw seemed to be zero in on that stationary front over us And I’m assuming some enhanced lift from something else. Looking at simulated radar Wednesday night is going to be bad. Really bad if some hi res models are correct. Lee’s flooding hit during the day. I fear a nighttime massive flood event.


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I was off the grid for a few days -- weddings, fantasy drafts, golf tournaments -- you name it.  Busy busy.  Actually, we had to travel down to a wedding in Paoli on Friday and some nasty storms had cut through the Downingtown area and did a lot of damage along the Route 30 corridor out there.  Lots of trees down on the highway causing quite the back-ups.  Welp, looks like we are in the bullseye for Ida's remnants.  Everyone ready for some rain?  Fire up those sump pumps!

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Do you guys have better discussions? This is KPIT's latest, and honestly I think it is flat lazy and unacceptable given the uncertainties and impactfulness of this event.

 

Quote
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain from the northern quadrant of Ida will overspread the OH Valley
tonight and continue through most of Wednesday as Ida moves
northeastward through Appalachia. Ida will provide continued moisture
advection against the aforementioned cold front and this will pose a
flood threat to locations under the flash flood watch.

Ida is expected to pivot eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday, and thus will generate a gradient of heavy precipitation
across portions of the region. This gradient, which models are still
trying to nail down, will mean those north of it won`t see much rain,
and those south, could see in excess of 3 inches.

Rain will come to an end after dusk on Wednesday as the remnants of
Ida depart eastward.

The area will dry out and cool down on Thursday.

 

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Honestly this has been a longstanding issue as far back as I can remember with PIT. 

I mean I understand there’s a lot more confidence in a major event in CTP’s area than there is in ours, but I feel like our discussion wouldn’t be any more robust even if such totals were expected in Pittsburgh.

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7 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

How much rain did this area have with Agnes in 1972?..I know the Susquehanna had major problems with flooding

 

3 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

A pretty decent amount

800px-Agnes_1972_rainfall.gif

And as a few others have stated, the big difference between Agnes and Lee when comparing to Ida is how much more of the watershed that was affected by the first 2 storms. Susquehanna will swell down this area somewhat but won't have much extra flow coming down from farther north. 

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