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Central PA - Summer 2021


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58 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Definitely mixed feelings as I’m def excited for the event from a meteorological standpoint but on the other hand not too enthused with the likely major flooding impacts around here (and everywhere else) if we in fact see those 4-7”+ amounts back here in the more mountainous ridge and valley region. 

I agree, same here with the mixed feelings.

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11 hours ago, canderson said:

My guess:

Harrisburg 4.2"
Lancaster 5.1" 
York 5.2"
Tamaqua 2.9" 
Williamsport 2.9" 
State College 3.1" 
Chambersburg 5.4"  
Clearfield 1.3"

Here is my guess for the contest :

Harrisburg - 5.3

Lancaster - 4.6

York - 5.6

Tamaqua - 5.9

Williamsport - 3.1

State College - 3.3

Chambersburg - 6.1

Clearfield - 2.9

Bonus - Pillow - 6.2

Double Bonus - Rouzerville- 5.8

Triple Bonus -Maytown- 4.7

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51 minutes ago, paweather said:

This is a huge event.

I’m going on a limb and disagreeing.  It’ll be nasty and some creeks and roads will flood but I don’t think it‘ll be much worse than a severe 1 hour long storm that drops 2.5” rain. 

A lot of rain will fall. But 6” isn’t devastating. 

Edit: I don’t mean to downplay this event. I just don’t think it’ll be catastrophic-places will definitely flood.  

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Strong wording for CTP

e post-tropical transition of Ida (interaction with the mid- latitude westerlies and quasi-stationary front draped near the MD/PA line) will bring extreme rainfall and considerable flooding impacts to south central PA today into early Thursday. Strong signals in the latest hires ensemble guidance leads to high confidence extreme 24-hr rainfall totals of 4 to 6+ inches with local amounts up to 8 inches possible. The 01/00Z HREF probability of 24hr QPF to exceed 100yr ARI is 70-100% which increases confidence in extreme rainfall even more. To put this into a more localized climatological perspective, we are forecasting a top-5 maximum daily rainfall total at Harrisburg. 
 

 

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8 hours ago, canderson said:

I’m going on a limb and disagreeing.  It’ll be nasty and some creeks and roads will flood but I don’t think it‘ll be much worse than a severe 1 hour long storm that drops 2.5” rain. 

A lot of rain will fall. But 6” isn’t devastating. 

Edit: I don’t mean to downplay this event. I just don’t think it’ll be catastrophic-places will definitely flood.  

Completely agree.  I think this thing is moving along quickly enough and will be just spread out enough to avoid major issues for most.  Now, there will certainly be some localized spots that are hit hard and some moderate flooding at-large, but I don't see this as a Lee or Agnes situation, too progressive.  Also, I expect a relative lull through much of the morning and early afternoon out this way, with the real goods coming this evening.  Still optimistic that the highest totals remain just to my north.  My 7:30am tally was just under an inch.  An exciting day on tap one way or the other.  Good luck to all for whatever your desired outcome is!

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