June 2021

[uncle W]

it looks like the 11 year hot summer cycle is under way...many of them had a cool period in May or June...July 1988 started the month with the second coolest July temperature on record before going on to have a very hot July and August...the first 11 days in June 1988 were quite cool...then five straight 90 degree days and eight all together before the cool down at the end of the month...1955 had a cool June...2021 has already had a heat wave and I expect more to come...

[Stormlover74]

Wasn't expecting overcast and 60s for the 2nd straight day

[nycwinter]

any day you can get from now on till september where it is very comfortable you take it..

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

any day you can get from now on till september where it is very comfortable you take it..

move to canada already 

[bluewave]

Probably a first for weekend temperature volatility from late May into early June.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
432 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 12 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         71   1032 AM  97    2017  81    -10       88       

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
220 AM EDT SUN JUN 06 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 5 2021...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         95R   415 PM  92    1932  78     17       82   

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
432 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 29 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         52    259 PM  97    1987  76    -24       86      

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
434 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2021

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         96    109 PM  98    1992  74     22       77       

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy and again somewhat cooler than normal. However, some warming is likely on Monday. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal.

Out West, an extreme heatwave is now developing in the Southwest, including Phoenix. Late this afternoon, the temperature reached 110° in Phoenix for the first time this year. Last year saw a record 53 such days (prior record: 33, 2011). The least 110° days on record was 0, which was set in 1911. The average number of such days per year is 20.3 (1991-20 normals), which was an increase of 2.3 days from the 1981-10 normals.

The extreme heat will likely continue through much of next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 13-18 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 13: 114°, 1896 and 1936
June 14: 115°, 1987
June 15: 115°, 1974
June 16: 115°, 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 13: 87°, 2018
June 14: 90°, 2018 (earliest 90° low on record)
June 15: 88°, 1936
June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +1.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.086 today.

On June 10 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.136 (RMM). The June 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.512 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

 

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

move to canada already 

to cold for me i don't like cold weather...

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

We had shorter duration but memorable heat in 1966, 1980, and 1983. But those summer averages over 3 months lag behind our modern day summers. 1993 was an interesting case. It was really hot at EWR and NYC before the vegetation got out of control. But it wasn’t nearly as warm for JFK,LGA, and ISP. As for 90° day statistics, 2010 is in a class by itself at the top. With the record high dew points and onshore flow in recent years,  a summer like 2020 ranked very high due to many days in the upper 80s and 90s. While LGA was the standout for 95°+ days, all local stations ranked near the top for summer average high, low, and average temperatures.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	1955	14	0
2	2020	13	0
-	1999	13	0
3	2012	11	0
-	2010	11	0
-	1991	11	0
-	1953	11	0
4	1995	10	0

 

I thought 2010 was pretty amazing for JFK, because it's the only one that had 30+ 90 degree days there (31) and they also had 10+ 95+ degree days (11)!  Three days out of four around July 4th weekend were above 100 there!  I wonder if that'll ever happen again?  It almost seems like the 1995-96 of summers.

1993 had that torrid heatwave after July 4th weekend, I don't know why it seems so much worse than 2010 just for that particular heat wave.  Maybe because that was the last summer I went without AC?  Do you remember it- even JFK had two days above 100 degrees in a row, while NYC had three, and EWR had an astounding 5 (including two in that stretch that reached 105!)  I think EWR finished with an amazing 9 100+ degree days!  Do you think they could ever get 10 of those days?

 

Going back to 1980, I remember that was the first heatwave that I analyzed.  We had an 80 degree average for 2 months- July and August!  That was pretty amazing.  I remember reading that hundreds of people died in St Louis- not so amazing.    But the heatwave covered the country from the third week of June through the third week of September, so pretty much the entire summer.  1983 had one of the hottest three month averages I'd seen, and with the record rainfall, it also had one of the most humid summers we've ever had.  On top of that temps were still hitting 99 in September and still in the mid 90s as late as the equinox and a few days after!

 

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, uncle W said:

it looks like the 11 year hot summer cycle is under way...many of them had a cool period in May or June...July 1988 started the month with the second coolest July temperature on record before going on to have a very hot July and August...the first 11 days in June 1988 were quite cool...then five straight 90 degree days and eight all together before the cool down at the end of the month...1955 had a cool June...2021 has already had a heat wave and I expect more to come...

and we must remember this 11 year hot cycle covered the entire continent, so the drought and heat in the west and even the midwest could be the start of a coast to coast megaheatwave.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 6/11/2021 at 9:49 PM, lee59 said:

It is hot out west in places such as Phoenix. I sometimes wonder how people like such heat. The average high out there at this time of year is over 100 degrees. Not only do you have the heat but the average June precip. is only .09 of an inch. I think that constitutes a desert.

without humidity it's pretty good.

100 degrees and low humidity is great weather to run in even here.

Once it gets above 110 I dont like it so much.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 73degs.(64/81), or just Normal.

Month to date is  73.8[+4.5].         Should be about  73.5[+2.7] by the 21st.

TS in the GoM has most runs into LA., (20th)then a semi-broad turn to the right, so rain misses us w/o phasing.

62*(88%RH) here at 6am, m. clear for now.      Should be cloudy by 1pm.

 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought 2010 was pretty amazing for JFK, because it's the only one that had 30+ 90 degree days there (31) and they also had 10+ 95+ degree days (11)!  Three days out of four around July 4th weekend were above 100 there!  I wonder if that'll ever happen again?  It almost seems like the 1995-96 of summers.

1993 had that torrid heatwave after July 4th weekend, I don't know why it seems so much worse than 2010 just for that particular heat wave.  Maybe because that was the last summer I went without AC?  Do you remember it- even JFK had two days above 100 degrees in a row, while NYC had three, and EWR had an astounding 5 (including two in that stretch that reached 105!)  I think EWR finished with an amazing 9 100+ degree days!  Do you think they could ever get 10 of those days?

 

Going back to 1980, I remember that was the first heatwave that I analyzed.  We had an 80 degree average for 2 months- July and August!  That was pretty amazing.  I remember reading that hundreds of people died in St Louis- not so amazing.    But the heatwave covered the country from the third week of June through the third week of September, so pretty much the entire summer.  1983 had one of the hottest three month averages I'd seen, and with the record rainfall, it also had one of the most humid summers we've ever had.  On top of that temps were still hitting 99 in September and still in the mid 90s as late as the equinox and a few days after!

 

 

You can see how many summer top 10s there have been at JFK and other stations just since 2010. 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	85.4	0
2	2016	83.8	0
-	2011	83.8	0
3	2015	83.3	0
4	2020	83.2	0
-	1971	83.2	0
5	1991	83.1	0
-	1983	83.1	0
-	1949	83.1	0
6	1966	83.0	0
7	2012	82.9	0
8	2008	82.8	0
9	2002	82.7	0
-	1999	82.7	0
10	2005	82.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2016	69.2	0
2	2010	68.9	0
3	1984	68.8	0
4	2015	68.7	0
5	2020	68.2	0
6	1983	68.1	0
7	2011	67.9	0
8	2013	67.7	0
-	2012	67.7	0
-	1981	67.7	0
9	2005	67.6	0
-	1995	67.6	0
10	1955	67.5	0
-	1952	67.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	77.1	0
2	2016	76.5	0
3	2015	76.0	0
4	2011	75.8	0
5	2020	75.7	0
6	1983	75.6	0
7	1984	75.4	0
8	2012	75.3	0
-	1991	75.3	0
9	1971	75.2	0
-	1949	75.2	0
10	2005	75.1	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	32	0
2	1983	26	0
3	2002	21	0
4	1971	18	0
-	1949	18	0
5	2005	17	0
-	1991	17	0
6	2012	16	0
-	1959	16	3
-	1955	16	2
7	2016	15	0
-	1995	15	0
-	1961	15	0
8	1999	14	0
-	1988	14	0
-	1966	14	0
-	1952	14	0
9	2011	13	0
-	1993	13	0
-	1984	13	0
-	1977	13	0
-	1970	13	0
-	1969	13	0
-	1963	13	0
10	2020	12	0
-	2015	12	0
-	2006	12	0
-	2003	12	0
-	1978	12	0
-	1968	12	0
-	1953	12	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70	Missing Count
1	2016	55	0
2	2015	53	0
3	2010	51	0
4	2020	49	0
-	2018	49	0
5	2012	48	0
-	1983	48	0
6	1980	47	0
-	1971	47	0
7	1984	46	0
8	2013	44	0
-	1999	44	0
-	1955	44	2
9	1959	41	3
10	2005	40	0
-	1995	40	0
-	1981	40	0
-	1970	40	0
-	1949	40	0

 

Maximum 30-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	81.3	2010-07-25	0

 

2

80.4

2011-08-02

0

 

3

80.3

1983-08-10

0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1966	104	0
2	2011	103	0
3	1999	102	0
-	1963	102	0
4	2010	101	0
-	1993	101	0
-	1957	101	1
-	1948	101	198
5	2013	100	0
-	1983	100	0
-	1972	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2016	82	0
-	1999	82	0
2	1983	81	0
-	1980	81	0
-	1959	81	3
3	2019	80	0
-	2013	80	0
-	2010	80	0
-	2006	80	0
-	2002	80	0
-	2001	80	0
-	1993	80	0
-	1981	80	0
4	2020	79	0
-	2017	79	0
-	2015	79	0
-	2012	79	0
-	2011	79	0
-	1995	79	0
-	1978	79	0

 

Maximum 7-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	86.4	2013-07-21	0
2	86.4	2013-07-20	0
3	85.4	2013-07-22	0
4	85.1	2013-07-19	0
-	85.1	2006-08-04	0
-	85.1	1993-07-13	0
5	85.1	1983-07-19	0
6	84.9	1983-07-18	0
7	84.9	2006-08-05	0
8	84.8	1993-07-14	0
9	84.7	1981-07-13	0
10	84.4	2013-07-23	0
-	84.4	2011-07-24	0

[Dark Star]

13 hours ago, forkyfork said:

move to canada already 

Too many Canadians...

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and somewhat warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 76°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 79°

The somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will likely persist through midweek. Afterward, a warmer regime could begin to evolve.

Out West, record-breaking heat will develop across the Southwest, including Phoenix. At Phoenix, the temperature will likely reach 115° on multiple days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. It is likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

Daily Records for June 13:

Phoenix: 114°, 1936 (Forecast: 112° to 116°)

Tucson: 110°, 1924 (Forecast: 111° to 113°)

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

Tucson set a daily record high temperature of 110° yesterday. The old record was 109°, which was set in 1924 and tied in 1933 and 1995.

[SACRUS]

 

Clouds burning off here and up to 70.  We'll see how long we can stay sunny before clouds and showers arrive later.  Day 3 of the cooldown which should go through the work week with some warming towards above normal by Tuesday before Wed - Fri turn cooler. 

Rockies ridge firing on all cylinders and should produce may records into the deserts and northern plains 6/14 - 6/19.  Pieces of the heat factory  heat look to spill east in the 6/19 - 6/21 period and offer our next shot at 90s, but ridge position should push storms in to the region in that period as well. 

Beyond there 6/22 and on hints of  more widespread warmth and heat plus looks to build east as riding.  Its 10 days away but perhaps a more steamy pattern.  We'll see if the WAR building west gains any persistence in the coming forecasts,  Warm to hot June overall.  

[SACRUS]

Cooldown dailies

6/11

EWR: 73/65 (-2)
JFK: 71/61 (-3)
NYC: 69/62 (-4)
LGA: 68/62 (-6)
TTN: 65/58 )-7)

 

6/12

TTN: 73 / 61 (-3)
LGA: 71/63 (-4)
NYC: 69/62 (-5)
EWR: 72 / 65 (-5)
JFK: 69/ 59 (-6)
 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Can see the earlier morning low clouds burning off E - W but now higher clouds moving SW into NJ.

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

[bluewave]

You knew that the ridge had to eventually pull back to the West with cooling from the Plains east. It’s just too difficult for the Upper Plains to run a +15 or higher monthly departure during the summer. That is more like what happed during some recent winter and early springs.

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You knew that the ridge had to eventually pull back to the West with cooling from the Plains east. It’s just too difficult for the Upper Plains to run a +15 or higher monthly during the summer. That is more like what happed during some recent winter and early springs.

ECM has 850 temps >18C building into the upper MW/ GL by next Saturday again.  It May be a 5 - 7 day break before theyre  back into the frying pan perhaps shunted south a bit from the prior record heat.  We'll see if we can see that spill east Fathersday and the week of 6/21.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

ECM has 850 temps >18C building into the upper MW/ GL by next Saturday again.  It May be a 5 - 7 day break before theyre  back into the frying pan perhaps shunted south a bit from the prior record heat.  We'll see if we can see that spill east Fathersday and the week of 6/21.

Somebody out West may be able to finish the month at +10 or greater. Looks like the pattern tries to reshuffle a bit later in June. More of a WAR and Plains trough with ridging along the West Coast. 

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ (this part of extreme nw NJ) .01 of widespread 1/4 to as much as spotty 3.0" in the parts of the NYC forum by 10PM Tuesday.  Batch one now in nw NJ, suspect 1-2 batches tonight, possibly 1 leftover batch Monday morning,?and probably 1 more  band Monday evening-night and with the cold low aloft, more scattered showers/tstms in lower 1" PWAT with small hailers possible Tue afternoon and Wed afternoon.  Good for parts of the area.  Been sprinkling here at times since just before 9A this morning then it picked up around 11A.  Probably ready to click .02 by 1145A.

 

Edited 423P: SPC expanded Marginal risk into NYC in their D2 afternoon update.  Looks to me like a few svr will occur e PA/NJ and possibly into NYC late Mon afternoon-evening.  

[TriPol]

Bring on the heat!

[Rtd208]

5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Bring on the heat!

Let's at least get temps back into the mid 80's. This upper 60's to mid 70's temps while nice is for the birds in mid June.

[forkyfork]

21 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Bring on the heat!

ok

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

ok

Hot, steamy & stormy look. Nice

[gravitylover]

You guys are fkd up  70-75 is so much nicer than hot and steamy. I understand appreciating the extremes but why root for unpleasant? 

[lee59]

The Las Vegas- Henderson area of Nevada averages about 4-5 inches of rain for the entire year. A desert. Lake Mead which is nearby is way below where it should be and is the water supply to so many out there. Vegas has already had some 4 plus inches of rain this year. It would seem to me that lake Mead is probably so low not only because it is so dry but so many more people keep moving there and more water is being  used every year. 

[donsutherland1]

49 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The Las Vegas- Henderson area of Nevada averages about 4-5 inches of rain for the entire year. A desert. Lake Mead which is nearby is way below where it should be and is the water supply to so many out there. Vegas has already had some 4 plus inches of rain this year. It would seem to me that lake Mead is probably so low not only because it is so dry but so many more people keep moving there and more water is being  used every year. 

Las Vegas has received 0.85” precipitation year-to-date and 0.89” over the past 12 months.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures will likely remain somewhat below normal through midweek. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Afterward, a warming trend could develop.

Out West, an extreme heatwave is now under way in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Death Valley: 116°
Phoenix: 113°
Salt Lake City: 102° (old record: 100°, 1918)
Tucson: 112° (old record: 110°, 1924)
Winslow, AZ: 106° (old record: 104°, 1918)

The extreme heat will likely continue through much of next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 14-18 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 14: 115°, 1987
June 15: 115°, 1974
June 16: 115°, 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 14: 90°, 2018 (earliest 90° low on record)
June 15: 88°, 1936
June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +4.12 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.639 today.

On June 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.445 (RMM). The June 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.136 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

 

[lee59]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Las Vegas has received 0.85” precipitation year-to-date and 0.89” over the past 12 months.

I read or misread an article that said they received 4 inches this year. I just looked closer and you are absolutely correct, except it said they have received .93 so far this year. I also looked at the last 11 years and according to the stats I read they have averaged 3.9 inches per year.