June 2021

[LoboLeader1]

71 here currently, reached a high of 91 earlier today.

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Classic spot for the storms to fall apart. 

First of probably many this summer.  

Steambath days with the T-storms collapsing just west of you are the worst. 

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Completely died, wow. May not even get a shower here

So far a big .03 inch of rain here. Storm completely died as it came into Nassau.

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, lee59 said:

So far a big .03 inch of rain here. Storm completely died as it came into Nassau.

Yep. Pathetic. Marine layer always decides what makes it east of Queens in the summer. 

[psv88]

39 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep. Pathetic. Marine layer always decides what makes it east of Queens in the summer. 

We do ok with SW winds, but today the winds were almost due south, which is game over. 

[bluewave]

The record heat last several summers in New England is overlapping the lingering cool and wet pattern in Texas since the historic Arctic outbreak.

 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures again rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Some strong thunderstorms moved through the area during the late afternoon and early evening.

More high temperature records were tied or broken across northern New England, Quebec, and New Brunswick today. Records included:

Baie-Comeau, QC: 85° (old record: 73°, 2017)
Caribou: 92° (old record: 87°, 1974 and 2017)
Edmunston, NB: 87° (old record: 84°, 2014)
Fredericton, NB: 92° (old record: 91°, 2008)
Gaspé, QC: 88° (old record: 84°, 1979)
La Tuque, QC: 91° (old record: 88°, 2011)
Miramichi, NB: 93° (old record: 88°, 2017)
Moncton, NB: 91° (old record: 87°, 1950)
Quebec City: 87° (tied record set in 2008)
Sept-Îles, QC: 75°/24.0°C (old record: 75°/23.9°C, 1974)
St. Stephen, NB: 93° (old record: 90°, 2008)
Trois-Rivières, QC: 89° (old record: 87°, 2011)

Two daily rainfall records were set today. Rainfall through 8 pm included:

Newark: 2.19" (old record: 0.92", 1947)
White Plains: 1.55" (old record: 1.19", 1992)

Tomorrow will be another hot day. Afterward, it will become noticeably cooler. Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -18.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.372 today.

On June 6 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.954 (RMM). The June 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.961 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

6/8

EWR: 93
New Brnswck: 92
LGA: 92
TEB: 91
NYC: 90
ACY: 89
BLM: 89
TTN: 89
PHL: 88
JFK: 85
ISP: 85

[mjr]

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

whats causing the heat to go north of us?  one would logically think that heat goes from south to north and therefore has to pass through us before it can get north of us?

 

At this time of year, under the right conditions, the high sun angle and dry ground can cause a hot air mass to be created in the Northern Plains without the need for the heat to be advected from the south. More southern areas may possibly be less extreme because of clouds, precipitation or whatever. This hot northern airmass can eventually be transported eastward to northern New England and Quebec. In this scenario, the heat goes from west to east and not from south to north. 

[mjr]

18 hours ago, mattinpa said:

Hi, Don. I am not so familiar with the different NYC area locations. Was there a reason JFK stayed so low?

A south wind at JFK comes directly off the cool ocean (about 1500 miles of it). At Newark,  even a south wind with no westerly component, travels over about 50 miles of land. Places like LGA and NYC are far enough away from the ocean so that they can experience significant daytime heating even if an afternoon sea breeze eventually cuts it off.  During the spring there can be times when the temperature difference between Newark and JFK can be 20 degrees or more. La Guardia underperforms if the wind direction is from the NE or ENE coming off Long Island Sound. Central Park underperforms if the trees have leaves on them.

Interestingly,  the Boston airport station is also directly on the ocean but  there the ocean is to the east. Thus, a south or southwest wind at Boston will allow for hot temperatures and a west wind even hotter because of a downslope effect. However, a wind from the north through the east (or, alternatively, a light pressure gradient allowing for an afternoon sea breeze) will result in unpleasantly chilly temperatures.

 

Geography is destiny. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, mjr said:

A south wind at JFK comes directly off the cool ocean (about 1500 miles of it). At Newark,  even a south wind with no westerly component, travels over about 50 miles of land. Places like LGA and NYC are far enough away from the ocean so that they can experience significant daytime heating even if an afternoon sea breeze eventually cuts it off.  During the spring there can be times when the temperature difference between Newark and JFK can be 20 degrees or more. La Guardia underperforms if the wind direction is from the NE or ENE coming off Long Island Sound. Central Park underperforms if the trees have leaves on them.

Interestingly,  the Boston airport station is also directly on the ocean but  there the ocean is to the east. Thus, a south or southwest wind at Boston will allow for hot temperatures and a west wind even hotter because of a downslope effect. However, a wind from the north through the east (or, alternatively, a light pressure gradient allowing for an afternoon sea breeze) will result in unpleasantly chilly temperatures.

 

Geography is destiny. 

thats why we need a westerly wind to hit 100 degrees.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yep. Pathetic. Marine layer always decides what makes it east of Queens in the summer. 

Ocean lagging behind despite how warm the spring has been.  I'd expect the ocean to be closer to 70 right now but it's stuck in the low 60s brrrr.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

First of probably many this summer.  

Steambath days with the T-storms collapsing just west of you are the worst. 

Once the ocean warms up dont the storms make it all the way across?

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

So far this season, the ridge axis has been pushed up to the north of our latitude. This was the same story from 2018 to 2020 with the most impressive record highs to our north. This lead to more onshore flow and record high dew points. Plenty of mid to upper 90s heat with the 100°+ maxes at places like LGA and points north. Almost like a version of the SE US Coastal summer moist trade winds pattern. Those places have very high 90° day counts but not many 100° days. Our last widespread 100°s at all stations from EWR to ISP was back the 2010 to 2013 era. The ridge axis was right over the Great Lakes with a strong westerly flow pattern. Same for the July 1995 heatwave. The ridge axis in recent years has stretched further north allowing the warmest 850 mb temperatures to go to our north. That difference has allowed more of a southerly component to the flow than westerly. So we’ll have to see how the ridge axis rebuilds once we get to late June and July. 
 

June 2021 so far

Peak July heat pattern since 2018 

2010-2013 pattern with mid July 1995

 

I was going to say this reminds me of Florida- lots of 90 degree days and very high humidity but doesn't get much higher than 95-96.  

[CIK62]

 The next 8 days are averaging 73degs.(66/84), or about +2.0.

Month to date is  74.8[+6.2].         Should be 73.9[+4.1] by the 17th.

GFS going nuts again with the 90's to celebrate the start of astronomical summer.

70*(97%RH) here at 6am, dirty hazy blue  with clouds.        75* by 9am.     77* at 10am, west wind maybe and no sea breeze for me today?         83* by Noon.          86* by 3pm.

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I was going to say this reminds me of Florida- lots of 90 degree days and very high humidity but doesn't get much higher than 95-96.  

Yeah, mid to upper 90s is still plenty hot especially with the higher humidity since the super El Niño. This has been the longest streak at Newark not to reach 100°. So you can see how unusual this more onshore flow summer heat pattern has been.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	2881	2021-06-08
2	2602	1973-08-27
3	2176	1943-06-24
4	1473	1948-08-25
5	1462	1963-06-30
6	1449	1986-07-06
7	1430	2010-07-03
8	1420	1977-07-18
9	1097	1991-07-19
10	1094	1980-07-19

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly cloudy and very warm. Showers and thundershowers are likely as a cold front crosses the region. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 80s in much of the region. A few places could reach or exceed 90° . Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 89°

Newark: 94°

Philadelphia: 89°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and cooler. Additional showers are possible.

Out West, Phoenix will likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Wednesday period. The last time that happened in June was 2017 when there were five such days. The historic average is 0.4 days per year in June. The 1991-20 average is 0.6 days.  The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

[SACRUS]

 

Sandwiched between the heavy rain and storms yesterday and only .20 in the bucket (barely).  Some clouds around and likely more Florida like storms and sun showers later today.  Dewpoints in low to mid 70s and with enough sun spots will get another 90.  Cooler times ahead Thu 6/10 and through the weekend.  As of now it looks like we will transition from a Florida like weather regime to a Southern California like one this weekend. 

Rockies ridge hulking up next week and producing scorching heat in the deserts with trough into the NE.  Still some unknowns with guidance on the amount rain next week Sun late through Tues, but it should be warmer on Mon (6/14)  - Wed (6/16) and a bit more humid (limited chance at 90).    Thu (6/17) ECM showing a stronger push of cool air for a few days while the GFS pushes the warmer air in sooner.    

It looks like pieces of the heat that will  build out west in the heat factory should eject east in the 6/19 - 6/23 timeframe. The heat factory will manufacture intense heat out west and we'll see if the WAR can expand west and link with the ridge later in the month to establish a prolonged period of heat.  Overall warm to hot June. 

[dWave]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Ocean lagging behind despite how warm the spring has been.  I'd expect the ocean to be closer to 70 right now but it's stuck in the low 60s brrrr.

 

I think 70 ocean temp is a stretch for early June. Wanna be done with any 50s by now, but 60s slowly climbing toward 70 is ok, with 70s thru July to the Aug peaks.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, dWave said:

I think 70 ocean temp is a stretch for early June. Wanna be done with any 50s by now, but 60s slowly climbing toward 70 is ok, with 70s thru July to the Aug peaks.

yeah I've been to S NJ in late June-best you get is 66-68 and that's the last week of June.   (We go in August now it's been crazy warm-like 75 to even 80 once in awhile.)

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Ocean lagging behind despite how warm the spring has been.  I'd expect the ocean to be closer to 70 right now but it's stuck in the low 60s brrrr.

 

BTV is the place to be if you like record warm early season water temperatures. This tweet was back on May 21st. Our local SSTs usually peak in July into August.

 

[donsutherland1]

While parts of the region could see another 90° day today before the heat breaks, it is perhaps an opportune time to look at the New York City area's summer (June-August) records. New York City area refers to the three New York City stations (JFK, LGA, and NYC).

Summer 2020 was the hottest summer on record in the New York City area in terms of the seasonal mean temperature. The records are below:

Highest average maximum temperature: 87.3°, 1966 (NYC)
Highest average minimum temperature: 72.1°, 2020 (LGA)
Highest average mean temperature: 79.5°, 2020 (LGA)

Monthly:

Average monthly maximum temperature: 90.6°, July 2020 (LGA)
Average monthly minimum temperature: 75.2°, July 2020 (LGA)
Average monthly mean temperature:  82.9°, July 2020 (LGA)

Annual:

Most 90° high temperatures: 48, 2010 (LGA)
Most 80° low temperatures: 7, 1908 (NYC), 2002 (LGA), 2020 (LGA)

All-Time:

Highest maximum temperature: 107°, July 3, 1966 (LGA)
Highest minimum temperature: 86°, July 5, 1999 (LGA), August 2, 2006 (LGA), July 19, 2013 (LGA)

 

[Rtd208]

Down here in Cape May it is brutal.  

Current temp is 84/DP 78

[bluewave]

The closer you were to New England, the hotter the last several summers have been. A very impressive run of summer heat across the region since 2010. We never had this many top 10 warmest summers in such a short period of time. 2020 was the warmest summer on record at LGA, BDL, BTV, and CAR. It was the 2nd warmest summer for ISP and BDR. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1993	79.2	0
2	2010	78.7	0
3	1994	78.5	0
4	2011	78.0	0
5	2005	77.8	0
6	1988	77.7	0
7	2020	77.6	0
-	2016	77.6	0
-	1973	77.6	0
8	1999	77.1	0
9	1995	77.0	0
10	2012	76.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	77.8	0
2	1966	77.3	0
3	2005	77.1	0
4	2020	76.9	0
-	1993	76.9	0
-	1983	76.9	0
5	1949	76.8	0
6	2016	76.7	0
-	1999	76.7	0
7	1988	76.6	0
-	1980	76.6	0
-	1906	76.6	0
8	1995	76.5	0
-	1944	76.5	0
9	2015	76.3	0
-	1991	76.3	0
-	1952	76.3	0
-	1943	76.3	0
-	1908	76.3	0
10	1994	76.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	77.1	0
2	2016	76.5	0
3	2015	76.0	0
4	2011	75.8	0
5	2020	75.7	0
6	1983	75.6	0
7	1984	75.4	0
8	2012	75.3	0
-	1991	75.3	0
9	1971	75.2	0
-	1949	75.2	0
10	2005	75.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	79.5	0
2	2010	79.1	0
3	2016	78.8	0
4	2005	78.0	0
5	2018	77.9	0
6	1966	77.5	0
7	2006	77.4	0
-	1999	77.4	0
8	2019	77.3	0
-	2012	77.3	0
-	1991	77.3	0
9	1994	77.2	0
10	1995	77.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2016	75.4	0
2	2020	75.3	0
3	2010	75.0	0
4	2018	74.3	0
5	2012	74.2	0
6	2019	74.0	0
-	2011	74.0	0
-	1994	74.0	0
-	1993	74.0	0
7	2005	73.9	0
8	2013	73.8	0
-	1973	73.8	0
9	1949	73.7	0
10	2008	73.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	74.7	0
2	2020	74.6	0
3	1999	74.5	0
4	2016	74.4	0
5	2011	73.9	0
6	2019	73.8	0
7	2018	73.5	0
-	2005	73.5	0
8	2013	73.4	0
9	2012	73.3	0
-	1991	73.3	0
10	2015	73.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	74.4	0
-	1973	74.4	0
2	2005	73.9	0
3	2016	73.8	0
4	2010	73.7	0
-	1949	73.7	0
5	2019	73.5	0
6	2018	73.3	0
-	1966	73.3	0
7	2012	72.9	0
-	1999	72.9	0
8	2013	72.7	0
-	1994	72.7	0
9	1995	72.6	0
-	1952	72.6	0
10	2006	72.5	0
-	1983	72.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	72.3	0
2	1949	72.2	0
3	2018	72.1	0
4	2005	71.5	0
5	2016	71.4	0
-	1995	71.4	0
6	1901	71.2	0
7	1899	71.0	0
8	2012	70.9	0
-	1999	70.9	0
-	1895	70.9	0
9	1900	70.8	0
10	1955	70.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	66.9	0
2	2018	66.2	0
3	1973	66.0	0
4	1970	65.8	0
5	2014	65.7	0
-	2012	65.7	0
-	1995	65.7	0
6	2010	65.4	0
7	1990	65.2	0
8	2016	64.9	0
9	2005	64.8	0
-	1975	64.8	0
-	1967	64.8	0
10	2019	64.7	0

[SI Mailman]

I think 70 ocean temp is a stretch for early June. Wanna be done with any 50s by now, but 60s slowly climbing toward 70 is ok, with 70s thru July to the Aug peaks.

Raritan Bay was up to 65 degrees on Saturday.

[Cfa]

89/77. Steam bath.

[LoboLeader1]

85 here, RH @ 63%

[FPizz]

88/75

[Intensewind002]

87/69 right now, only 0.04" of rain yesterday, let's see if I can beat that today

[psv88]

90/74 right now, steamy