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June 2021 General Discussion


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13 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The question is, does it translate to extreme heat in eastern portions of the region the way it did in 1988? I’m guessing the drought east of the Mississippi was much more severe in 1988 than it is now.

May 2021 isn't available for plotting yet, but here is a comparison of precip anomalies from 1988 and 2021... through April.

 

cd172_58_143_146_154_15_30_48_prcp.png.cfb53035045a82acfaa458d3a86602ac.png

 

cd172_58_143_146_154_15_32.5_prcp.png.1ba98e5676d5dbd5b48b9b1b386781dc.png

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Based on my calculations, Chicago should be around +8 for the month by the time we get to June 10.  Could be a little higher if the coming days were to verify on the warmer end.

If that occurs, then the 11th-30th would only have to average around +1 to get the month into a top 10 warmest June.

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24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

For those keeping score, the high was 106 in Bismarck and 102 in Fargo.

And INL hit 98, their first 90+ temp in June since 2005 and a new daily record high (old record 92 in 1988). All-time high is 103, June monthly high is 101. Records since 1897.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

For those keeping score, the high was 106 in Bismarck and 102 in Fargo.

As noted earlier, the Bismarck high represents a temperature that was reached two weeks earlier than it has ever been reached in recorded history. As I said earlier this spring, it was only a matter of time before an eye-popping statistic like this was recorded in the Midwest US.

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This is a surprising statement, as other areas of the Dakotas get above 100 sometimes. Other record-breaking temps: Bismarck: 106, Jamestown: 102, Minot: 105, Dickinson: 97.

Quote
100 degrees has been reached here at the office. This is the first time Grand Forks has seen 100 degrees since 1989!  #mnwx #ndwx

 

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Looks like MSP’s low this morning was 78. If they don’t get below that by midnight (could be close), that would be the earliest they’ve ever recorded a low of 78 or above (6/7/11, which itself broke the previous record by over two weeks). It’s certainly not good, but the silver lining is it’s possibly better for public awareness if major population centers are setting these absurd records as opposed to places like International Falls or Bismarck that could be considered BFE to many people.

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51 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Looks like MSP’s low this morning was 78. If they don’t get below that by midnight (could be close), that would be the earliest they’ve ever recorded a low of 78 or above (6/7/11, which itself broke the previous record by over two weeks). It’s certainly not good, but the silver lining is it’s possibly better for public awareness if major population centers are setting these absurd records as opposed to places like International Falls or Bismarck that could be considered BFE to many people.

The UHI at MSP is ridiculous. At first I thought it mostly occurred in the winter due to more lower albedo, less radiational cooling over snow cover, etc. But it’s just as bad in the summer.
 

St. Cloud, a bit north of MSP and much more rural, had a low of 70. 
 

It’s reasonable if UHI adds 2-3 degrees, but not 8. It’s a major problem that needs to be addressed by all of us, led by urban planners and engineers. 

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2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Looks like MSP’s low this morning was 78. If they don’t get below that by midnight (could be close), that would be the earliest they’ve ever recorded a low of 78 or above (6/7/11, which itself broke the previous record by over two weeks). It’s certainly not good, but the silver lining is it’s possibly better for public awareness if major population centers are setting these absurd records as opposed to places like International Falls or Bismarck that could be considered BFE to many people.

I'm not sure how much an abnormally high low temperature does for overall public awareness.  Not even sure an abnormally hot high temperature does much.  I think longevity sticks in the consciousness of the general public more.  If there's a stretch of unmistakably, unusually hot temps, people will more easily be able to recall "remember back in _____ when it was so hot everyday"?

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2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

The UHI at MSP is ridiculous. At first I thought it mostly occurred in the winter due to more lower albedo, less radiational cooling over snow cover, etc. But it’s just as bad in the summer.
 

St. Cloud, a bit north of MSP and much more rural, had a low of 70. 
 

It’s reasonable if UHI adds 2-3 degrees, but not 8. It’s a major problem that needs to be addressed by all of us, led by urban planners and engineers. 

This is the thing. International Falls and Bismarck reaching temperatures weeks earlier than they ever have before is clearly much less affected by UHI and more by AGW, but it affects much fewer people so no one notices. There’s really no good answer here.

46 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not sure how much an abnormally high low temperature does for overall public awareness.  Not even sure an abnormally hot high temperature does much.  I think longevity sticks in the consciousness of the general public more.  If there's a stretch of unmistakably, unusually hot temps, people will more easily be able to recall "remember back in _____ when it was so hot everyday"?

I’m afraid so, but even then, there will be plenty of “what about 1988” and “what about 1936”. Can’t win.

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1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

This is the thing. International Falls and Bismarck reaching temperatures weeks earlier than they ever have before is clearly much less affected by UHI and more by AGW, but it affects much fewer people so no one notices. There’s really no good answer here.

I’m afraid so, but even then, there will be plenty of “what about 1988” and “what about 1936”. Can’t win.

I agree that there's no good answer. Min temps are rising more than max temps and very well may be a product of climate change more than UHI. It's interesting to me because the min averages continue to rise yet we are simultaneously seeing more extreme low temps too. But at the same time UHI is very real. When the disparity between 1st order sites and very nearby areas is far more extreme than it used to be, it's a legit issue to be discussed.

 

The general public can't even remember basic weather from last week much less the difference between weather and climate. That said, I don't see what's wrong with bringing up old heatwaves. it's no different than bringing up old snowstorms as we all do haha. The heat that we saw in the 1930s-50s reign king over anything modern day in many places. The heat was horrendous and deadly and actually I've been researching some old newspapers (remember this is pre air conditioning). As for record early heat in Bismarck, I don't look at that as anything. we had record smashing cold never seen as early as we did in Nov 2019...which was followed by a mild winter.

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14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

What are we punting and why?  It's all so confusing.

I just don't get excited at all over temperature records and droughts... as opposed to actual weather.  Might as well move to southern California if that's all we have to talk about these days.

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17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

First 90 degree day here/DVN/MLI today.  MSP is already up to 98 as of 2pm, very impressive.  A few 100 degree readings in southwest MN already.

also tagged our first 90 here.  

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@Hoosier The discussion concerning UHI reminded me of a discussion a few days ago about LAF. You and Tim mentioned a long-time sensor issue, but it also could be UHI. Coincidentally, a forecaster at IND mentioned it in the early morning discussion today, calling it a "micro-climate."  

"HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA EXCEEDING 90, MOST NAMELY LAFAYETTE WHERE A WARMER MICROCLIMATE HAS BEEN OBSERVED"

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