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Hoosier

June 2021 General Discussion

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Seeing lots of roller coasters incoming for the first half of the month. Polar jet makes a return about once a week through the middle of the month before finally staying north of most of us (according to long range GFS guidance). Surely will change a million times between then and now. Seems like we could squeeze a storm or two out in such pattern... unless the fronts are coming through at 9-10 in the morning like usual lol.

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Just keep the morning of the 10th clear for the eclipse.  That day will actually start coming into range on the GFS pretty soon.  Unlike the one in 2017 when you could pretty much look straight up and watch it, you will need an unobstructed eastern horizon since it's at sunrise.  My #1 choice was to go to one of the lakefront parks to watch the sunrise over Lake Michigan, but the ones I checked don't open until a couple hours later and I don't want to risk sneaking in.  

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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Just keep the morning of the 10th clear for the eclipse.  That day will actually start coming into range on the GFS pretty soon.  Unlike the one in 2017 when you could pretty much look straight up and watch it, you will need an unobstructed eastern horizon since it's at sunrise.  My #1 choice was to go to one of the lakefront parks to watch the sunrise over Lake Michigan, but the ones I checked don't open until a couple hours later and I don't want to risk sneaking in.  

lol

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9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This will no doubt be a cool summer 

I'm gonna disagree with that for most of the sub.  If anybody comes in cooler than average, I'd favor it in the southern part.

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm gonna disagree with that for most of the sub.  If anybody comes in cooler than average, I'd favor it in the southern part.

You're the JB of summer forecasting. What are we going with this year, a combo of 1936 and 2012? :sizzle:

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4 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

You're the JB of summer forecasting. What are we going with this year, a combo of 1936 and 2012? :sizzle:

Currently finalizing my analog list... just have to consult with Chad.

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Currently finalizing my analog list... just have to consult with Chad.

:lol:

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If things work out, could put together some 90 degree days locally starting next weekend.  In any case, looks very summer-like even if some days come up short.

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On 5/24/2021 at 9:54 PM, Harry Perry said:

Seeing lots of roller coasters incoming for the first half of the month. Polar jet makes a return about once a week through the middle of the month before finally staying north of most of us (according to long range GFS guidance). Surely will change a million times between then and now. Seems like we could squeeze a storm or two out in such pattern... unless the fronts are coming through at 9-10 in the morning like usual lol.

This didn’t age well lol. 
 

Latter half of the upcoming week looks borderline heatwave-ish. Dew points pushing 70 with daily highs near 90. Dew points might be a a little overdone for some with how dry the ground is. 

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image.png.d2dabe100cfd1b30df711925e14b9c67.png

The first several days of June won't really feel like it, though. A crapfest of a start is underway with another fall-like system. To add insult to injury, TWC was hinting temps not getting out of the 60s on Wednesday while the GooFuS is hinting highs barely reaching into the lower 60s. Won't be long until NWS caves to TWC soon.

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Biggest unanswered question has to be whether this upcoming stretch of heat will warrant a thread started by Chi Storm.  For pre-solstice (so prior to climo warmest time of year), it could be a relatively impressive stretch.  I mean, the last time there was a streak of 5+ days of 90s in Chicago prior to the summer solstice was in 1994 (which was 6 days long).  I'm just sayin.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

The Euro FINALLY gets some big cape into at least part of the sub by about June 10th.  It's been like pulling teeth to get cape values over about 100 this year.  

...but with like 15kt of deep layer flow, right?

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1 hour ago, Spartman said:

image.png.d2dabe100cfd1b30df711925e14b9c67.png

So, apparently, it's going to rain and storm in Texas and Louisiana all summer, too?  Let's spread it around a bit.

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

So, apparently, it's going to rain and storm in Texas and Louisiana all summer, too?  Let's spread it around a bit.

God help them if they get a hurricane anytime in the next 2 months.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Biggest unanswered question has to be whether this upcoming stretch of heat will warrant a thread started by Chi Storm.  For pre-solstice (so prior to climo warmest time of year), it could be a relatively impressive stretch.  I mean, the last time there was a streak of 5+ days of 90s in Chicago prior to the summer solstice was in 1994 (which was 6 days long).  I'm just sayin.

That surprises me, would've thought there would be at least a few years with a pre-solstice streak as stated.

What kind of June will the Gods bestow upon us, I'm loving the long range so far and tonight I'll be dreaming of 600 dm heights right over my head. Let not last Friday's disgrace be for nothing. 

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11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Biggest unanswered question has to be whether this upcoming stretch of heat will warrant a thread started by Chi Storm.  For pre-solstice (so prior to climo warmest time of year), it could be a relatively impressive stretch.  I mean, the last time there was a streak of 5+ days of 90s in Chicago prior to the summer solstice was in 1994 (which was 6 days long).  I'm just sayin.

More recently, I’m remembering an early June heat wave in 2011 when I lived in the far northern stretches of the MKX forecast area, I know we got into the mid 90s once or twice up there. Looks like Chicago went 87, 92, 85, 93, 96, 95 from the 3rd to the 8th (followed by a 4 day stretch that failed to hit 70). So I guess close but no cigar.

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Biggest unanswered question has to be whether this upcoming stretch of heat will warrant a thread started by Chi Storm.  For pre-solstice (so prior to climo warmest time of year), it could be a relatively impressive stretch.  I mean, the last time there was a streak of 5+ days of 90s in Chicago prior to the summer solstice was in 1994 (which was 6 days long).  I'm just sayin.

I’m not sold...Too many potential issues.

This weekend/early next week will feature waves trapped between the two areas of main ridging, which will likely bring some precip/cloud issues. Then beyond early next week, how far north the ridging builds continues to be in question. And then add in that guidance has been terrible outside of 2 days out for months now.


.

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9 days until the sunrise eclipse.  Hopefully you saved your eclipse glasses from 2017, but if you didn't and are interested in a convenient viewing method, they can be found for a relatively cheap price iirc.

In parts of Canada, this will be an annular solar eclipse -- where the moon blocks off all but a narrow ring of the sun all the way around.  It is a partial eclipse in the US and other parts of Canada, but I would almost call it a super partial in areas like Sault Ste Marie and Toronto since a very large amount of the sun will be covered.  In general, this eclipse will look more impressive the farther north and east you are in the subforum (as long as the weather cooperates, of course).

Here is a snapshot of what things will look like at sunrise.  If you're left of the middle line, there will be less and less eclipse to view after sunrise.  If you're right of the middle line, the maximum eclipse will happen after sunrise.  

ASE2021_SunriseFigures.jpg.4454bfcf2ec307e3e20508bef992705e.jpg

 

Here's an interactive website where you can find exact details/times for your town.  For Chicago, the window is from approximately 5:15 (sunrise) to 5:39.

http://xjubier.free.fr/en/site_pages/solar_eclipses/ASE_2021_GoogleMapFull.html

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


I’m not sold...Too many potential issues.

This weekend/early next week will feature waves trapped between the two areas of main ridging, which will likely bring some precip/cloud issues. Then beyond early next week, how far north the ridging builds continues to be in question. And then add in that guidance has been terrible outside of 2 days out for months now.


.

Darn, was hoping to bait you into starting a thread.  Maybe it'll happen yet.  :scooter:

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Near record to record heat up my way this weekend. Highs in the upper 80's to low 90's expected. Sweatin time coming early this year.

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21 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

So, apparently, it's going to rain and storm in Texas and Louisiana all summer, too?  Let's spread it around a bit.

You can have it all.

My first Spring and start of Summer in Texas has featured a dismal severe weather season, a metric ton of rainy/cloudy days and not a death ridge in (reliable) sight. I thought I would at least have hot/sunny weather with multiple rounds of severe t'storms to look forward to after the disaster in February, but it's not happening so far.

Might as well be back in Michigan...

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

9 days until the sunrise eclipse.  Hopefully you saved your eclipse glasses from 2017, but if you didn't and are interested in a convenient viewing method, they can be found for a relatively cheap price iirc.

In parts of Canada, this will be an annular solar eclipse -- where the moon blocks off all but a narrow ring of the sun all the way around.  It is a partial eclipse in the US and other parts of Canada, but I would almost call it a super partial in areas like Sault Ste Marie and Toronto since a very large amount of the sun will be covered.  In general, this eclipse will look more impressive the farther north and east you are in the subforum (as long as the weather cooperates, of course).

Here is a snapshot of what things will look like at sunrise.  If you're left of the middle line, there will be less and less eclipse to view after sunrise.  If you're right of the middle line, the maximum eclipse will happen after sunrise.  

ASE2021_SunriseFigures.jpg.4454bfcf2ec307e3e20508bef992705e.jpg

 

Here's an interactive website where you can find exact details/times for your town.  For Chicago, the window is from approximately 5:15 (sunrise) to 5:39.

http://xjubier.free.fr/en/site_pages/solar_eclipses/ASE_2021_GoogleMapFull.html

Should be amazing to see at sunrise! Somewhere like Port Clinton, OH would be ideal for this

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