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May Discobs 2021


George BM
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83 here. Nice day.

Looking like it will be on the cooler side of what was possible over the next couple days here. Low 80s for highs and mid to upper 50s for lows.

Upper 80s still looking reasonable for the weekend. Would be nice to see a few showers, but still appears to be iffy and scattered at best.

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15 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Unfortunately, we are seeing air quality go the wrong way as more vehicles hit the road.  If you have Twitter, I recommend following Ryan as he's the regional expert on Air Quality:

https://twitter.com/ryans_wx

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As for rain chances, this shortwave dropping down late in the day Sat as the ridge retrogrades further SW looks to be the best chance.

Both the FV3 hi res and NAM nest are hinting at some decent convection developing, mostly for the eastern third of the region.

gfs_z500_vort_us_11.png

Low probability for now. Next chance would probably be Thursday of next week, although the GFS and ICON have some moisture for the higher terrain to the west and sw on Monday. 

Get ya sprinklers out.

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There's a little bit of smoke aloft in the air. Just enough to give the sun and sky that smoky look that you've noticed but haven't posted about because it isn't obvious enough :P, unlike last September. 

The gust front moving through from ESE to WNW could have wind gusts up to 25mph.

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25 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Haven’t been paying attention for a while, because why, is this the back door cold front mentioned from earlier this week?

Its due to that high building to the SW on the NW side of that Atlantic low. Characterizing it as a back door front seems reasonable.

nam.thumb.png.5c8cf889f29fd1162c4decac3e20f4ee.png

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48 this morning.

Looks like one more day of low dews and pleasantly warm temps before the heat and humidity builds in for the weekend.

Front looks generally dry for late Sunday, then a cool Monday, before another bout of heat after that. Still no widespread rain in sight.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

48 this morning.

Looks like one more day of low dews and pleasantly warm temps before the heat and humidity builds in for the weekend.

Front looks generally dry for late Sunday, then a cool Monday, before another bout of heat after that. Still no widespread rain in sight.

Its august weather with cooler mornings for the time being

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

48 this morning.

Looks like one more day of low dews and pleasantly warm temps before the heat and humidity builds in for the weekend.

Front looks generally dry for late Sunday, then a cool Monday, before another bout of heat after that. Still no widespread rain in sight.

Mid 90s next week?

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Euro and several of the GFS members really pumping the heat during the middle of next week. Could endanger the record highs for IAD. From this morning's LWX AFD:

Record highs and record warm lows late this week into early
next week. DCA, BWI and MRB records are probably out of reach,
but the IAD records could be matched.

DateSite    DCA        BWI        IAD        MRB
Fri 5/21   95   71    96   71    92   67   100   65
          1934 1996  1934 1934  1996 2013  1934 1996

Sat 5/22   96   71    98   71    88   67    98   68
          1941 1959  1941 1903  2004 1975  1934 1959

Sun 5/23   97   74    98   69    92   70   100   68
          1925 2004  1925 2004  1964 2004  1925 2004

Mon 5/24   92   72    93   72    90   69    96   67
          1964 2004  1933 2004  1964 2004  1941 2011

Tue 5/25   94   71    94   70    92   67    94   67
          1880 2012  1991 1936  1991 2004  1933 1991

Wed 5/26   96   74    94   74    92   71    96   69
          1880 1991  1914 1880  2007 2018  1914 2018
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12Z gfs goes for a washout Memorial Day weekend and almost 2” of rain. Been some guidance hints of things getting stormy around that period so worth watching. Of course that would rain out my sons baseball tournament, which isn’t ideal.

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

12Z gfs goes for a washout Memorial Day weekend and almost 2” of rain. Been some guidance hints of things getting stormy around that period so worth watching. Of course that would rain out my sons baseball tournament, which isn’t ideal.

GFS gets some convection in here late Wed, the only "hot" day, with some ul energy coming in from the west as the ridge flattens/moves out. Gets very active beyond that.

Euro also looks more active towards next weekend, although not quite as wet as the GFS is suggesting.

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