May 2021

[Rjay]

81/65

[rclab]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The overgrowth of vegetation blocking the sensors has been well known for a while now. They would need to move the ASOS to a clearing away from any trees. The video below shows the correct sitting of weather sensors in parks or more rural settings.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USW00094728/detail

Obstruction Descriptions

OBSTRUCTIONS	BEGIN DATE¹	END DATE¹
TREES	2021-04-06	Present
TREES	2017-08-01	2021-04-06
TREE 020-340 deg 25-25 ft 20-54 deg	2016-06-15	2017-08-01
HYGR 090/4 TREES ENCIRLCE/25/20-54 IN FENCED ENCOLSURE 50 FT X 25 TH	1995-06-27	2016-06-15
UNIV 050/4 CRS 180/9 H083 SENSOR 200/8 TB 220/20 TREES ENCIRCLE/25/20-54 EQUIPMENT IN FENCED ENCLOSURE 50 FEET X 25 FEET	1992-01-01	1995-06-27

http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

 

 

Thank you so very much for the detailed and even explanation/discussion. You’ve made me nostalgic for the way information/news was formally reported, with content/facts being more important than opinion/bias. I’ve sent the video to my grandson who is already showing an interest in atmospheric science. As always ...

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, rclab said:

Thank you so very much for the detailed and even explanation/discussion. You’ve made me nostalgic for the way information/news was formally reported, with content/facts being more important than opinion/bias. I’ve sent the video to my grandson who is already showing an interest in atmospheric science. As always ...

No problem. The Central Park sensors used to be located in direct sunlight before the trees created deep shade. My rough calculation is that this has created an artificial 2° to 3° average maximum temperature summer JJA cooling since 1971. Notice how the mean summer high temperature increase at the other local stations since 1971 has been +2.7°.The high temperature staying steady at NYC instead of increasing was a function of trees blocking the sun.

1971 to 2020 summer JJA high temperature increase 

NYC….82.9….82.9…..0.0

LGA…..81.0….84.9….+3.9

EWR….83.4….85.4….+2.0

JFK…..80.1…..82.3..+2.2

ISP…….78.5…..81.6..+3.1

HPN….79.0….81.6…+2.6

BDR….79.1…..81.4…+2.3

 

[forkyfork]

11 hours ago, forkyfork said:

forecast 850s are higher tomorrow and the nw downslope flow is stronger. i think ewr hits 98 and possibly ties the may record of 99

so far the dewpoints aren't mixing out despite the stronger nw flow. oh well

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

so far the dewpoints aren't mixing out despite the stronger nw flow. oh well

felt more humid yesterday then today..

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

No problem. The Central Park sensors used to be located in direct sunlight before the trees created deep shade. My rough calculation is that this has created an artificial 2° to 3° average maximum temperature summer JJA cooling since 1971. Notice how the mean summer high temperature increase at the other local stations since 1971 has been +2.7°.The high temperature staying steady at NYC instead of increasing was a function of trees blocking the sun.

1971 to 2020 summer JJA high temperature increase 

NYC….82.9….82.9…..0.0

LGA…..81.0….84.9….+3.9

EWR….83.4….85.4….+2.0

JFK…..80.1…..82.3..+2.2

ISP…….78.5…..81.6..+3.1

HPN….79.0….81.6…+2.6

BDR….79.1…..81.4…+2.3

 

put the censors right outside the park so that you can claim their central park temps but the temps will be more realistic

[uncle W]

is the foliage around the parks prob effecting nightime lows also?...high or low...

[CIK62]

We have some clouds to get through.       Could be a break soon, then another area of cloudiness may pass by from nw to se.      Day should end clear.  

I have 82*(52%RH) at Noon

[psv88]

Clouds keeping temp to 84, off a high of 85. Not sure we see 90

[Rjay]

51 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

felt more humid yesterday then today..

But it wasn't. 

[donsutherland1]

Changes in Summer (June-August) Average High Temperatures (1971-00 vs. 1991-20 Means):

Bridgeport: +0.9°
Islip: +1.3°
New Brunswick: +1.4°
New York City-JFK: +1.0°
New York City-LGA: +1.6°
Newark: +0.8°
Poughkeepsie: +1.1°
White Plains: +1.0°

Average: +1.1°
Median: +1.1°
Standard Deviation: +0.3°

Trimmed Mean (excluding the highest and lowest changes): +1.1°
Second Trimmed Mean (excluding the two highest and lowest changes): +1.1°

New York City-Central Park: -0.1° (more than 3 sigma below the regional change excluding Central Park)

Note: The tree obstructions at Central Park were noted beginning in 1992

 

[SACRUS]

1PM Round up:

 

ACY: 90
EWR: 90
JFK: 89
New Brnswck: 89
PHL: 89
BLM: 88
TTN: 87
ISP: 84
NYC: 84
TEB: 84
LGA: 83

[SACRUS]

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

These are the occurrences:

July 1, 1963: JFK: 102; NYC: 98

July 4, 1966: JFK: 101; NYC: 98

July 23, 1972: JFK: 100; NYC: 94

July 16, 1983: JFK: 100; NYC: 96

August 20, 1983: JFK: 100; NYC: 96

July 4, 2010: JFK: 101; NYC: 96

July 18, 2013: JFK: 100; NYC: 98

I know a few of these well!  I didn't realize it happened twice in 1983 though lol.  July 4th 2010 was one of my favorite July 4 ever, it was such a dry heat that it didn't even feel like 90 let alone 100.  I wish every summer was like that!

I remember the one in 2013 also and I think it was 2017 or 2018 JFK had back to back 99 and barely missed reaching 100 when NYC was stuck at 95 or 96.Had a heat index near 120 both days too, which was the highest on record for JFK.

1966 and 2010 were very similar, peak dry heat and downslope wind enabled JFK to top NYC.

 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

1PM Round up:

 

ACY: 90
EWR: 90
JFK: 89
New Brnswck: 89
PHL: 89
BLM: 88
TTN: 87
ISP: 84
NYC: 84
TEB: 84
LGA: 83

blah we can already tell today wont be anywhere near as hot as yesterday was

 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Changes in Summer (June-August) Average High Temperatures (1971-00 vs. 1991-20 Means):

Bridgeport: +0.9°
Islip: +1.3°
New Brunswick: +1.4°
New York City-JFK: +1.0°
New York City-LGA: +1.6°
Newark: +0.8°
Poughkeepsie: +1.1°
White Plains: +1.0°

Average: +1.1°
Median: +1.1°
Standard Deviation: +0.3°

Trimmed Mean (excluding the highest and lowest changes): +1.1°
Second Trimmed Mean (excluding the two highest and lowest changes): +1.1°

New York City-Central Park: -0.1° (more than 3 sigma below the regional change excluding Central Park)

Note: The tree obstructions at Central Park were noted beginning in 1992

 

But NYC still did well in the amazing summer of 1993, so it had to be after that?
 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

This weekend actually looks like our last dry heat for a while. The next warm up on Wednesday is forecast to be more humid. So we may get back to the familiar 70° dewpoints. It would fit with the guidance showing better rain chances coming up. 

 

Chris, you wouldn't have any idea for what the type of heat we might get on July/August would be like this far in advance would you?  I hope we get back to this.

Also, how is it LGA only reached 88 yesterday- I was shocked by that.  It actually reminds me of very early season snowfalls where LGA is raining or mixing and its snowing at JFK and accumulating (like Oct 2012 and Nov 2013)

 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, you wouldn't have any idea for what the type of heat we might get on July/August would be like this far in advance would you?  I hope we get back to this.

Also, how is it LGA only reached 88 yesterday- I was shocked by that.  It actually reminds me of very early season snowfalls where LGA is raining or mixing and its snowing at JFK and accumulating (like Oct 2012 and Nov 2013)

 

The winds were from the nw and LGA is on the LI sound. JFK usually hotter than LGA with a nw wind

[dmillz25]

Up to 89 here

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But NYC still did well in the amazing summer of 1993, so it had to be after that?
 

The tree issue was much smaller back in 1993 than it is today.

JFK has reached a high of 90° so far. 

[Rjay]

KNYC is the new Montauk 

[psv88]

High today was 87, 86 now. Not sure we get to 90

[SACRUS]

Some late afternoon maxes today with some more clearing and peak 850.   Clouds definitely ate into early afternoon heating. 

[Cfa]

88 now, I’d say 90 is still within reach here.

[nycwinter]

27 minutes ago, Rjay said:

KNYC is the new Montauk 

no montauk is cooler then the park how many days it was in the 80;s or 70;s in the city and montauk was in the 50;s

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, Cfa said:

88 now, I’d say 90 is still within reach here.

88 here as well. Will be close 

[LoboLeader1]

84 here, I  don't think we hit 90 today. RH@45%

[Brian5671]

models back to dry for the next 7-8 days after showing a deluge by the Euro yesterday

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models back to dry for the next 7-8 days after showing a deluge by the Euro yesterday

Its all goning to be depend on the flow and if any ULL can cut off and where that is, west of the area or like the prior ecm showed.   still would keep an eye on next weekend (Fri - Sun) period.  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, you wouldn't have any idea for what the type of heat we might get on July/August would be like this far in advance would you?  I hope we get back to this.

All that we know is the new default winter and summer patterns since the super El Niño in 15-16. Warmer than normal winters with above normal snowfall. The two exceptions were the below normal snowfall winters in 18-19 and 19-20. But they were still warm. The summers since 16 have been warmer than average and more humid. The only outlier was the cooler 2017 summer but it was still humid. So it’s very difficult to know ahead of time when the coming season is going to deviate from recent experience.