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wdrag

Few Tstms with hail-gust 40-45KT 1P-6P especially NJ/se NYS/w LI

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SPC continues Marginal risk se NYS-NJ.  00z-06z/20 HRRR/NAM/EC have decent development Wednesday afternoon.  TT near 53 flag attention for hail and gust transfer looks like 40-45KT. Follow NWS local offices/SPC/and our own members assessments.  

Have added the SPC discussion plus the EC (just below SPC)/GFS (below EC) fcst sounding for 18z/21 n central NJ as an idea of what seems to be coming via convection for NJ.  CAPE is marginal and KI OK.  Activity while still fairly strong crossing LI/CT will ingest cooler southerly inflow from the ocean to limit potential hailers/wind gusts? Even so, the wind shift with significant cold air advection during the evening may induce isolated gusts 40 kt on the island? 

Have a look. This thread should also serve well for any significant reports of whatever convection occurs Wednesday afternoon. 

 

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Pretty reasonable parameters will be in place for at least some reports of severe tomorrow but probably nothing too widespread. Temps crash then thereafter too....those of us who are inland might see our last flakes (for sure this time) for at least the next six months with permanent warmth looking like its only a week out at this point.

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Looks like an early round of showers next few hours. Then we’ll see how much we can destabilize going into the afternoon. The latest HRRR has a line of strong to potentially severe convection this afternoon.

 

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Thanks for keeping up w this...  have had big sprinkles here in Wantage at 815A.  Cold influx is soo fast, while it's hailing near NYC at 3P (if it's hailing), it could be snowing in parts of the Poconos including KMPO. HRRR gusts are starting to nudge slightly higher in isolated cells (I think 40KT+, especially NYS-CT).  Off to work for me. Have a day. 

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13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Crapvection might ruin our chances.  Pouring at work in Massapequa.  

6z NAMS and RGEM seemed to suggest that, however as Walt notes the HRRR is more bullish.

=

sunny here and already 61 degrees

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Heavy rain and thunder here. I’d be surprised if we recover enough for more after this but we’ll see. 

I can hear thunder from that line and see the dark clouds off to my S.   It looks to just miss here...

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55 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Crapvection might ruin our chances.  Pouring at work in Massapequa.  

This always happens in the mornings where we're supposed to get big storms. We get these crappy little rainstorms in the morning and that destroys our chances for big action later in the day.

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Good chance that the storms begin to intensify right over top of me in about two hours’ time. Greatest threat is much more confined to my East but I could see a good storm here anyway.

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Just now, NycStormChaser said:

I think this was always a threat for NYC / NE NJ into the Hudson Valley. Long Island was never really in the game. 

yep with south winds off the still cold ocean/sound, anyone east of the Hudson will have trouble maintaining strength....

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I see on radar some convection is starting to fire in eastern PA. The models aren't as impressed with rain amounts as they were the last couple days, but I'm hoping for a nice downpour for the vegetable garden this afternoon. It has really dried out the last week. If not this afternoon then obviously we'll have to wait for the soaking rain saturday night into sunday, but radar in eastern PA is starting to look promising for the possibility of a storm early this afternoon.

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Not too often you're in a Severe Thunderstorm Warning and Freeze Warning area at the same time.

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