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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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Long thread offering some thoughts on why the ITCZ and Caribbean activity have been suppressed up until now in Oct...

Why some forecasters are convinced the season is over in the Atlantic:

...And how a significant change in the pattern is coming next two weeks that favors better chance of Caribbean activity:

 

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In addition to the potential subtropical system evolving as the E coast storm shifts eastward into the central Atlantic, we have a tightly-wound low south of Italy that has subtropical characteristics.  It already has produced devastating flooding in Sicily yesterday.  Facing lots of shear now, but that should weaken Thu into this weekend when this system has a decent chance of becoming fully tropical. 

These "Medicane" systems appear to becoming more common vs. the 1970s to early 1990s, especially the more intense ones that produce hurricane force winds.  Medicane Ianos in Sep 2019 dropped to 984 mb and reached peak intensity 100 mph (!) sustained winds in the coastal waters near sw Greece just before making landfall, according to a recent paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-20-0274.1/BAMS-D-20-0274.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display.  

Another weaker one in early in Oct 2019 tracked unusually far east through the Mediterranean and reached Israel and Egypt with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
 

 

 

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Outside chance for a brief tropical depression or low-end TS in the eastern Atlantic this weekend into early next week.  Would likely be unprecedented per climo so late east of 40W (I couldn't find any TS+ in NHC best track back to late 1800s, but it doesn't include TDs). 

The fact that we even have a *potential* system to discuss in the eastern MDR so late is nothing short of remarkable. Likely the lingering Atlantic Nino is playing a role, with ITCZ tugged south of usual, allowing waves to stay over more favorable SSTs/upper level winds than is typical for this time of year.
 

 

 

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Thread on #94L which is gaining convection and will likely be named soon as a subtropical storm.  It could briefly complete transition to tropical in the next day or two, before shear increases.

Wouldn't rule out the possibility it becomes a strong STS or hurricane by mid next week as shear decreases again, but first it has to weather the rapid ramp-up in shear over the weekend.
 

 

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My bet was a dead August and a fired up October/November. It appears my weather tarot was misread...

The cards don't lie, but interpretation is subject to human error. "Human Error" is my middle name sometimes!

Ready for that very rare snowfall in Tampa Bay. My camera is ready. But mets are predicting a long dry winter down here. If so, hope it stays warm. Cold and dry is no fun.

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9 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Eh? Nina is supposed to favor the Atlantic, and in particular the western basin in October (although not always, see 2017).

It's the Hurricane Trackers that have been waiting for possibly the LONGEST time EVER!

 

I've never seen this before, But all it takes is one storm to change this trend . . . 

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On 10/27/2021 at 11:29 PM, jconsor said:

In addition to the potential subtropical system evolving as the E coast storm shifts eastward into the central Atlantic, we have a tightly-wound low south of Italy that has subtropical characteristics.  It already has produced devastating flooding in Sicily yesterday.  Facing lots of shear now, but that should weaken Thu into this weekend when this system has a decent chance of becoming fully tropical. 

These "Medicane" systems appear to becoming more common vs. the 1970s to early 1990s, especially the more intense ones that produce hurricane force winds.  Medicane Ianos in Sep 2019 dropped to 984 mb and reached peak intensity 100 mph (!) sustained winds in the coastal waters near sw Greece just before making landfall, according to a recent paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-20-0274.1/BAMS-D-20-0274.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display.  

Another weaker one in early in Oct 2019 tracked unusually far east through the Mediterranean and reached Israel and Egypt with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
 

 

 

The Mediterranean subtropical cyclone, named Apollo, was one of the longest lasting ones I can recall - almost 10 days.  It also developed tropical characteristics for a time while it was close to Sicily and Malta:
 

 

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Wanda has been quite a resilient, long-lasting system for so late in the year in the subtropics.  Has a chance to strengthen into a strong TS or lower-end hurricane Sun-Mon if it gets pulled north by a strong trough and thus moves parallel to shear vector, as shown by several recent GFS and HWRF runs.
 

 

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Even if you take out all the “junk” storms we still had above normal ACE. Numbers wise it was certainly above average though you could argue maybe 5-6 storms BARELY met naming convention or were named for such a short period of time it almost feels wrong counting them, but I regress. Throw in a bonafide cat 4 US landfall and another major strike in Mexico and at a minimum this was a significant hurricane season. The long trackers and a rare Canadian hurricane impact also gave the season a little more credit. Only thing that docks it a few notches in my opinion was the lack of a Caribbean season especially in October and a few long dry spells with no storms of significance to track. I’ll give it an above average grade of a B+. It would’ve cracked an “A” with just 1 October hurricane 

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