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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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13 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Interesting to think back how this season would compare to other seasons say in the past 20 years (even though it's not even over yet).  In terms of US impacts, obviously 2004, 2005, 2017, and 2020 stand alone.  But other than those, 2011 had Irene, 2012 had Sandy, 2016 had Matthew brushing the coast, 2018 had Michael and Florence.  2007 and 2008 destruction was mostly in the Caribbean and Central America.  I can't think of any really bad US impacts in 2000-2003, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013-2015, and 2019.  With the mere presence of Ida, in terms of US impacts I'd put this season just behind 2004, 2005, 2017, 2020, and maybe 2008 in the past 21 years.  Definitely wouldn't call it a dud.

Personally, I’d rate them in the following order (2002-2021):

(U.S. mainland only)

2005: (6 H strikes/4 MHs/Katrina)

2004: (6 H strikes/3 MHs/Charley)

2017: (3 H strikes/2 MHs/Harvey, Irma)

2020: (6 H strikes/3 MHs/Laura)

2018: (2 H strikes/1 MH/Michael)

2021: (2 H strikes/1 MH/Ida)

2008: (3 H strikes/0 MHs/Ike)

2012: (2 H strikes/0 MHs/Sandy)

2016: (2 H strikes/0 MHs/Matthew)

2003: (2 H strikes/0 MHs/Isabel)

2011: (1 H strike/0 MHs/Irene)

2014: (1 H strike/0 MHs/Arthur)

2002: (1 H strike/0 MHs/Lili)

2019: (2 H strikes/0 MHs/Dorian)

2007: (1 H strike/0 MHs/Humberto)

2006: (0 H strikes/0 MHs/Ernesto)

2010: (0 H strikes/0 MHs/Earl)

2015: (0 H strikes/0 MHs/Bill)

2009: (0 H strikes/0 MHs/Ida)

2013: (0 H strikes/0 MHs/Andrea)

The list is naturally subjective. Speaking of subjective analysis, you’ll notice the inclusion of  “Sally” as a MH (in the totals) for the 2020 season, as the data supports a 100 kt landfall intensity…in my personal opinion.

It’s also important to note that “Ernesto” of 2006 may have actually achieved a 65 kt Cat 1 intensity, at landfall, as mentioned in its TCR.  Also, H Earl of 2010 brought HF winds to the Outer Banks of NC even though it passed 90 nm offshore to the E.  

Gave 2015 the edge over the subsequent two seasons, shown on the aforementioned list, in deference to the historic flooding that occurred in SC…caused in part by MH Joaquin.   
 

Edit: Could possibly move 2002 above 2014 considering the significant impact of TS Isidore.  

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4 hours ago, Prospero said:

It was the sloppy eyes for me! ;)

Edit: Except the Yucatan eyes which were amazing...

Although 5 of the 6 U.S. hurricane landfalls were intensifying or steady-state at landfall…only two actually had well-defined eyewall structure (Hanna & Laura)…as you alluded to.  
 

Laura the best of those six:

A7EE4880-67F7-4C4A-81A3-29677C24A17B.png

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11 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Definitely a very nasty hurricane season. If you put a gun to my head and asked what seasons in the last 20 years of tracking were "epic" in my memory, I'd categorize them as something like this:

EPIC

2004, 2005, 2017

ALMOST EPIC 

2008, 2018, 2020, 2021

 

Alot of people might chastise me for not including 2020 in the "epic" category, and it certainly was in terms of named storms. But I don't know...there was something about 2020 that was just barely lacking. I can't figure out what it was. I think September was sort of a letdown. We had the slew of fish (Omar, Paulette, Rene, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred) and Hurricane Sally which I actually thought was worse than it ended up being. I was kinda surprised the name wasn't retired.

 

2004, 2005, and 2017 had those "violent" epic long-trackers. Frances, Ivan, Irma. Something different about those years. The Charley and Harvey Cat 4 explosions in August. Funny enough: They're the only three seasons to hit over 200 units of ACE for a hurricane season the last 20 years. 2020 didn't. Maybe that's what I mean by the difference in the intensity of the seasons. 2004, 2005 and 2017 just had a different vibe.

With all the talk about how active/favorable it was supposed to be, the lack of a >40 ACE (landfalls or no) Sam/Irma/Ivan-quality system that had us waking up to a gorgeous stadium eye for days on end really stood out like a sore thumb in September 2020. Teddy tried but couldn't quite get on that level. For a while it looked like 2021 was going to go the same route with the very similar Larry being the best the MDR/CV could muster until Sam came in late to save the day.

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17 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

2004: (6 H strikes/3 MHs/Charley)

That was a year I'll never forget. Charlie, Francis, and Jeanne all had impact in the Tampa Bay area, and actually within a short period. Preparing, anticipating, experiencing, clean up, and weeks without power for many of us combined with those storms. Seems like even later in the season we were impacted on some level as well.

Charlie was not worst where I lived. But took out power and trees were down all over the place. But it passed during the daytime and I watched from my porch as shudders bounced down the street and shingles flew off of roofs across the street. Roof vents were also flying by like metal pelicans during the worst. It was not Cat 3, or even 2 where we were, but the wind was strong and consistent, the clouds blowing past, when it rained it was sideways, very awesome to watch. Jeanne was worse, but it was 3:00 am in the total dark with no power at the peak, so all we could do was see the damage after the sun came up. The sound was impressive though.

 

 

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NCEP's EWP MJO forecast worked for me all season, until mid-late September when it suggested a brief inactive phase and then after about 5 October an active Caribbean.  It isn't perfect, but newest suggests mid-month things get active again.

 

Edit to add:  this would mean the EWP forecast from last week was wrong as well, as it kept the unfavorable phase until almost the end of October.

 

But things might get active again around mid-October

CaptureEWP.PNG

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6 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

NCEP's EWP MJO forecast worked for me all season, until mid-late September when it suggested a brief inactive phase and then after about 5 October an active Caribbean.  It isn't perfect, but newest suggests mid-month things get active again.

 

Edit to add:  this would mean the EWP forecast from last week was wrong as well, as it kept the unfavorable phase until almost the end of October.

 

But things might get active again around mid-October

CaptureEWP.PNG

Not surprising with the secondary peak. I would

Be shocked if we do not see another major somewhere in the Caribbean before the end of the season  

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It was rather boring besides Ida 

2021 had its moments.

I thought August would be dead and October hopping. I was wrong. November is never a "give up" in Florida, but not complaining at all. It has been comfortable around Tampa Bay this week, even had a good solid rain a few days ago. Miss tracking the storms, but kind of nice to relax and chill in October. Seems that has not been the norm the past few years...

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I think it was a very memorable season (and it's still ongoing). Hurricane Ida will likely be the "storm of the year". 2017 is the most recent "extreme" year to me. When you have two simultaneous 150 mph hurricanes threatening land (Irma and Jose), then another Cat 4 slamming TX, then another Cat 4 slamming Puerto Rico....that season really joined the 2004/2005 group in my opinion. 

So I'm a 2004/2005/2017 snob. I really think the explosive August Cat 4s like Charley and Harvey and those long-tracked violent tropical Cape Verde beasts like Ivan and Irma do it for me. 

I actually think that one thing that may make the weenies feel the season wasn't "crazy" enough are the Louisiana strikes. The media could care less about Hurricanes Laura, Delta and Zeta last year. They quickly dropped Ida from the headlines until New England flooded.

Who remembers Hurricane Frances Cat-2 strike in Florida? Me too. I meet people to this day here in the Midwest who remember Frances 2004. Now tell me, who remembers Hurricane Delta's Cat 2 landfall in Creole, Louisiana just last year? Or Hurricane Laura's impact on Holly Beach?

The media and the weenies probably want Louisiana to stop hogging the storms.

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1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

18z GEFS has an impressive swath of strong storms heading up through the Bahamas/Florida

Untitled.jpg

The period in and around 10/17-21 has been quite active in terms of frequency on and near south Florida/Bahamas based on past seasons. It is essentially the final peak period for that area for the season. Will there be another for around that period? The 12Z GEFS was also pretty active. Perhaps this one isn’t a fake like the one earlier. Let’s see if future GEFS runs persist with this activity.

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