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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just wondering something.. as bad as the euro has performed over the last year plus.. why does it have to be right with this one? When was the last storm it got right? Maybe it is this time. But when it’s by itself.. it’s tough to use it anymore 

It's 3 days out and all the models agree. 

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A dynamic storm should perform more like the others than Euro solution. But maybe it’s right this time. I just find it crazy that so many buy it over and over 

The GFS and NAM look too cold near the low. The real accumulation is more in the firehose. If that moves SE than yeah that will push higher totals SE too.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Out of the 12z suite, NAM was further SE with the upper low....GFS is a little north and the Euro is west of the GFS. They aren't huge differences but they matter for exactly where the bigger snows might fall.

Welcome to marginality, huh -

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This is just a weird week ...

I mean, looking at sat loops and various shit ...we are still embedded in the under carriage west motion under -NAO influence... and we're 65 to 69 with still air and sun here that feels warm really.. So what?  well...it's April 13 ... when is a long fetch off the N. Atlantic while hosing out of a -NAO like normally 68 partly sunny.

Yet in two days 30 F correction into stuff of dreams -   ...like, really?

I guess.

By the way, the buds popped here... really just the last two nights.  Sugar maples flushing flowerettes. These are the first canopy species to go - though some Elm too.   Lawn's looking more green with some individual blades sticking up.   Good time to cake 'em in damage

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53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is just a weird week ...

I mean, looking at sat loops and various shit ...we are still embedded in the under carriage west motion under -NAO influence... and we're 65 to 69 with still air and sun here that feels warm really.. So what?  well...it's April 13 ... when is a long fetch off the N. Atlantic while hosing out of a -NAO like normally 68 partly sunny.

Yet in two days 30 F correction into stuff of dreams -   ...like, really?

I guess.

By the way, the buds popped here... really just the last two nights.  Sugar maples flushing flowerettes. These are the first canopy species to go - though some Elm too.   Lawn's looking more green with some individual blades sticking up.   Good time to cake 'em in damage

That’s why we mentioned last week to proceed with caution on a wet cold week. We mentioned there’d be nice sunny days too. So far most places this week saw .05 or less with 60’s today and 70 tomorrow. And yes, let’s cake the bud laden and newly leafed out trees in heavy wet snow and tear down whatever we can before another beautiful sunny mild weekend . What a warm spring second only to 2012.

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BTV has not gone big:

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

 

Their PM discussion is a bit more bullish:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Quote

By Thursday evening, a secondary coastal low is expected to develop near the Mid-Atlantic Coast and then track northeastward into southern New England. This will cause the axis of precipitation to pivot as the coastal low deepens during the overnight hours, allowing precipitation to start advancing into northern/eastern Vermont. In addition, the heaviest precip will become concentrated along the eastern slopes of the southern and central Green Mountains. Cooling overnight temperatures paired with dynamical cooling and weak cold air advection will cause rain to transition to snow, mainly above 1000 feet. Still, broad valley locations could see a mix of rain and snow early Friday morning. Precipitation will continue throughout the day on Friday before coming to an end late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Overall, liquid precipitation totals will be close to an inch across southern Vermont, 0.50 to 0.75 inches across northern New York and central Vermont, and less than 0.50 inches across northern Vermont. Snow accumulation will be limited to locations above 1000 ft with 4 to 8 inches possible. Isolated power outages are possible within these regions.

 

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26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s why we mentioned last week to proceed with caution on a wet cold week. We mentioned there’d be nice sunny days too. So far most places this week saw .05 or less with 60’s today and 70 tomorrow. And yes, let’s cake the bud laden and newly leafed out trees in heavy wet snow and tear down whatever we can before another beautiful sunny mild weekend . What a warm spring second only to 2012.

Leafed out?

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