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Torch Tiger

April 2021 Discussion

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10 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

No leaves on the oaks here. Buds appearing. Buds and small leaves on the maples and smaller trees. 

Same here obviously. 

And this is why day time temps alone don’t tell the tale. Many cold nights, low dews. CP air masses ruled the month—no subtropical air in our region. The entire month has had climo more like April 1–and the vegetation is saying the same.

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Depending on the species of Oak, they leafed out in the warmth the last 2 days. The pin and Red oaks are last.. white Oaks are out. Maples all out , birch etc. Was a beautiful, mild month overall with a cool shot or two mixed in. Vegetation everywhere in the 6 state region is 10 days ahead of schedule. I noticed even Mitch said the black flies are out up there and he said that’s 10-14 days early.  We really lucked out compared to recent years

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I noticed I’m way ahead of pretty much every place surrounding me. We take. 

The valley is quite a bit ahead of here . It’s basically a full leaf out. I couldn’t believe it . The last 2 days here things exploded 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The valley is quite a bit ahead of here . It’s basically a full leaf out. I couldn’t believe it . The last 2 days here things exploded 

I don’t know what species I have, but it’s way ahead of every place around me. I drove to Plymouth yesterday to renew my license and not much movement there in the oaks. The Norway’s are almost fully leafed out here. Maybe a few more days. I’m also way ahead of last year. 

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Good healthy 2/3rds of an inch of rain past 24 hours.  Nice steady soaking.  Now we take a break before another round of 0.50-1.00 moves in this evening and tonight.

We are going to explode green after these couple rainy days.  Can already see it in the fields and grass, the color has stepped up to a full spring green.  Need leaves though.  The buds look like they may want to go soon.  

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty interesting. The indicies don’t always tell the tale of end results. Other than a day or .. this has been a great month with many warm days.. and even a snowstorm mixed in

Exactly...this is why structure and placement of the anomalies are way more important than an index itself. That's why you can't just make a (medium-long range) forecast just based on the state of an index or ENSO alone. For example, here is a composite of DJF temperature anomalies for La Nina's. The last image below gives you an "average" of them all...but sometimes going just based on average can be extremely misleading. 

1777350745_1949-1950to2000-2001.thumb.png.399b61a5a2266b43431d76f77fa65a30.png401897763_2005-2006topresent.thumb.png.a540a9d3e264ebd2245c3ea1de765836.png

 

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Good healthy 2/3rds of an inch of rain past 24 hours.  Nice steady soaking.  Now we take a break before another round of 0.50-1.00 moves in this evening and tonight.

We are going to explode green after these couple rainy days.  Can already see it in the fields and grass, the color has stepped up to a full spring green.  Need leaves though.  The buds look like they may want to go soon.  

Really noticed the greening this morning.  I had to drop  my son off at school and then stop down at the vets to pick up some tick stuff for the dog and the lawns really seemed to accelerate the green up process, even since yesterday.  The misery mist that was falling does tend to make stuff look extra lush though.

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Damn hope modeling is way wrong next week.  Another high wind warning coming Friday as well. Definitely not what we want for chill. Bring back yesterday please 

May see scattered power outages tomorrow...pretty long duration period of high winds too. 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

60 Saturday afternoon 

And? :lol:  Be interesting if some mangled flakes are flying around in the high ground in the morning.

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Actually looks like there could be some pretty intense snow squalls tomorrow night...actually wouldn't even be surprised to see some areas of accumulation possible (Green Mountains into the Berkshires, ORH hills, Hills of CT). Could even see some decent LES across parts of NY. Maybe thunder too...pretty unstable aloft

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32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

:stein:3xPtRNv.jpg

That drought has been locked in those areas it seems for years. From New Haven down through SW CT has never been remotely near any drought condition in a long time. I'm at almost 5 inches of rain in the last 30 days. 

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1 minute ago, BrianW said:

That drought has been locked in those areas it seems for years. From New Haven down through SW CT has never been remotely near any drought condition in a long time. I'm at almost 5 inches of rain in the last 30 days. 

You guys had all that snow and high qpf. Last summer you guys had all those t storms. While rest of area much more hit/ miss

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17 hours ago, tamarack said:

On April 16-18 BDL had highs of 90/95/92.   26 years earlier April 17-19 had 92/95/96.  I think those are the only April heat waves there.

Uh... yeeeeah - I wasn't referring to a heat context ?

I may not have my date right - Maybe it was 2001... But, I was speaking in deference to a cold coastal on May 18 that brought noodles and cat paws to Waltham, at 39 F in sheets/wind...while 1.5" of slushy car top accumulations to the Worcester area. 

At the time of Jerry and my's exchange, yesterday, ...the GFS had just such a look to it's D10 charts.  Tongue-in-cheek to mention, but he was surmising that with yesterday's appeal ... it was as though we had really turned a seasonal change, caboosing it with 'though we can't be certain'

 

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32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Question on something. From my understanding I think MOS doesn't work record sky cover above like 12,000 feet. Does NBM do so? 

I've gotten this distinct impression the vaster overwhelming number of times, too yeah.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I've gotten this distinct impression the vaster overwhelming number of times, yeah.

MOS sucks...it's a complete piece of garbage. I have been using NBM more and even that seems to be kinda trash. Don't get me wrong...MOS/NBM are very good in some areas and at some locations but it's trash...particularly across the center of the country and the Northeast...especially in certain pattern types. I know MOS does not handle anomalous patterns well or seasons of transition but it's a complete embarrassment. I have no clue how some can just rip/read MOS and be happy at the end of the day.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Uh... yeeeeah - I wasn't referring to a heat context ?

I may not have my date right - Maybe it was 2001... But, I was speaking in deference to a cold coastal on May 18 that brought noodles and cat paws to Waltham, at 39 F in sheets/wind...while 1.5" of slushy car top accumulations to the Worcester area. 

At the time of Jerry and my's exchange, yesterday, ...the GFS had just such a look to it's D10 charts.  Tongue-in-cheek to mention, but he was surmising that with yesterday's appeal ... it was as though we had really turned a seasonal change, caboosing it with 'though we can't be certain'

 

My bad - I was thinking April not May, and 2002 was the correct year for mid-May snow - 18th in SNE, 13th around here.  I think IZG hit 90 early that month then got 2" SN a week or so later.

Edit:  0.09" from the first wave, trying to keep the house from washing away.

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