bluewave Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 Quick wavelength changes coming up with the very strong MJO and typhoon recurve. Looks like we finally get our April 80° potential on Wednesday. But a near record amplitude MJO 8 for April doesn’t allow it to lock in for long. So it’s followed by a backdoor cold front and cooler on Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: Quick wavelength changes coming up with the very strong MJO and typhoon recurve. Looks like we finally get our April 80° potential on Wednesday. But a near record amplitude MJO 8 for April doesn’t allow it to lock in for long. So it’s followed by a backdoor cold front and cooler on Thursday. Yeah and the BDCF could trend even stronger in the coming days. Models still picking up on it. We could see mid 80s flip to mid 50s from Wed to Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 68° Tomorrow will cloudy and rainy. A general 0.50”-1.50” rainfall is likely across the region. The closing days of April could feature much above normal temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 12z NAM with very little rain tomorrow especially north of NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: 12z NAM with very little rain tomorrow especially north of NYC Way different compared to 6z. A rainy Sunday would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Way different compared to 6z. A rainy Sunday would be nice 3k is wetter with .50 for everyone but it does end the precip a bit earlier like 10-11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 The system is moving pretty quickly. So the best chance for rain will be tonight into early Sunday. Looks like the afternoon could turn out nice with breaks of sun and 60s. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 4/24/2021 0600 UTC DT /APR 24 /APR 25 /APR 26 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N 71 51 63 41 65 TMP 53 64 68 68 64 58 54 53 54 54 59 61 56 53 48 43 46 55 62 59 47 DPT 36 32 30 31 33 36 40 42 44 44 43 38 34 33 30 26 24 19 17 19 25 CLD SC FW SC BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK FW CL CL CL CL FW CL FW CL WDR 26 27 23 20 22 18 18 05 02 36 31 31 30 31 29 29 30 31 30 30 30 WSP 05 07 10 11 09 05 03 05 09 12 14 17 19 19 15 14 17 17 18 18 04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 Under bright sunshine, the temperature soared into the lower 70s in New York City. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden: 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 6 hours ago, Brian5671 said: 12z NAM with very little rain tomorrow especially north of NYC To me that's hinting at another south and east storm. Based on this I have a feeling I'll stay mostly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 72 today. Was nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Under bright sunshine, the temperature soared into the lower 70s in New York City. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden: Lovely. I've only ever been for the yearly holiday train show. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 24, 2021 Share Posted April 24, 2021 40 minutes ago, A Moonlit Sky said: Lovely. I've only ever been for the yearly holiday train show. Thank you for the kind words. A lot is currently in bloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Overnight and tomorrow morning, a storm will bring rain to the region. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely from Philadelphia to New York City with some locally higher amounts. Lesser amounts are likely north of New York City. Clouds will likely begin to break during the afternoon. The day could end with some sunshine. Monday will be fair but cool. It will become noticeably warmer on Tuesday. April will likely close with much above normal temperatures. The guidance has now moved into good agreement that the month will close with highs generally in the 70s. The potential for an 80° reading as far north as New York City exists. Tuesday and Wednesday could be the warmest days in a region stretching from the Great Lakes area to the Northeast. This outcome would be consistent with the MJO's having moved through Phase 6 at a very high amplitude during the April 1-15 period. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. The MJO's ongoing passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is consistent with an outcome that typically yields 1-2 80° days. Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was -1.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.000 today. On April 22 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.762 (RMM). The April 21-adjusted amplitude was 2.048 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.8° (1.8° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 13 hours ago, Brian5671 said: 12z NAM with very little rain tomorrow especially north of NYC 0z Nam a lot rainier especially city south. Looks like north trend won out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: 0z Nam a lot rainier especially city south. Looks like north trend won out. And radar looks pretty good. Heavier echoes are making it pretty far north in eastern PA. Looks like it's gonna be a good half inch to three quarters of an inch soaking for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 The last 6 days of April are averaging 59degs.(50/68) or +2.0. Month to date is 53.4[+1.4]. April should end at 54.5[+1.5]. After the April 28/29 T spike, the next spikes look to be May 04/05 and May 09/10-----then a long wait to May 21 for another one? Rain today of about 0.60". 50%(95%RH) here at 6am, light rain. 53* by Noon and brightening skies. 55* at 1pm. Made it to 65* around 6pm, with sunny breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Looks like .47 so far in NYC. Matches the spring theme of mostly light to moderate events. While this spring is on the drier side of recent years, it’s still wetter than 2016 was. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Apr 25 Missing Count 2021-04-25 5.88 0 2020-04-25 7.33 0 2019-04-25 7.26 0 2018-04-25 10.62 0 2017-04-25 8.69 0 2016-04-25 2.49 0 2015-04-25 6.80 0 2014-04-25 5.60 0 2013-04-25 4.17 0 2012-04-25 4.45 0 2011-04-25 11.23 0 2010-04-25 12.94 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Morning thoughts... Rain will end later this morning or early this afternoon. Clouds could break late in the day. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 65° Tomorrow sunny but somewhat cooler than normal. A warmup will follow. The closing days of April could feature much above normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Worst of the rain was over shortly after 3am this morning so few had to deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Picked up 0.49" of rain for the day. Current temp 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 about a half inch here-NAM was too dry for us-EURO had the best #'s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 .25. It has been windy all morning so the pavement is already dry and the grass/yard will be soon too. 51/47/NE5/OVC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 .15 total 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Glad we got our decent half inch soaking. It was bone dry so we really needed it. Next chance of rain looks to be thursday, although not a significant event. Right now is looks like showers and maybe around a quarter of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Rain definitely came in more north than most all models had... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 This month is another example of the coldest departures focused around the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 9 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like .47 so far in NYC. Matches the spring theme of mostly light to moderate events. While this spring is on the drier side of recent years, it’s still wetter than 2016 was. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Precipitation Mar 1 to Apr 25 Missing Count 2021-04-25 5.88 0 2020-04-25 7.33 0 2019-04-25 7.26 0 2018-04-25 10.62 0 2017-04-25 8.69 0 2016-04-25 2.49 0 2015-04-25 6.80 0 2014-04-25 5.60 0 2013-04-25 4.17 0 2012-04-25 4.45 0 2011-04-25 11.23 0 2010-04-25 12.94 0 And NYC ended up with a .59 total. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Ended up being a decent day after the rain. Current temp 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 Ended up with .60 “ in the rain bucket here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 NYC Spring temperature and precipitation...max and ave temperature from 3/1 to 5/31... year.....ave temp....precip"....max temp......snowfall 3/1 to end... 1869..........47.2......10.15......84..........................0.8" 1870..........48.6......10.27......86...……..……….12.1" 1871..........52.2......12.61......92...………………..2.1" 1872..........47.1........8.71......89...………………..5.1" 1873..........47.1........9.94......87...………………..0.4" 1874..........45.7......13.13......90...………………….T 1875..........45.8........7.99......86...………………28.8" 1876..........47.2......14.88......87...………………..3.8" 1877..........47.7........9.24......88...………………..6.5" 1878..........52.3........8.43......84...………………….0 1879..........50.6........9.76......86...………………12.8" 1880..........51.5........8.18......96...……..………..12.3" 1881..........48.4........9.96......93...……...……….11.1" 1882..........48.2........8.37......80...………………..3.3" 1883..........47.0........8.03......82...……………….20.6" 1884..........48.5......11.18......86...………………...2.3" 1885..........46.6........4.95......87...………………...4.1" 1886..........50.2......12.08......86...………………...2.0" 1887..........47.5........6.20......87...………………...7.0" 1888..........44.7......13.13......84...……………….22.3" 1889..........51.5......11.00......91...……………….,,4,0" 1890..........48.3......10.80......81...……………….17.3" 1891..........47.8........8.44......82...………………...2.1" 1892..........47.4........9.73......81...……………….13.0" 1893..........46.7......13.50......85...………………...6.6" 1894..........51.0........7.27......85...………………...1.0" 1895..........49.3........7.59......96...………………...4.0" 1896..........50.6........9.06......92...……………….33.5" 1897..........50.9......10.83......81...………………...3.3" 1898..........50.6......12.75......86...………………...4.5" 1899..........49.9........8.60......88...………………...4.8" 1900..........47.7........9.23......90...………………...5.8" 1901..........47.9......18.52......85...…………………..T 1902..........51.3........9.22......86...………………...6.5" 1903..........54.2........7.97......89...…………………..0 1904..........48.8........9.25......89...………………...5.4" 1905..........50.6........6.60......81...………………...1.8" 1906..........50.1......16.47......90...……………….11.5" 1907..........48.5......11.08......85...……………….19.1" 1908..........52.3......13.16......88...………………...3.5" 1909..........49.1......11.17......83...………………...4.3" 1910..........53.0........7.51......82...………………...1.3" 1911..........48.7........8.12......86...………………...4.0" 1912..........50.1......16.63......89...………………...4.5" 1913..........52.7......15.69......89...………………...2.8" 1914..........49.6......10.43......95...……………….21.5" 1915..........50.1........7.10......92...……………….17.9" 1916..........47.4......11.33......81...……………….28.8" 1917..........47.3......11.00......84...……………….18.2" 1918..........52.7......11.15......91...………………...3.2" 1919..........51.8......12.99......92...………………...2.7" 1920..........48.9......13.26......82...………………...5.3" 1921..........55.2......10.19......89...………………...0.1" 1922..........52.4......11.30......86...………………...3.9" 1923..........49.0........8.37......86...………………...8.1" 1924..........48.5......14.47......75...……………….11.6" 1925..........51.9........9.43......91...…………………..T 1926..........47.7........6.81......83...………………...1.2" 1927..........50.2........8.95......90...………………...0.3" 1928..........48.9........9.73......80...………………...5.7" 1929..........52.6......14.09......93...………………...0.2" 1930..........50.8........7.96......91...…………………..T 1931..........51.0......13.00......93...………………..1.8" 1932..........49.4......11.11......90...………………..0.6" 1933..........51.1......16.46......90...…………….….4.8" 1934..........50.4......13.11......90...………………..8.6" 1935..........51.0........5.06......89...………………..2.0" 1936..........52.5......11.72......92...………………..1.5" 1937..........50.4......10.90......93...………………..2.5" 1938..........52.9........8.96......89...………………..7.1" 1939..........51.1........9.93......96...………………..7.0" 1940..........47.5......17.80......83...………………..7.1" 1941..........52.5........7.70......96...………………19.2" 1942..........54.0........8.78......92...………………..2.7" 1943..........49.6......10.44......89...………………..7.1" 1944..........51.2......11.91......92...………………11.3" 1945..........55.3......11.23......86...………………...T 1946..........54.0......11.44......87...………………...T 1947..........49.4......11.63......86...………………..6.1" 1948..........51.1......14.35......87...………………..4.7" 1949..........53.3........9.49......92...………………..4.2" 1950..........47.9........7.05......82...………………..3.3" 1951..........52.6......12.99......90...………………..2.7" 1952..........52.0......13.83......83...………………..7.4" 1953..........53.6......18.31......90...………………..0.9" 1954..........51.7........9.05......85...………………..0.4" 1955..........53.5........8.32......90...………………..3.6" 1956..........48.1......10.01......89...……………....25.3" 1957..........52.7......10.17......87...………………..5.1" 1958..........50.8......12.58......82...………………16.1" 1959..........53.4........7.01......94...………………..7.3" 1960..........50.0........8.98......87...……………...18.5" 1961..........50.1......12.91......85...………………..1.2" 1962..........53.6........7.23......99...………………..0.2" 1963..........52.8........7.04......86...………………..2.8" 1964..........52.7........8.23......94...………………..6.0" 1965..........52.3........6.97......94...………………..4.0" 1966..........51.3........7.89......85...………………….T 1967..........47.5......13.50......81...……………...17.4" 1968..........52.6......14.67......82...………………..6.1" 1969..........53.8......10.39......97...………………..5.6" 1970..........51.6......11.00......93...………………..4.0" 1971..........50.8......10.99......85...………………..1.7" 1972..........51.1......16.86......86...………………..2.3" 1973..........53.1......16.16......86...………………..0.2" 1974..........52.8......13.88......92...………………..3.5" 1975..........51.3........9.74......93...………………..0.3" 1976..........53.2......10.56......96...………………..4.4" 1977..........55.2......12.87......92...………………..0.6" 1978..........50.7......14.26......90...………………..6.8" 1979..........54.9......14.67......94...………………….T 1980..........53.8......21.00......90...………………..4.6" 1981..........54.4........8.17......87...………………..8.6" 1982..........52.4......10.66......84...……………...10.3" 1983..........52.2......29.15......85...………………..0.8" 1984..........50.1......22.66......85...……………...11.9" 1985..........55.5........9.04......88...………………..0.2" 1986..........55.2........7.07......94...………………….T 1987..........54.1......12.28......97...………………..1.9" 1988..........52.5........9.57......91...………………….T 1989..........52.2......19.43......86...………………..2.5" 1990..........52.9......17.86......91...………………..3.7" 1991..........56.3......11.95......93...………………..0.2" 1992..........50.5........9.86......93...………………..9.4" 1993..........52.9......12.48......92...……………...11.9" 1994..........52.7......13.01......91...………………..8.1" 1995..........52.9........6.39......87...………………….T 1996..........50.7......12.78......96...……………...13.9" 1997..........51.0......11.09......83...………………..1.7" 1998..........54.6......19.07......87...………………..5.0" 1999..........53.0........9.98......89...………………..4.5" 2000..........53.9......11.34......93...………………..1.6" 2001..........52.5......11.32......92...………………..3.8" 2002..........53.6......10.63......96...………………….T 2003..........50.5......11.20......88...………………..7.5" 2004..........54.1......12.87......87...………………..4.8" 2005..........51.1......11.18......87...………………..6.9" 2006..........54.0......10.98......88...………………..1.4" 2007..........51.0......20.28......91...………………..6.0" 2008..........52.5......10.86......84...………………….T 2009..........53.1......11.61......92...………………..8.3" 2010..........57.1......16.69......92...………………….T 2011..........53.7......16.65......89...………………..1.0" 2012..........56.9........9.90......89............…………...0 2013..........52.0......12.21......90...………………..7.3" 2014..........51.3......15.89......89...………………..0.1" 2015..........53.6........8.73......88...……………...18.6" 2016..........55.0........7.96......92...………………..0.9" 2017..........52.5......15.47......92...………………..9.7" 2018..........52.2......14.48......92...……………...17.1" 2019...……53.1......15.24…..86..……………….10.4" 2020...…...52.9...…..8.92".....86......…...………….T 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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