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Severe Event March 25th 2021


Bob's Burgers
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4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is it safe to presume any tornado watches issued today will come with the PDS label? 

At this point we should be focused more on weather outcomes (e.g., strong/violent long tracked tornadoes) than SPC forecast content.  Whether or not watches are PDS, or whether or not spc issues a 45% tornado probability, is somewhat irrelevant at this point.  These things have no bearing on what will happen.

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2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

The veering of the surface winds in behind the confluence axis in E MS does give me some pause about the early phase of the event. May take some time to respond to pressure falls associated with the deepening low.

I feel like some of this is just noise related to the ongoing effects of the scattered convection this morning? Looks like most obs in the true warm-sector are either southerly or slightly southeasterly.

Something to watch, for sure.

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Just now, ALweather said:

Still seems like a lot of cloud cover to burn through in Central Alabama right now. Can't help but wonder if we'll see a repeat of last week where the threat starts to really scale back the closer we get to it. 

main action is supposed to be well to our west, where it's clearing out.  I wouldn't be surprised if we saw less action this week than last week in central Al. but the area to our west is virtually guaranteed to see a lot more.

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6 minutes ago, ALweather said:

Still seems like a lot of cloud cover to burn through in Central Alabama right now. Can't help but wonder if we'll see a repeat of last week where the threat starts to really scale back the closer we get to it. 

I think something to keep in mind, is that the volatile environment that's expected to occur was forecasted to materialize with *full* cloud cover from pretty much every model I saw. The fact that there are still clouds at this time doesn't mean the threat is any lower than it was before. Of course, maybe at this time tomorrow we'll be talking about something that ended up limiting the threat (which I honestly hope happens). Also, as pointed out just above, the highest threat appears to be slightly north/west of Central Alabama anyways (which, again, doesn't mean the area is out of the woods right now). Even while mentioning that, there is always the possibility that the threat gets shifted a little south than what's currently forecasted. 

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I think something to keep in mind, is that the volatile environment that's expected to occur was forecasted to materialize with *full* cloud cover from pretty much every model I saw. The fact that there are still clouds at this time doesn't mean the threat is any lower than it was before. Of course, maybe at this time tomorrow we'll be talking about something that ended up limiting the threat (which I honestly hope happens). Also, as pointed out just above, the highest threat appears to be slightly north/west of Central Alabama anyways (which, again, doesn't mean the area is out of the woods right now). Even while mentioning that, there is always the possibility that the threat gets shifted a little south than what's currently forecasted. 

MRX just updated and said the WAA will be so strong that it will overcome the cool boundary layer. They also said they expect clearing later on after lunch.


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