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Severe Event March 25th 2021


Bob's Burgers
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3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I wouldn’t downplay this as “just part of living in [that] area.” I don’t live in Alabama, but has Huntsville ever been under a watch of this magnitude outside of *that* day?

I don't know the level of the watch from history, but HSV has been hit at least 2x by F4s in the 1990s time frame [1989 and 1995].

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8 minutes ago, Air Traffic Control said:

I don't know the level of the watch from history, but HSV has been hit at least 2x by F4s in the 1990s time frame [1989 and 1995].

A quick glance shows the 1989 one killed 21 people and affirms my belief that an EF-4 hitting Huntsville would be “catastrophic.” Also don’t necessarily believe that something that hasn’t happened for over a quarter century and hopefully won’t for at least another quarter century is “just part of living in [any] area.”

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Just now, ALweather said:

Can't help but wonder how much of an effect all this cloud cover will have on the accuracy of this forecast. Last week it really seemed to keep things from forming and what did was pretty short-lived. The "high risk" from last week barely materialized.

Once again, this system is exponentially more dynamic than last weeks. And last week did end up verifying in the high risk area. There is plenty of clearing in the main expected initiation zone. Already extreme amounts of low level instability. I hope this busts as much as the next guy but these concerns are being tossed because of the real time observational data.  

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The mass of convection that is currently forming in southern MS is a fly in the ointment.  This looks similar to what the toned-down 00 UTC HRRR showed, and might pose a junkvection-like mechanism for preventing more widespread stabilization.

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1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

The mass of convection that is currently forming in southern MS is a fly in the ointment.  This looks similar to what the toned-down 00 UTC HRRR showed, and might pose a junkvection-like mechanism for preventing more widespread stabilization.

Yup that definitely could hinder things downstream.

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13 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

A quick glance shows the 1989 one killed 21 people and affirms my belief that an EF-4 hitting Huntsville would be “catastrophic.” Also don’t necessarily believe that something that hasn’t happened for over a quarter century and hopefully won’t for at least another quarter century is “just part of living in [any] area.”

You're misunderstanding my point... I'm not writing it off.  Quite the contrary... I'm saying that it is pretty normal for this area to have high amounts of tornados this time of year, many of them are very strong.  It's become the new tornado alley.  I'm simply saying, I'll be more surprised if we didn't have any tornados.  

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7 minutes ago, vman722 said:

Once again, this system is exponentially more dynamic than last weeks. And last week did end up verifying in the high risk area. There is plenty of clearing in the main expected initiation zone. Already extreme amounts of low level instability. I hope this busts as much as the next guy but these concerns are being tossed because of the real time observational data.  

I’m kinda curious why the storms aren’t spinning more. Srh of 400+ per mesoanalysis. Not surfaced based storms?

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3 minutes ago, bamabonners said:

You're misunderstanding my point... I'm not writing it off.  Quite the contrary... I'm saying that it is pretty normal for this area to have high amounts of tornados this time of year, many of them are very strong.  It's become the new tornado alley.  I'm guys in saying, I'm be more surprised if we didn't have any tornados.  

Ah, that makes more sense. I read it as “we have tornadoes all the time, so we’re used to it and that will help mitigate the effects if a violent tornado does run right through the middle of our city.” And I hope as much as the next guy that a violent tornado does NOT run through your city or any other town. Sorry for the misunderstanding. 

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11 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

The mass of convection that is currently forming in southern MS is a fly in the ointment.  This looks similar to what the toned-down 00 UTC HRRR showed, and might pose a junkvection-like mechanism for preventing more widespread stabilization.

Could be why the TOR risk was kept at 30%, just from a confidence standpoint. Again, *the SPC risk has no impact on the event itself*

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* Locations impacted include...
  Brent, Centreville, Moundville, Lake View, Brookwood, Coaling,
  Vance, Woodstock, West Blocton, Tannehill Ironworks State Park, Low
  Gap, Mertz, Mercedes Benz Of Alabama, Eoline, North Bibb, Maxwell,
  Hull, Hagler, Green Pond and Pearson

A car dealer makes the list of “locations impacted.” Don’t think I’ve seen that before.

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2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

* Locations impacted include...
  Brent, Centreville, Moundville, Lake View, Brookwood, Coaling,
  Vance, Woodstock, West Blocton, Tannehill Ironworks State Park, Low
  Gap, Mertz, Mercedes Benz Of Alabama, Eoline, North Bibb, Maxwell,
  Hull, Hagler, Green Pond and Pearson

A car dealer makes the list of “locations impacted.” Don’t think I’ve seen that before.

nah, that's the Mecedes Benz automotive plant.  It's a huge complex, they even have a dedicated exit from the interstate

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6 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

whelp.....I'm directly in the bullseye of the only tornado warned storm right now, 50 miles away.  Let's hope it isn't as long tracked as we think..... I may just get in my car and hit the interstate if this thing doesn't lift before getting here.

Stay safe man! 

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