jpeters3 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 00z HRRR is a touch more tame than the 18z run was... But still shows many discrete/semi-discrete supercells across AL and MS during the afternoon and evening -- toward evening it really starts to light up KY/TN with a broken line of what I would assume would be a mixed-bag of supercells and clusters, given the forecast parameter space across both these area i'm not exactly sure it is going to matter how "discrete" convection can stay. I actually think it might make a huge difference. The HRRR is blowing a big hole in the low-level instability beneath the region of widespread convection, which is going to put a tamper on discrete updrafts. Furthermore, this sort of convective evolution will limit destabilization further north. While I feel confident that there will be tornadoes somewhere, the 00 UTC HRRR scenario is a show stopper in terms of a historic outbreak. Lets hope this pans out. Given that this earlier convective blowup is consistent with the euro and some of the other CAMS, i'm inclined to believe it moreso than the crazy runs earlier today. It's also (for the most part) more in line with how these events typically evolve in the SEUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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