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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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An ill-timed MCV/MCS moving through the TA at 18z really does a number on the plume of steeper lapse rates sunday. Should provide a tornado threat in its own right but cant help but think this particular setup is actually better off without the MCV. Let the synoptics do the work.
 
 
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With tomorrow's axis of the greatest 'nado threat basically running right through the heart of the subforum west to east, I am expecting several jaw-dropping pics and videos from multiple posters here tomorrow night.

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5 hours ago, hlcater said:
An ill-timed MCV/MCS moving through the TA at 18z really does a number on the plume of steeper lapse rates sunday. Should provide a tornado threat in its own right but cant help but think this particular setup is actually better off without the MCV. Let the synoptics do the work.

06Z NAM says move over Claudette.

136884214_ScreenShot2021-06-19at8_50_45AM.thumb.png.c0ab81f455bcdfd1c041bba1d37e3fab.png

Obviously overdone, but definitely think you're right about creating its own threats, especially on its SE/S/SW flank where shear is enhanced and the effective warm front will reside.

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An ill-timed MCV/MCS moving through the TA at 18z really does a number on the plume of steeper lapse rates sunday. Should provide a tornado threat in its own right but cant help but think this particular setup is actually better off without the MCV. Let the synoptics do the work.    

It definitely has more potential with the MCV involved.


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13 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Would currently lean towards the southern edge of the 50/70% contours for the higher tornado and wind risk tomorrow, minus the lake influence in Alek's backyard, of course. Should be some 1-2"+ rainfall amounts in areas that need it most, too.

1759053777_ScreenShot2021-06-19at11_10_12AM.thumb.png.f874f120cf15cb5548e20465f4519090.png

Was thinking the same thing.  Whole area has a threat but I'd give some favor to the area around I-88/south.

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1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Wondering if they're gonna go Enhanced or wait til tomorrow 

Well we have our answer, ENH out for 30% unhatched wind stretching from SE IA to N IN/SW lwr. MI.

Tornado outlook remains a fairly large 5% area, in reality the majority of it will probably see no tornadoes while there is a focused tornado threat near the track of the MCV. The broad zone is just to account for margin of error.

My chasing range will be limited since I will be visiting my parents for Father's Day.

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3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


It definitely has more potential with the MCV involved.


.

I’m not sure that it does honestly. As a general rule yea I think you’d be right, but in this instance I’m not so sure. The MCV moves through at 18-20z depending on the model and almost certainly has a tornado threat associated with it. The issue comes with wake subsidence and the veering of the flow that happens behind it. Despite the late transit time, recovery back on the front in Iowa looks almost assured, yet the models that don’t have the MCV have far more backed low level flow than those that do. Seeing as there’s a 35-45kt LLJ in place already, I’m not sure how much help the MCV is actually giving, especially at the cost of veered flow on the primary boundary. Not to mention lapse rates are far steeper to the west than they are invof MCV. 

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42 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I’m not sure that it does honestly. As a general rule yea I think you’d be right, but in this instance I’m not so sure. The MCV moves through at 18-20z depending on the model and almost certainly has a tornado threat associated with it. The issue comes with wake subsidence and the veering of the flow that happens behind it. Despite the late transit time, recovery back on the front in Iowa looks almost assured, yet the models that don’t have the MCV have far more backed low level flow than those that do. Seeing as there’s a 35-45kt LLJ in place already, I’m not sure how much help the MCV is actually giving, especially at the cost of veered flow on the primary boundary. Not to mention lapse rates are far steeper to the west than they are invof MCV. 

MCV interacting with the warm front is easily better than just relying on the cold front. Guidance that has the MCV focused threat (Which is just about all guidance), does have a more back low level flow, in addition to a much stronger flow aloft (850/700/500). Soundings on guidance that have the MCV focused threat also look much better than those that do not.

Additionally, the threat post MCV threat would still be quality, given you'd likely be dealing with a cold front and OFB intersection across E IA into N IL later.

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40 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

MCV interacting with the warm front is easily better than just relying on the cold front. Guidance that has the MCV focused threat (Which is just about all guidance), does have a more back low level flow, in addition to a much stronger flow aloft (850/700/500). Soundings on guidance that have the MCV focused threat also look much better than those that do not.

Additionally, the threat post MCV threat would still be quality, given you'd likely be dealing with a cold front and OFB intersection across E IA into N IL later.

At face value, I think the stuff back on the cold front probably ends up being a mixed mode conglomeration of giant hailers while the tornadoes are on the MCV.

 

 

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I doubt we even see a passing shower. All of those flash flood watches for Central Ohio yesterday and we got less than a quarter inch of gentle showers. Glad I have kept my plants nice and watered-can't depend on any rain in this rain/storm shadow area I live in. I did hear a bit of distant thunder last night to the southwest-where some lucky people did get inches of rain. Once the storms pass Dayton they collapse like they are at the end of a marathon or duck up north or south. Sorry for the rant. I am sure somewhere there will be severe weather and some good soaking rains-probably north and west and south and west and south and east and north and east of here again.

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A mesocyclone embedded in a messy QLCS with hail potential is ugly for chasing.  If there are discrete supercells somewhere ahead of the line it might be okay.  I'd think there will be better supercell structure potential farther west, even if no tornadoes.  I just don't know far southwest the secondary outbreak will be.  Having to go all the way to south central Iowa from GRR will be a taxing.  At least the days are long.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
425 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2021 /325 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2021/

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 06/18/2021 TORNADO EVENT...

.OVERVIEW...

.JAY TORNADO JUNE 18 2021...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ON JUNE 18TH. THIS STORM QUICKLY INTENSIFIED WITHIN A
VERY UNSTABLE, SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND BECAME SUPERCELLULAR AS IT
TURNED RIGHT INTO NORTHEAST JAY COUNTY. A TORNADO SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPED
APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRYANT INDIANA AROUND 350 PM 
EDT AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED TO EF2 CATEGORY AS THE TORNADO 
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST, DAMAGING OR DESTROYING SEVERAL RURAL 
HOMES AND FARMSTEADS AND FELLED A 100FT COMMUNICATIONS TOWER. THE 
TORNADO THEN WEAKENED BRIEFLY AS THE PARENT STORM TURNED HARD 
RIGHT AND REINTENSIFIED INTO A MULTI-VORTEX, 500 YARD WIDE EF2 
TORNADO AS IT TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, HITTING SEVERAL MORE 
FARMSTEADS WITH DAMAGED HOMES AND DESTROYED FARM BUILDINGS AND 
KILLING SEVERAL CATTLE. THE PARENT STORM AND TORNADO BOTH WEAKENED
THEREAFTER WITH THE TORNADO FINALLY LIFTING/DISSIPATING IN AN 
OPEN FIELD APPROXIMATELY 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRYANT INDIANA.


RATING:                 EF2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    130 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  5.2338 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   500.0 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE:             06/18/2021
START TIME:             03:50 PM EDT
START LOCATION:         1 NW WESTCHESTER / JAY COUNTY / IN
START LAT/LON:          40.5177 / -84.9085

END DATE:               06/18/2021
END TIME:               04:07 PM EDT
END LOCATION:           2 NNE BELLFOUNTAIN / JAY COUNTY / IN
END LAT/LON:            40.4645 / -84.848
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Quote
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1020 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2021

...EF2 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR FORT RECOVERY IN MERCER COUNTY OHIO 
ON JUNE 18, 2021...

LOCATION...NEAR FORT RECOVERY IN MERCER COUNTY OHIO 
DATE...JUNE 18, 2021 
ESTIMATED STARTING TIME...4:12 PM EDT 
ESTIMATED ENDING TIME...4:25 PM EDT 
MAXIMUM EF- SCALE RATING...EF2 
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...115 MPH 
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...200 YARDS 
PATH LENGTH...5.7 MILES 
BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.4327N/ 84.7917W 
ENDING LAT/LON...40.3815N/ 84.7092W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, WITH THE ASSISTANCE AND SUPPORT
FROM THE MERCER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND THE FORT
RECOVERY FIRE DEPARTMENT, CONFIRMS AN EF2 TORNADO NEAR FORT 
RECOVERY OHIO ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUNE 18, 2021. 

THE FIRST SIGN OF TORNADIC DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED JUST EAST OF THE
INDIANA/OHIO STATE LINE. TREES WERE SNAPPED ALONG PARK ROAD,
INDICATIVE OF EF0 TORNADO DAMAGE. THE TORNADO THEN MOVED 
SOUTHEAST, AND MAY HAVE BRIEFLY LIFTED, BEFORE TOUCHING BACK DOWN 
AND LEAVING A NOTICEABLE SWIRL IN A WHEAT FIELD BETWEEN ST JOE 
ROAD AND WABASH ROAD. THE TORNADO INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED ACROSS 
WABASH ROAD, IMPACTING THE FORT RECOVERY LUMBER YARD. MULTIPLE 
ROOFS WERE COMPLETELY LIFTED OFF SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS. 
ADDITIONALLY, A COLLAPSED CINDER BLOCK WALL WAS OBSERVED AT THE 
FORT RECOVERY LUMBER YARD. THIS WAS CONSISTENT WITH EF1 DAMAGE. 
THE TORNADO THEN CONTINUED MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WOODED AREAS 
BETWEEN WABASH ROAD AND FORT RECOVERY-MINSTER ROAD. HARDWOOD TREE 
DAMAGE WAS NOTED IN THE WOODED AREAS.

AFTER CROSSING FORT RECOVERY-MINSTER ROAD, PARTIAL REMOVAL OF AN
OUTBUILDING ROOF WAS NOTED ALONG WITH TREE DAMAGE. MORE 
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE THEN BECAME APPARENT AS THE TORNADO CONTINUED 
SOUTHEAST IMPACTING THE BURRVILLE ROAD/HART ROAD AREA. MULTIPLE 
HOMES ALONG BURRVILLE ROAD SUSTAINED SUBSTANTIAL ROOF DAMAGE
INCLUDING TOTAL REMOVAL OF OVER HALF THE ROOF OF A SINGLE FAMILY 
HOME. THE SURVEY TEAM ALSO NOTED COMPLETELY DESTROYED 
OUTBUILDINGS, THE REMOVAL OF ATTACHED GARAGES, SUBSTANTIAL TREE 
DAMAGE, AND PROJECTILES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTERIOR WALL. 
SEVERAL WOOD POWER POLES ALONG BURRVILLE ROAD WERE ALSO 
COMPLETELY BROKEN. DEBRIS FROM BURRVILLE ROAD WAS THROWN 
APPROXIMATELY A HALF MILE TOWARD WOURMS ROAD. IN ADDITION, THE 
TORNADO PRODUCED DAMAGE ALONG WOURMS ROAD, WHICH INCLUDED MORE 
BROKEN WOOD POWER POLES. THE WOODED AREA ALONG WOURMS ROAD ALSO 
EXHIBITED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE, WHERE NUMEROUS 
HARDWOOD TREES WERE SNAPPED OR KNOCKED OVER. DAMAGE ALONG BURRVILLE
ROAD AND WOURMS ROAD WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOW END EF2 DAMAGE, WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 115 MPH. 

THE TORNADO SEEMED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVED SOUTHEAST TO FOX
ROAD AND MEIRING ROAD. THE ONLY DAMAGE SEEN WAS MINOR DAMAGE TO 
AN OUTBUILDING AND PARTIAL REMOVAL OF THE TOP OF A SILO. NO 
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA. 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON THANKS THE MERCER COUNTY OHIO 
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND THE FORT RECOVERY FIRE DEPARTMENT FOR THE 
ASSISTANCE WITH THIS STORM DAMAGE SURVEY. 

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

$$
BPP/CAMPBELL

 

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Attention now turns to late this week. SPC:

Quote
An upper trough should gradually amplify over the north-central
states late this week into the upcoming weekend. Multiple
low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should move eastward across
the northern/central Plains to the Midwest in the same time frame,
encouraging convective development each day. An EML emanating from
the Rockies and High Plains should extend eastward into parts of the
Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. This EML coupled with increasing
low-level moisture and diurnal heating should support moderate to
perhaps locally strong instability ahead of a front which should be
located from parts of the northern/central Plains to the Upper
Midwest by Thursday afternoon. At least some severe risk is evident
across these regions along/ahead of the front as deep-layer shear
appears adequate. But, there is still considerable uncertainty
regarding the placement of convective development. Predictability
remains too low at this time to include a 15% severe area across any
portions of the central Plains or Upper Midwest for Thursday, but
severe probabilities will likely be needed in a later outlook.

An isolated severe threat may continue on Day 5/Friday across parts
of the mid MS Valley and Midwest as the upper trough becomes
established over the north-central CONUS. However, there may be
considerable convection ongoing Friday morning, which limits
confidence on where the greatest instability will exist ahead of a
front.

Will these days provide any quality chase setups in the form of discrete supercells producing visible :twister: in the 22-01Z timeframe? Given the way this year has gone, the smart money is on "fat chance" but I haven't really looked at any model data yet. Probably still too early for it to be of much help pinning down things like storm mode/timing, anyway.

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On 6/21/2021 at 6:27 AM, CheeselandSkies said:

Attention now turns to late this week. SPC:

Will these days provide any quality chase setups in the form of discrete supercells producing visible :twister: in the 22-01Z timeframe? Given the way this year has gone, the smart money is on "fat chance" but I haven't really looked at any model data yet. Probably still too early for it to be of much help pinning down things like storm mode/timing, anyway.

Wisconsin is a tornado wasteland since about 2005.  I remember when Dodge and Fond du Lac counties would always light up with warnings.

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15 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Wisconsin is a tornado wasteland since about 2005.  I remember when Dodge and Fond du Lac counties would always light up with warnings.

2005 was extremely active (state record yearly total, state record outbreak on August 18 including the long-track, killer F3 Stoughton tornado). 2004 had also been very active. 2008 and 2010 were also rather busy but you are right in that ever since has been very quiet. We had an outbreak in June 2014 (actually, same day/evening as the Pilger family in Nebraska) but that was late at night and from a QLCS, not unlike the Chicago suburbs tornado that just happened. 2017 had a long-track EF3 in May but that was waaaaaay up in the unchaseable Northwoods.

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Shear is relatively weaker today, but with the surface front draped across Chicago, couldn't rule out a brief spin-up this afternoon. That weak low near the MS River should help the front lift a little farther north tho lakeshore areas will keep the marine influence. Flash flooding will be the much greater threat as the 850 jet focuses across the area through the afternoon and evening. Training convection seems like a good bet given mean steering flow that is once again parallel to some of the boundaries out there. There are several weak MCVs/disturbances in the SW'rly flow extending from west-central IL back into OK to help kick things off with a little more heating.

Some of the businesses in my neighborhood are still closed after their basements flooded on Saturday.772553974_ScreenShot2021-06-28at9_48_24AM.thumb.png.34eaa61a3745107f474b5cd3669fbca6.png

 

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