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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Eh, it is Broyles, though. 

:lol:

 

Still remember the day 1 of his forecasts had my area barely included in MRGL, 150 miles from being  2% TOR and had an EF3 just miss us by a few miles.

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3 hours ago, TheSuckZone said:

:lol:

 

Still remember the day 1 of his forecasts had my area barely included in MRGL, 150 miles from being  2% TOR and had an EF3 just miss us by a few miles.

That's surprising, I more expect him to be excessively bullish on severe/particularly :twister:potential compared to what actually pans out. What day was that?

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37 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

That's surprising, I more expect him to be excessively bullish on severe/particularly :twister:potential compared to what actually pans out. What day was that?

I'd have to go back and do some searching. I remember it was in May of 2019 where we went though a really active 2 week period of being under the gun nearly every day. We tend to joke now that things should be calm if there is an Enhanced or MOD risk, just have to make sure we are ready on those MRGL days.

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Hello I'm just a random person interested in the weather/severe weather

The Nam is going bonkers this Saturday with strong instability and decent shear over Michigan while

the Gfs/Euro is more subdued. Will have to wait for the models to come to agreement in the coming days right now SPC only has a marginal for day 3

Edited: The nam could also just be an outlier

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
426 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN HURON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...  
  
* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 426 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE  
  OVER PORT AUSTIN, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED WATERSPOUT MOVING ONSHORE.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  PORT HOPE AROUND 445 PM EDT.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A  
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 

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As mentioned in general discussion thread a svr t storm watch has been issued this Sat, afternoon and evening for Chicago metro, northern IL and nw IN.   Don't really know which of these two threads to put comments and svr reports since this situation kind of snuck up on us.  Guess I will choose the svr thread for comments and observations.

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First svr warning for Chicago metro.

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
354 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 353 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM ARLINGTON HEIGHTS TO NEAR HOFFMAN ESTATES, MOVING  
  SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  FAR NORTH SIDE OF CHICAGO, ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, EVANSTON,   
  SCHAUMBURG, PALATINE, SKOKIE, DES PLAINES, MOUNT PROSPECT, HOFFMAN   
  ESTATES, GLENVIEW, BUFFALO GROVE, BARTLETT, OHARE AIRPORT,   
  STREAMWOOD, CAROL STREAM, HANOVER PARK, WHEELING, PARK RIDGE,   
  ADDISON AND GLENDALE HEIGHTS.  
  
THIS INCLUDES...OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE, SCHAUMBURG BOOMERS   
BASEBALL, AND HARPER COLLEGE.  
 

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
454 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2021  
  
MIC063-242115-  
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210724T2115Z/  
HURON MI-  
454 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2021  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR  
NORTHEASTERN HURON COUNTY...  
      
AT 454 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PORT HOPE, MOVING  
EAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
PORT HOPE AND HURON CITY.   

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1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
454 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2021  
  
MIC063-242115-  
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210724T2115Z/  
HURON MI-  
454 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2021  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR  
NORTHEASTERN HURON COUNTY...  
      
AT 454 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PORT HOPE, MOVING  
EAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
PORT HOPE AND HURON CITY.   

VID_20210724_163638745_exported_37325.thumb.jpg.991a479389f58cc35a79f791cd48424f.jpg

 

It was on the ground for about 5 miles missed pretty much any structures minus one barn it destroyed. I have more pictures and video just need to figure out how to post the video since I hate technology

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2 confirmed tornadoes north of the Detroit area.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
804 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

MIC099-250030-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-210725T0030Z/
Macomb MI-
804 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MACOMB COUNTY...

At 803 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Armada, or near
Richmond, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Richmond around 815 PM EDT
Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
802 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

MIC125-250045-
/O.CON.KDTX.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210725T0045Z/
Oakland MI-
802 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL OAKLAND COUNTY...

At 802 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Clarkston, or 8
miles west of Pontiac, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Pontiac around 835 PM EDT.
  Troy and Birmingham around 845 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Bloomfield Hills, Rochester Hills, Keego Harbor, Waterford,
Bloomfield Township, White Lake, Clawson, Sylvan Lake, Auburn Hills
and Lake Angelus.

 

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I also saw the Port Austin tornado yesterday. It was my first Michigan tornado I’ve seen in almost 4 years. Also had a large tornadic waterspout northwest of Port Austin before the storm came onshore. Environment just screamed “go here” in the Thumb to possibly see a tornado. Crossed the damage path of the EF2 from late June to see a rapidly rotating wall cloud just SE of Port Austin. A minute later the tornado developed. Pictures and video below. Will be editing pictures off my Sony a7RIV camera today. 

 

99BB7771-ADE3-4182-93DC-0DFD661E881C.jpeg

7FD192A9-B041-4949-9560-A2436F05DBDA.jpeg

F91BA436-EBF3-4CCD-A2E2-2781EB8F103B.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

I also saw the Port Austin tornado yesterday. It was my first Michigan tornado I’ve seen in almost 4 years. Also had a large tornadic waterspout northwest of Port Austin before the storm came onshore. Environment just screamed “go here” in the Thumb to possibly see a tornado. Crossed the damage path of the EF2 from late June to see a rapidly rotating wall cloud just SE of Port Austin. A minute later the tornado developed. Pictures and video below. Will be editing pictures off my Sony a7RIV camera today. 

 

99BB7771-ADE3-4182-93DC-0DFD661E881C.jpeg

7FD192A9-B041-4949-9560-A2436F05DBDA.jpeg

F91BA436-EBF3-4CCD-A2E2-2781EB8F103B.jpeg

Also made multiple calls to DTX about this tornado event. First about the tornadic waterspout, then a couple about the Port Austin tornado. Knew there wouldn’t be any warnings just like last month without spotter confirmation, as the radar beams in the state once again were above the lower part of the storm. 

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Quite the severe weather event for southeastern Michigan yesterday. The environment became quite unstable with high cape/strong shear and no interruption from earlier storms. As a result, storms exploded and became tornadic as they moved southeast towards Detroit. Very fun day to watch unfold.

 

 

 

 

 

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I got off work at 4 yesterday tired as hell and knowing I couldn’t make it to the thumb in time, so I took a nap and then I raced to meet the embedded supercell that dropped a tornado near White Lake. I stopped near Sylvan Lake just after the updraft occluded, but I still saw a grungy looking shelf with some cool striations. It was a decent chase but not as nice as the one I had on 6/26. 

This picture is of the tornado that hit Armada, from a friend of my girlfriend. Her house was ok but other houses on her street sustained damage. 50434E30-37A7-4F71-9C32-C4EB42798E13.thumb.jpeg.d7850966ce6560d0d06f29ba57a641bb.jpeg

 

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6 hours ago, MIstorm97 said:

Also made multiple calls to DTX about this tornado event. First about the tornadic waterspout, then a couple about the Port Austin tornado. Knew there wouldn’t be any warnings just like last month without spotter confirmation, as the radar beams in the state once again were above the lower part of the storm. 

Did you notice the second tornado/waterspout that occurred to the nw of the main tornado? Around the time the above tornado was roping out, I looked to the north from m25 and could see a second funnel and thin condesation funnel about 3 miles nnw. The funnel went behind the treeline so I couldn't get a good look to see if/where it was on the ground at. I found a video online that appears to show the second tornado/spout I seen.

https://m.facebook.com/groups/147834125298027/permalink/4161742787240454/?anchor_composer=false

 

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3 hours ago, outflow said:

Did you notice the second tornado/waterspout that occurred to the nw of the main tornado? Around the time the above tornado was roping out, I looked to the north from m25 and could see a second funnel and thin condesation funnel about 3 miles nnw. The funnel went behind the treeline so I couldn't get a good look to see if/where it was on the ground at. I found a video online that appears to show the second tornado/spout I seen.

https://m.facebook.com/groups/147834125298027/permalink/4161742787240454/?anchor_composer=false

 

It looked like as the main tornado was occluding that a new tornado/tornadic waterspout formed. I couldn’t confirm anything due to trees blocking the ground but I thought I saw a new one form

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28 minutes ago, Avon said:

The Nam is going wild again with the parameters for this wed/thurs setup like it did saturday, only going to take it with a grain of salt though until further model agreement is established.

I was just about to post about that. Insane parameters and if verifies could get very interesting 

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