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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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Looking at the bigger picture (EPS below), there is probably a relatively higher threat for tornadoes on Sunday. With the pattern change coming in, there is reasonable agreement on a deepening surface low tracking from IA into MI Sunday - Sunday night. Looks like more than enough deep layer shear for rotating storms. The lingering question for me now is instability due to moisture return being stunted by the Gulf/SE tropical.

12Z guidance is struggling w/ ongoing activity from Iowa into the Ohio Valley. Suspect some changes will be required on the late AM outlook.2096825431_ScreenShot2021-06-18at9_21_42AM.thumb.png.d393379fd9b73aefe89388a6265ec069.png

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

....

12Z guidance is struggling w/ ongoing activity from Iowa into the Ohio Valley. Suspect some changes will be required on the late AM outlook.

All short range guidance from last night and early this morning has been horrendous.   Virtually every model I looked at last night and early this morning showed the precip shield that came into OH from N. IN and S. MI dissipating well before it made it to central OH.  As I type this, it's torrential rain here and the thunderstorm line will go through Cincinnati.

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5 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Emergency Management is reporting many trees and power lines down from the line that just went through here

I saw Kalamazoo got hit with a ton of lightning.  Nice 5:30 am natural alarm clock.  :guitar:  Didn't know there was wind as well.  

Storm was lame here.  Only 0.5" rain.  

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

All short range guidance from last night and early this morning has been horrendous.   Virtually every model I looked at last night and early this morning showed the precip shield that came into OH from N. IN and S. MI dissipating well before it made it to central OH.  As I type this, it's torrential rain here and the thunderstorm line will go through Cincinnati.

The EML plume had a pretty stout cap last night that did screw-zone areas on the southern part of the risk area farther west.  It seems like there was enough additional moisture surging up the MS valley by morning for the complex to finally overcome this warm zone and drop south.

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4 hours ago, buckeye said:

All short range guidance from last night and early this morning has been horrendous.   Virtually every model I looked at last night and early this morning showed the precip shield that came into OH from N. IN and S. MI dissipating well before it made it to central OH.  As I type this, it's torrential rain here and the thunderstorm line will go through Cincinnati.

***knocking on wood***

Radar trends aren't looking too bad for you right now. 

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