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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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esoscale Discussion 0503
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0515 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri into central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131...

   Valid 032215Z - 032345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue across Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 131 through the remainder of the afternoon. Large
   hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary threats, but
   a tornado is also possible, particularly with any supercell
   structures.

   DISCUSSION...Organized linear segments and a discrete supercell have
   matured across northern and central portions of Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 131 over the past couple of hours. A couple of severe
   hail/damaging gust reports have recently been received with the more
   discrete convection across west-central IL. Here, temperatures have
   been able to warm into the mid to upper 70s, with mid 60s F
   dewpoints contributing to MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg. While mid
   to upper tropospheric flow is not particularly strong, modest
   veering with height is contributing to 35+ kts of effective bulk
   shear, supporting updraft organization. The severe threat is
   expected to remain locally higher with the more discrete storms
   across central IL, where instability is more robust relative to
   points farther north. Low-level shear is weak across Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 131 overall, but given some directional shear in
   the boundary layer, a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly with
   any supercell structures.

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Overall structure of the complex (linear cluster/bowing segment with supercell/hook at the south end) reminds me of the one that produced the at-dusk EF2 that I glimpsed near Trivoli/Hanna City (about 3 rows of counties north) on March 15, 2016.

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I'm not sure what I was looking at to my NW and eventual North. I couldn't see any clear cut rotation to be the wall cloud of the storm. I have a horrible view from my backyard and kept wandering out trying to get a view in gaps between obstructions and lightning was my biggest fear lol. Wasn't a whole lot of thunder nor lightning here. I think it was just a bit too far away for me to have had a visual on the main part of the storm.

 

Maybe this tail end Charlie can give me a thunderstorm warning.

Was still some pretty cool cloud formations regardless.

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When I first seen this I thought it could be the wall cloud dissipating or something. Never seen a tornado or tornadic cell in daylight. Wasn't any rotation that I could see but not sure how evident it is from a few miles away. Just seen a ring like pattern and was intrigued.

 

20210503_181623.thumb.jpg.0d2ad7201171cac9d9acadfd085c943d.jpg

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
616 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  NORTH CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHEASTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHWESTERN MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 615 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MECHANICSBURG,  
  OR 15 MILES EAST OF SPRINGFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  ILLIOPOLIS AND MOUNT AUBURN AROUND 625 PM CDT.  
  NIANTIC AROUND 635 PM CDT.  
  HARRISTOWN AROUND 640 PM CDT.  
  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
642 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 642 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HARRISTOWN, OR  
  9 MILES WEST OF DECATUR, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  HARRISTOWN AROUND 645 PM CDT.  
  DECATUR AROUND 650 PM CDT.  
  MOUNT ZION AND LONG CREEK AROUND 705 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE BOODY,  
ELWIN, HERVEY CITY, DECATUR AIRPORT AND OAKLEY.

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Funny look with the counties that are in the polygon but not actually in the watch.  Guess LOT didn't want to put any of their counties in.
Revisiting this, for some reason we weren't included on the SPC collaboration call even though a few of our counties were in the MD. We probably would've been fine adding those few counties into the watch had we been included on the collab call.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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