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CoastalWx

March 2021 Weather Discussion

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This won't get read after this first sentence - I'm sure... but I've also noticed an interesting aspect about the synoptic behavior during springs into early summers over eastern N/A ...particularly along and above the mid latitudes. 

I've called it "continental folding pattern" - personal sort of euphemism for how the fast flow [ apparently ] of the mid and higher latitudes of the Pacific are still impinging on the super-circumstance of the western N/A high country - the cordillera of the Canadian - U.S. Rockies .. This longer termed persisting fast Pac flow is force up, and then by Coriolis convention/physics it is forced it to turn right producing DVM mass loading; which creates an enhanced tendency for higher heights ... Down stream is enhancing eastern Canadian trough

It seems to me more common in spring and autumn, ...and "I think" [ hypothesis incoming] ..that is the root cause in this seasonal lag effect people are catching onto. It's why it's snowing vastly more frequently in Octobers/Novembers than the previous 100 years of climo ( prior to ... 2000 etc..), as well, why we've have so many CAA events later into April and Mays...

These cold intrusions that are out of season are belied by the ongoing AN - baseline CC signal that's also in place at all times.  We don't see them in the yearly means...We just see a year that was .. decimals, or 1 or 2 above normal... But it has snowed in f'n May, like 9 of the last 19 springs ... and probably that often in October.. I remember in 1987, on October 10...there was a strong coastal storm that dumped an impressive early season blue bomb over the Capital District/western CT ... and I could smell the snow in the air even though it only rained here in eastern Mass.. I thought that was an incredible to 'smell snow' so early in the year...  Now?  ..it's like, Halloween so where's winter.

Anyway, ..even extending this later into late May into the mid summer period...I am noticing tendencies for a 700 to 500 mb level easterly flow to set up N of Bermuda that tends to come into the M/A ...more and more. This has muted big heat from getting up here... despite some big time toppy ridge looks at times.  The big ridge around the 4th of July ..I think that was 2017, ..the one where the GFS finally had to give up on its N/stream bias ...but in doing so, went completely nuts and put up 111 F high temperatures for HFD-BED like this was sage land between the jungle and desert over NE Sierra Leone of west Africa ... no problem...  of course we only managed 94 to 97 .. Big heat,  but believe it or not... left it on the field.

That set up hybridized that usually polarward position of the Bermuda deep layer typology such that that easterly "trade" jet came into the M/A .. and muted thicknesses under those towering 600 dm ridge heights.  You could have packed 585 thicknesses in there with east, and made a buck-04 out of that but it was like synoptic-scaled taint.  No one would notice that ... It's just unknowable to anyone outside tortured realm of crushing Meteorological-nerdology ... haha. Who would at 96/75 anyway -

But in general... I've seen this in a lot of June and July's in recent years.. where you set up an anticyclonic mid level rotation tendency between NS and Bermuda, which places the real heat conveyor up into the NE Lakes and Ontario - last year's big heat over NNE in May... while DCA-PHL-NYC were un-memorably warm, is probably the better example of a kind of synoptic inverse effect of the Bermuda ridge ( CC related no doubt...) ...re-positioning in the means more N. 

So as the HC expands north (CC)do you think it’ll eventually put E NE in the trade wind belt in the summer? Says the weather geek looking for his first landfalling TC from the *east* like in the Caribbean...Probably still 50 years or so from that happening.

 

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23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You and me both... it's been a crushing winter ( for me personally...) and just the change in environment - any change is good at this point for me frankly.  I don't normally get affected by sensible weather stuff.. or the modeling noise, but the former personal stuff is making this experience rather unique.

Seeing no white and tinting green in lawn... hell, maybe even swell a few Forsythia shrub buds - is that too much to ask?  ...begging the Dickensian ward whipper ...  Those might be welcoming as symbolic to better times.

It really has not been a very entertaining meteorological winter, so not much hope ...none of these events left me ultimately very inspired. Although the 30" CSI band from N or ALB to mid NH was point fantastic.   Otherwise, this has been a drag slog of rationalized bs to get through ... and I know I may be in the minority but I do love summer, ...tracking heat...tracking convection. These are equally as interesting to me as deep winter fair ...

The last thing my personal druthers either wants nor requires at this point is protracting abysmal cold weather that only placates nostalgia threads of storms of spring yore, but won't deliver shit out the window.  ...  You know, in a separate texting thread a Met buddy referred to yesterday as a "bottom 10 day - only in New England can a gem sky of irradient life giving sun manage to pull off a piece of shit afternoon "   Lol ..funny

Totally agree - a challenging personal period that beckons for some nice weather. If get into a string of backdoor hell I'm going out my 5th floor window.

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36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You and me both... it's been a crushing winter ( for me personally...) and just the change in environment - any change is good at this point for me frankly.  I don't normally get affected by sensible weather stuff.. or the modeling noise, but the former personal stuff is making this experience rather unique.

Seeing no white and tinting green in lawn... hell, maybe even swell a few Forsythia shrub buds - is that too much to ask?  ...begging the Dickensian ward whipper ...  Those might be welcoming as symbolic to better times.

It really has not been a very entertaining meteorological winter, so not much hope ...none of these events left me ultimately very inspired. Although the 30" CSI band from N or ALB to mid NH was point fantastic.   Otherwise, this has been a drag slog of rationalized bs to get through ... and I know I may be in the minority but I do love summer, ...tracking heat...tracking convection. These are equally as interesting to me as deep winter fair ...

The last thing my personal druthers either wants nor requires at this point is protracting abysmal cold weather that only placates nostalgia threads of storms of spring yore, but won't deliver shit out the window.  ...  You know, in a separate texting thread a Met buddy referred to yesterday as a "bottom 10 day - only in New England can a gem sky of irradient life giving sun manage to pull off a piece of shit afternoon "   Lol ..funny

 

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd take a pack that's good enough to have winter fun in over bare ground for sure. But at this stage with nothing imminent, I'll take any nice weather. 

It really is a shame that we didn't get better luck with some of the more stochastic nuances within the long wave flow because this winter really could have been a keeper for the whole region. When you couple that extended period without torches with a couple more well-timed heavy hitters, it changes the overall tenor the season dramatically. Having the Christmas event phase into a cutter, and missing out on some phases in January and that second week of February turned this into a forgettable winter for at least the northern half of the region.

Too bad so much got left on the table because all of the ingredients were there for a great season, but just didn't quite come together. In hindsight, this year was a perfect example of why it so risky to forecast a banner of a snowfall season....it very easily could have been 2011, but it just did not happen because you need a lot of breaks to achieve a stretch like that, despite the long wave pattern being conducive.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

It really is a shame that we didn't get better luck with some the more stochastic nuances in the long wave flow because this winter really could have been a keeper for the whole region. When you couple that extended period without torches with a couple more well-timed heavy hitters, it changes the overall tenor the season dramatically. Having the Christmas event phase into a cutter, and missing out on some phases in January and that second week of February turned this into a forgettable winter for at least the northern half of the region.

Too bad so much got left on the table because all of the ingredients were there for a great season, but just didn't quite come together.

If we don't get much this month, this winter is maybe a grade better than last year? At least for here. I know it was better in other areas. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If we don't get much this month, this winter is maybe a grade better than last year? At least for here. I know it was better in other areas. 

Funny you say that....I have been harping all season on how its been very similar snowfall wise in my hood...just colder. Half of my seasonal allotment came in the early December deal last year, and this year, 27.5" of the 49.5" came in two events (11" 12/17 and 16.5" 2/1).

I  have 5" more than I did last season.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny you say that....I have been harping all season on how its been very similar snowfall wise in my hood...just colder. Half of my seasonal allotment came in the early December deal last year, and this year, 27.5" of the 49.5" came in two events (11" 12/17 and 16.5" 2/1).

I  have 5" more than I did last season.

Feb was good this year which saves it. I can't complain at all even after getting skunked on 2/1. That was the first real Feb since 2015 here as far as snow and snow pack go. 

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I remember that storm.  Had about 10 inches per memory.   What a great March that was!  Didn’t we have another threat about a week later?

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Feb was good this year which saves it. I can't complain at all even after getting skunked on 2/1. That was the first real Feb since 2015 here as far as snow and snow pack go. 

February was good, it just underachieved as a whole, as I intimated above...vast majority of my monthly snowfall came on 2/1. We looked primed for a huge month, then "whoosh"...that period immediately following VD Day just went to hell in a hand basket. What looked like two consecutive mod-heavy hitters just gave SNE the 7-10 split....with one going rainer, and the other nuisance. That week's failure was the game changer....only getting 10.5" of snow between Feb 2 and 28 leaves a good deal to be desired.

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26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

35F and overcast...this blows.

48 and glorious....this rocks

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26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

35F and overcast...this blows.

Yup...I was wrong .... well, 'hoping' anyway, that the clouds were not going to make it SE due to drying ( although you may be in it either way in that regard -)  ... It's clouded over here. 

Nape over -

Not so down near the Pike...

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58 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said:

So as the HC expands north (CC)do you think it’ll eventually put E NE in the trade wind belt in the summer? Says the weather geek looking for his first landfalling TC from the *east* like in the Caribbean...Probably still 50 years or so from that happening.

 

I've tempted the notion in my internal monologue a few times ...  I don't know about that in any absolute sense, tho..  It seems already that sort of N displaced Bermuda ridge ..where by an anomalous easterly wind band has come into the M/A at higher latitudes?  That seems to be a "quasi" established ... maybe even warning that that could eventual evolve.  Perhaps as a more distant destiny given a few decades of continued unmitigated, relentless rise in global warming/CC -

I am not personally privy to the most recent state of the art with the longer termed climate modeling - but... I wonder if a future world is so warm that we lose the Ferrel distinction altogether, and what emerges becomes ever more like a two cellular hemisphere: HC and the Polar regions... It seems these velocity soaked winters are really an early warning signal that the intrusion of the HC into the mid latitudes is underway - at an insidiously slow rate ...  I say that in part sardonically, but it is happening just slowly enough to creep.

But that's all speculation.  I am an accomplished Sci fi author, full disclosure and I can sell this shit when not attempting to "sell" anything. I just love the pastime of open discourse and created witticism and admit to advancing more plausibility than at times is really very 'possible' - I try to make it clear which is which tho.  I would prefer not driving people's opinions ...I would only wish thought provocation and then have that maybe lead to skeptical testing. 

 

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ooooh ha-ho-ho-ho ... so you're adMITting it's napey now -

 

Wow, I actually made it to the end of one of your posts. :D

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D6 Euro is insane nape on this 12z run... At least by the coarse view - if that depiction where enough,  might as well be naked angles of one's carnal dreams tongue tickling beneath the ears with that look ...

Actually, D7 DEFINITELY is... in fact, that would be straight warm-like

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

D6 Euro is insane nape on this 12z run...  I mean might as well be naked angles of one's carnal dreams tongue tickling beneath the ears with that look

Last a solid 3+ days it looks like. Hopefully it is correct....pretty good multi-guidance support today anyway.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last a solid 3+ days it looks like. Hopefully it is correct....pretty good multi-guidance support today anyway.

It's a big useful factor at this time of year right there.  yeah -  

Thing is ... parroting Scott early ...it's interesting that is not a BD look.  How the hell did we wend the hemisphere into that modeled look in March...   ...maybe owing to the rising NAO out there.. unknown

Folks, you shouldn't get hopes up if you are spring enthusiasts until that's inside D4.5 because we've all got time-trialed experience in this part of the world - very minute synoptic construct changes can end that with a lvl cold wedge, doing so out of nowhere in sort term corrections. Yet, still overall verify the pattern recognition as a success - we are the Labrador 'Red Headed' step child, eating shit so that the rest of 'em get cake.

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

D6 Euro is insane nape on this 12z run... At least by the coarse view - if that depiction where enough,  might as well be naked angles of one's carnal dreams tongue tickling beneath the ears with that look ...

Actually, D7 DEFINITELY is... in fact, that would be straight warm-like

This would be the type of March where we get widespread 70s 2nd week of March and then snows a week later. 

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This would be the type of March where we get widespread 70s 2nd week of March and then snows a week later. 

It’s happened many times before...March can bring it all, and all in a weeks time at that. 

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny you say that....I have been harping all season on how its been very similar snowfall wise in my hood...just colder. Half of my seasonal allotment came in the early December deal last year, and this year, 27.5" of the 49.5" came in two events (11" 12/17 and 16.5" 2/1).

I  have 5" more than I did last season.

12" less here going into this month, and current models point downhill from there.  Last season finished at C- with its mild wx after Nov and mediocre storms thru met winter. The 2 biggest snowfalls came after the equinox.   After 3 straight cold Aprils maybe we get some nice early spring wx?

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now watch the EPS show a backdoor. :lol: 

No, that will start showing up on the 84 hour NAM when it gets in range, and we'll all dismiss it as the NAM being the NAM and when it stills shows 38F with Tip's northeast-facing screen door slamming shut at 48 hours out, other guidance will start coming on board.

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16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This would be the type of March where we get widespread 70s 2nd week of March and then snows a week later. 

Mmm... until I see this,

image.png.e4a6a659159294993a3967d4d3286341.png

... fill/ leave the Canadian shield, I don't care how utopic the synoptic backyard looks,  whatever happens after next week isn't without risk afterward.

 

That said, as the month ages obviously the sun's perpetual 'bright flash' off a hydrogen bomb becomes evermore the modulating factor-  ...ever think of that?   That bright flash that blinds people in nuclear bomb explosion, that's what the sun is .....  ALWAYS   ... heh, kinda neat

We can even lose that cold bank account up there and still go through a 'marginal' bowling ball vulnerability - although I wonder if that's less favored this year ..

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Over the years, I've come to enjoy each of the seasons on their own merits. I know most of y'all seem to want it to snow and then flip a switch to summer, but personally, I like the a spring season in New England for all that it entails: clouds, showers, sleet, backdoor cold fronts, warmups, wind-driven rain at 49F, and 60s and clear. Summers giving me chances at those hot, humid, and hazy days and nights where the moon and stars just feel like they're smeared across the sky from the humidity I also enjoy. Fall is still my absolute favorite; the September 1 to December 1 progression is my favorite time of the year. It all has a certain appeal to me and I don't think I'd be happy with a switch flipping from season to season.

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Man...that's a shit pattern for California ...

Almost looks like an 'atmospheric river' ...

I mean, c'mon ... how many different ways can we see the pattern NOT look like La Nina before we realize La Nina ain't running the show -

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23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man...that's a shit pattern for California ...

Almost looks like an 'atmospheric river' ...

I mean, c'mon ... how many different ways can we see the pattern NOT look like La Nina before we realize La Nina ain't running the show -

I think they need the moisture though. If I’m not mistaken, they are drier than normal. 
Anyways, the mid month period does look interesting on the EPS. 

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