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CoastalWx

March 2021 Weather Discussion

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36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Next big chance appears to be the 5th 6th. Big PNA spike and diving meridian trough. We watch

Agree even though the models don't have anything

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Next big chance appears to be the 5th 6th. Big PNA spike and diving meridian trough. We watch

Would love to see one big coastal bomb in early March.  12"+ for all of SNE (sorry NNE folks) and then bring on the warmth.

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13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

3/8/05. We lost a massive tree during that on winter hill. Blown right over. It wasnt long after it changed to snow when that happened. My cruddy anemometer back then recorded like 63mph or something and it wasn’t even 10m. Prob more like 3m. I think the airport recorded something similar but I bet 10m up on our hill would have been 70+. 

We went from like 40 to 26 in a couple hours I think. True flash freeze event. 

We had near-freezing sludge at the start on the 8th and by the time snow was done (11.5") on the 9th temps were in the singles and reached -14 the next morning.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Agree even though the models don't have anything

Big PNA spike in time to be cold and dry. Confidence waning on anything interesting.

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29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Big PNA spike in time to be cold and dry. Confidence waning on anything interesting.

We note. EPS says your confidence is wrong

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That's a tight squeeze on the 3/6 potential as modeled....could obviously change though. But right now nothing looks exciting.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You need to be mindful of of the poster with whom you are conversing....if there is a snow shower in s RI, it will be long live winter lol

Congrats man you nailed it. Geezuz take off like you said. All you got left is snark. 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats man you nailed it. Geezuz take off like you said. All you got left is snark. 

You have as much snark as anyone whenever someone posts anything that can be perceived as remotely marginalizing anything winter. But don't you get it....you keep pining for my departure, then I'll be the post leader in the lawn thread this spring.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have as much snark as anyone whenever someone posts anything that can be perceived as remotely marginalizing anything winter. But don't you get it....you keep pining for my departure, then I'll be the post leader in the lawn thread this spring.

Congrats

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23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You need to be mindful of of the poster with whom you are conversing....if there is a snow shower in s RI, it will be long live winter lol

NB!

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Big PNA spike in time to be cold and dry. Confidence waning on anything interesting.

Yeah... it's getting increasingly more difficult to buy into the GEF's motif out there in time.  It's hard because the operational versions have now recently come into sync all the way out to D 10 (save dumb details...) and if anything are even colder.   Cross-guidance support for a modest +PNAP is out of phase with a modest -PNA.  Ha... that would be opposite what the GEFs have been selling - for days and days I might add... F-it! it is what is.

This seems to happen a lot in recent years... You wait and wait for the side that should start to capitulate, and then it only doubles-down.  Then, what's happened was some a compromise in the verification tendencies.. Heh.. perhaps that the path of least required headache. 

Just some thoughts for the general reader below -

Some of the things I've cited, I've been thinking about deeper ( because I of course have a life so fulfilling and enriched with spiritual utopia otherwise... )

1 ... La Nina spring climate. It is not a 'weather model' of course - one cannot use climate to predict the weather in that sense. Duh, ... however, it does inform.  If the climate was warm in the past, during or after similar indicators were observed ... yet, one is presently observing a cool look, that correlative information tells them to be on the look out for reasons that the present cool look might correct/begin to do so at some point in time.  'Correction vectoring' seems apropos. There were some strikingly warm springs that began in their March's, following ENSO distributions of this ilk .. antecedent to this spring.   

But here's the thing ... and the more I think about it there's no real getting around this:  the general circulation eddy of the Pacific has not really looked very La Nina this year... It makes then attempting to apply a La Nina climate history a little dubious to me. One cannot in one hand admit something is not working out, and then expect positive returns in the other - seems kind of obvious, huh.    

In short, La Nina seems more represented in the oceanic SST/thermocline layout than one operative in the hemispheric circulation, thus outright spring climatology should come into question in any modus operandi.

The other possibility ...well, 'plausibility,' that complicates the f out of this muddied array of compensating failures ( haha ...) is that the HC is still sort of arguably burying the effects of these ENSO's as the - to date - best estimating reason why there has been less observed coupling to the ENSO since 2000.  NCEP is claiming the La Nina footprint this year but I'm not inclined to agree with them out of box.  I suspect the points below are obscuring the truth, and since it sort of mimics the La Nina by driving enhanced Trade Wind/ SS Stressing, this is masking what is really going on - hard to parse the two apart, because the velocity is skewing.    

2 ... Hadely Cell expansion, as is noted over recent years (decades) is/has been observable effecting global circulations ...  3 to 6 dm of residual seasonal heights that linger within the tropical 'girdle' during boreal winters, are causing the ambient gradient to increase. Perhaps beneath standard intervals for even anomaly detection .. but it exerts just as well. That is increasing velocity in the balanced geostrophic state. 

Velocity is intrinsic in wave mechanics... there's really no way to get around that (then) having some kind of influence in this debate...  The application ( if not implication) here is highly speculative - but it deals with conservation of wind flux/mass-balancing.  If this expansion is speeding up the interfacing jet between the HC and the lower Ferrel latitudes (i.e. 45 N), that simply has to change how the La Nina can effect hemisphere ... it's as good a starting explanation as any for the apparent lack of observed La Nina hemisphere at mid latiudes - could be a kind of false equivalency La Nina year. It's in the lower latitudes but it's being smeared above ...

Meanwhile ... Euro weeklies and oh, lest we forget .. celestial mechanics.  Mm hm.  July is still coming ..  Whatever happens, if we are going to get our sun's zenith to 71 deg tilt angle above the horizon by June 30, and it is only 39 deg elevation at zenith on Feb 25th...  at some point we have to capitulate to the notion that winter is dying here... Obviously it is a bargaining games on when that happens .. but rest assured -

Now, I haven't worked much with the Euro Weeklies in the past - only vicariously through those that do so in here to be truthful.  I am aware they looked AN for March. And I thought when hearing that, "It couldn't hurt."  But if the La Nina stuff is being blunted from voicing by speedy hemisphere, it may be that when the gradeint relaxes, it is allowed to express - maybe it takes longer.  I mean shit ..we're trying to move a hemisphere's amount of atmospheric momentum here so.. heh, maybe it takes time to nudge that elephant.

So, at the end of the day .. the operational runs should not look this cold but only get more cold ... sort of a wtf moment for anticipating spring behavior.  As far as March... we are not in March yet.. heh.

 

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57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a tight squeeze on the 3/6 potential as modeled....could obviously change though. But right now nothing looks exciting.

Not enough cold around?  Last nights Euro starts off as a lot of rain for all of new england but brings some decent snow to NNE at the end. 

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I'm not even sure that 192 hour, 00z Euro is worth the time to even call it a "potential"

Doesn't seem to qualify probability/ .. determination enough to think of it as much more than phantom deep field Euro crap

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7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It's a real snoozefest on models, yikes. Hopefully we can squeeze a little excitement out of the latter half of March

I hate model-watching in late March, partly because I always forget that the runs are an hour later thanks to DST.  

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a tight squeeze on the 3/6 potential as modeled....could obviously change though. But right now nothing looks exciting.

It has potential to amp more ... sure you're onto that - just sayn'

The CPC telecon is suddenly quite concerted among the members, taking the PNA on a "camel bump" ride around that time.

image.png.e4b318e4788ed1efbc065aa80076416d.png

Technically not positive at the apex ?  - no

However, that can also at times be misleading ...where the absolute value of that curve is not as important as the modality/ and the complexion of agreement helps therein...

So, that does offer at least a weak Archembaultian sort of correction event aspect to it - it's an evolving scenario. 

At first I was thinking the Euro's doing it's usual D8--10 day dreams of phantasmic cyclonic glory ...but it appears there "might be" ( we'll see where it goes ...) be some large mass-field signaling in play.

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14 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It's a real snoozefest on models, yikes. Hopefully we can squeeze a little excitement out of the latter half of March

You could squeeze something in in the first or second week. Unless you take the modeling as gospel 10 -15 days from now, which only brings you to the first week, to week and a half.  

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11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I'd give myself a solid B.

February brought me to a B-.  If I hit climo with snow totals I could bump up to a B/B+

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll vanish. 

Not looking forward to any of that talk...Even any threat of March becoming April-lite has my mind going elsewhere, away from weather talk.

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5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

February brought me to a B-.  If I hit climo with snow totals I could bump up to a B/B+

Not looking forward to any of that talk...Even any threat of March becoming April-lite has my mind going elsewhere, away from weather talk.

Well, the winter itself is a C-.....I meant my seasonal outlook was a B.....Did well with the notable exception of February...seasonal totals are pretty accurate. I had March near normal, which looks solid.

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