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March 2021

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3 hours ago, gmendevils8204 said:

The blackout occurring on one of the hottest days of the year added to the legend of that summer.

Yeah, the two most memorable heatwaves of the 1970s were late August into early September 1973 and mid-July 1977. The brief heatwave around 7-4-74 was also memorable since is was in the mid 90s for the July 4th celebrations. The 70s heatwaves usually didn’t last too long. Even the famous 1977 heatwave dropped into the 50s a few days later.

 

NYC when the sensor was in the shade under thick foliage

1977-07-13 93 73 83.0 6.4 0 18 0.00 0.0 0
1977-07-14 92 73 82.5 5.8 0 18 0.00 0.0 0
1977-07-15 96 72 84.0 7.3 0 19 0.00 0.0 0
1977-07-16 98 75 86.5 9.8 0 22 T 0.0 0
1977-07-17 97 78 87.5 10.7 0 23 T 0.0 0
1977-07-18 100 78 89.0 12.2 0 24 0.00 0.0 0
1977-07-19 102 78 90.0 13.2 0 25 0.00 0.0 0
1977-07-20 92 75 83.5 6.7 0 19 0.06 0.0 0
1977-07-21 104 78 91.0 14.2 0 26 0.00 0.0 0
1977-07-22 88 68 78.0 1.2 0 13 0.00 0.0 0
1977-07-23 87 62 74.5 -2.3 0 10 0.00 0.0 0
1977-07-24 90 70 80.0 3.2 0 15 0.00 0.0 0
1977-07-25 78 70 74.0 -2.8 0 9 0.48 0.0 0
1977-07-26 82 62 72.0 -4.7 0 7 0.00 0.0 0
1977-07-27 81 58 69.5 -7.2 0 5 0.00 0.0 0
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summers that averaged 80.0 or over for 30 days is a hot summer regardless of the other 60 days...these 30 day periods have been more frequent lately...high minimum driven in some cases...

year.....30 day ave...

1955.....81.6

1966.....81.0

1977.....80.2

1980.....82.5

1983.....80.9

1988.....81.8

1993.....81.2

1995.....81.1

1999.....81.9

2002.....80.3

2005.....81.8

2006.....80.1

2010.....81.8

2011.....81.0

2013.....81.7

2015.....80.0

2016.....80.3

2020.....80.0

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

summers that averaged 80.0 or over for 30 days is a hot summer regardless of the other 60 days...these 30 day periods have been more frequent lately...high minimum driven in some cases...

The NYC years since the 1990s would be much warmer than the 1950s to 1980s if the sensor wasn’t blocked by the thick vegetation. The warmest 30 day periods at EWR and LGA were in more recent times. So we can add a few degrees to the more recent NYC warmest 30 day periods.

warmest 30 day periods 

LGA

83.8...2010

83.3...2020

82.9....2005

82.8....2016

82.7....2006

82.5....2013

82.4....1999

81.9....1995

81.7....2019

81.8....1966

81.6....2012

81.5....1980....1955

EWR

83.6....1993

83.4....2011

83.1....1988

82.9....2010

82.6....2013

82.2....1994

82.0.....2005

81.9.....1999

81.6.....2012

81.4.....1980

81.3.....2016

81.2.....2020

81.1.....1955

80.6.....1966...1979

80.5.....1973
 

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Larry Cosgrove is on board with a return to cold and  potential snow in the 2nd half of March.

Yuck, just give me warm and dry weather. Time to get out of the house and enjoy the outdoors......took a quick hiatus from weather watching, 2nd dose of Moderna kicked my a**

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The NYC years since the 1990s would be much warmer than the 1950s to 1980s if the sensor wasn’t blocked by the thick vegetation. The warmest 30 day periods at EWR and LGA were in more recent times. So we can add a few degrees to the more recent NYC warmest 30 day periods.

warmest 30 day periods 

LGA

83.8...2010

83.3...2020

82.9....2005

82.8....2016

82.7....2006

82.5....2013

82.4....1999

81.9....1995

81.7....2019

81.8....1966

81.6....2012

81.5....1980....1955

EWR

83.6....1993

83.4....2011

83.1....1988

82.9....2010

82.6....2013

82.2....1994

82.0.....2005

81.9.....1999

81.6.....2012

81.4.....1980

81.1.....1955

80.6.....1966...1979

80.5.....1973
 

years before the 1990's you would have a July temperature range of 98/58...now its 98/64 or so...almost every summer NYC fails to get below 60 in July and August...back in the 1963 NYC had lows in the low 50's both months with heat waves near 100 a few times...I think it has a lot to do with it being much drier 60 years ago...

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

years before the 1990's you would have a July temperature range of 98/58...now its 98/64 or so...almost every summer NYC fails to get below 60 in July and August...back in the 1963 NYC had lows in the low 50's both months with heat waves near 100 a few times...I think it has a lot to do with it being much drier 60 years ago...

Yeah, the minimums are rising quickly at both urban and rural sites. POU has fewer July lows in the 40s. While the NYC lows in the 50s have been harder to come by.

13CE1B3D-3040-4D27-B805-DC38A26118FC.thumb.jpeg.8427a8e121b49790bfa215b0e457dfcb.jpeg

 

81A2F306-973A-4D2A-9F61-55E3164B5804.thumb.jpeg.bdd9b71593dd719d9257dcf2fcdf63db.jpeg

 

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

years before the 1990's you would have a July temperature range of 98/58...now its 98/64 or so...almost every summer NYC fails to get below 60 in July and August...back in the 1963 NYC had lows in the low 50's both months with heat waves near 100 a few times...I think it has a lot to do with it being much drier 60 years ago...

1963 came out in the win four lottery game today...I should have played it...:arrowhead:

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If my memory is accurate. 94 and 95 had brutal summers...hell week for fall sports was like running in baked concrete...no rain and 100 degree temps....had to fight for a spot on the team as a frosh :)

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1 hour ago, scoobydoo1 said:

If my memory is accurate. 94 and 95 had brutal summers...hell week for fall sports was like running in baked concrete...no rain and 100 degree temps....had to fight for a spot on the team as a frosh :)

93 (Jul/Aug), 94 (Jun/Jul) & 95 (Jul/Aug) were all brutal for 2/3's of the summer. July 15, 1995 is the benchmark for oppressive heat & humidity.

Writeup from the NCDC storm events database:

           An oppressive heat wave gripped most of Eastern Pennsylvania. It 
           climaxed on the 15th as almost every location reported record 
            breaking heat. The dew point temperatures, reached into the 80s 
            across southern Pennsylvania that day, an almost unheard of 
            phenomena. This, combing with sweltering temperatures produced an 
            apparent temperature of 129 degrees in Philadelphia.
The heat wave 
            was broken for most of state the night of the 15th as a backdoor 
            cold front helped trigger a complex of severe thunderstorms. Relief 
            for southeast Pennsylvania had to wait for a second cold front to 
            move through the evening of the 18th. Forty people died because of 
            the heat, about 80 percent of them within Philadelphia. Heat related 
            deaths occurred in Philadelphia (33), Delaware (2), Lancaster (2), 
            Chester (1), Clinton (1) and York (1) Counties. Most often the 
            individuals who died were in poor health, shut-ins, lived in 
            attached brick housing and had no fans or air conditioning. In the 
            Susquehanna Valley two deaths were the result of outdoor activities, 
            an 80-year-old man was sealing his driveway in Lock Haven and an 
            85-year-old woman was found in a Shrewsbury corn field. Hospitals 
            treated greater than 100 persons for heat exhaustion. |Record 
            breaking high temperatures on the 15th included 104F in Lancaster, 
            103F in Philadelphia (The highest in 29 years.) and Williamsport, 
            101F in Selinsgrove, 100F in Avoca, 99F in Harrisburg and 98F in 
            Allentown. The excessive heat caused record demand to be reached by 
            the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection Association and 
            Pennsylvania Power and Light on July 14th and Metropolitan Edison on 
            the 15th. The excessive heat wreaked havoc as some roadways buckled. 
            In Chester County, the Gay Street bridge was closed for 72 hours. 
            Other roadway closures included Interstate 83 in York County, United 
            States Route 422 in Montgomery County, United States Route 30, 
            Pennsylvania State Routes 283 and 272 in Lancaster County and 
            Pennsylvania State Route 248 in Northampton County. The excessive 
            heat contributed to a prison riot in the Philadelphia Detention 
            Center the night of the 14th and caused at least one water main 
            break. Lastly, the heat wave took its toll on poultry and cattle. An 
            estimated 1 million chickens died because of the heat in 
            Pennsylvania, one-fifth of them in Lancaster County. Ninety-five 
            percent of all chicken farms in Pennsylvania suffered losses. 

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i'll see you guys next week it looks like nothing exciting is happening for a bit

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I'll take a look at the 14th a little more closely Friday morning.  So far 06z/4 and the 18z/4 GFS and 18z/4 GFSv16 have snow accumulation NYC forum.  NAEFS has not been working past the 14th but will recheck all other ensembles tomorrow morning (00z/5) and see if there is anything wintry meaningful for NYC-LI. It would be a 9 day in advance thread... very uncomfortable with those, 'thread the needle' storms without a big cold  in advance over QUE and a well defined closed low coming up the coast.  Also, less than favorable indices, implying lots can goi awry.  It deserves another look tomorrow. 

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That 1995 event was near the start of high dewpoint era. Matches the steep increase in minimum temperatures. 110°+ heat indices have occurred  in 1993,1995, 1999, 2010, 2011, and 2019.

6A35ABF1-C323-4677-9A12-7F8BDBDDD92F.thumb.png.db0e425d75c112ba818d10f1ee53e672.png

25F735BE-68B1-4ECA-A45F-8A65AC25FCD2.thumb.png.419b5df5787057ca616dfb63fd85cc40.png

 

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51 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i'll see you guys next week it looks like nothing exciting is happening for a bit

The best, until that time, Will. I no longer book anything that far in the future. As always .....

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Cooler air is again overspreading the region. Tomorrow and Saturday will be fair but unseasonably cold.

Overall, the first week of March will see variable temperatures, even as the week will very likely average cooler than normal. Another short but sharp cold shot is possible Friday through the weekend. Afterward, a strong warming trend should commence. Parts of the region will likely see their warmest temperatures so far during the second week of March. The 60° isotherm could extend into southern and perhaps even central New England during the height of the warmth. Central Park will very likely see its first 60° reading since December 25 and perhaps its highest temperatures since late November.

Toward the latter part of the second week of the month, temperatures could begin to cool as the AO falls sharply from its forecast peak.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March.

The SOI was -8.47 today. The SOI has now been negative for five consecutive days. The last time that occurred was October 25-29, 2020 when the SOI was negative for five consecutive days. This development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.957 today.

On March 3 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.718 (RMM). The March 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.051 (RMM).

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the minimums are rising quickly at both urban and rural sites. POU has fewer July lows in the 40s. While the NYC lows in the 50s have been harder to come by.

13CE1B3D-3040-4D27-B805-DC38A26118FC.thumb.jpeg.8427a8e121b49790bfa215b0e457dfcb.jpeg

 

81A2F306-973A-4D2A-9F61-55E3164B5804.thumb.jpeg.bdd9b71593dd719d9257dcf2fcdf63db.jpeg

 

@bluewave 
Can you give me the url for the website? I’d like to explore other locations for other months.

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Enjoy  next Wednesday because more cold days like this weekend are on the way for the 2nd half of the month. Mjo will be moving into the colder phases for March. Meh 

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25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Enjoy  next Wednesday because more cold days like this weekend are on the way for the 2nd half of the month. Mjo will be moving into the colder phases for March. Meh 

Yep but it’s the fourth quarter the clock is ticking and we only got one time out and the two minute warning left. Lots of thing can happen just like the end of football game but in the end winter is in its twilight. Thank god, I want warmth.

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35 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

Yep but it’s the fourth quarter the clock is ticking and we only got one time out and the two minute warning left. Lots of thing can happen just like the end of football game but in the end winter is in its twilight. Thank god, I want warmth.

Only question is if we'll have to wait until May or June for it to actually get warm.  Recent springs around here have been abysmal.  The high was 45 degrees on Mother's Day two years ago.

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1 hour ago, gmendevils8204 said:

Only question is if we'll have to wait until May or June for it to actually get warm.  Recent springs around here have been abysmal.  The high was 45 degrees on Mother's Day two years ago.

Usually May is our ticket to good weather.  March is when we get a hint of some warmth (next week for example) and April is the transition.

I agree though, spring has tended to be a damp and cool season for us with brief warmups as of recently.  Fall is the opposite, a continuation of summer like Bluewave has mentioned.

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Enjoy  next Wednesday because more cold days like this weekend are on the way for the 2nd half of the month. Mjo will be moving into the colder phases for March. Meh 

Idk about this. MJO looks to get stuck in the circle. 

AO will stay positive it looks like. Maybe more seasonal temps but nothing too abnormal.

Low heights in SE Canada will definitely lead to cooler temps after the warm-up but we'll see multiple days in the 60s if not low 70s from Tue-Fri next week.

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On 3/3/2021 at 9:28 AM, bluewave said:

While these SST patterns can shift again before the summer, this is the lowest February PMM value since 2012. It’s an interesting development considering how this winter was so different from La Niña expectations.If this pattern can hold into the summer, then it may allow the WAR to link up with a ridge over the Plains. Recent summers featured more of a WAR pattern with lower heights over the Plains. This allowed large numbers of 90° highs and 70° lows with high humidity and onshore flow. But the numerous 100° days from 2010 to 2013 were absent. So the WAR linking up with the Plains ridge could allow a chance of 100° days to join the higher dewpoints of recent years. So we‘ll have to see how the pattern evolves.


https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/RealTime/PMM.txt

2021   2  -2.64  
2012   2  -4.34 

 

so more like 2010?

 

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On 3/3/2021 at 2:33 PM, bluewave said:

The only slightly cooler summers since 2010 were 2014 and 2017. From 2010 to 2013, we had drier heat with more westerly flow. The big ridges and droughts over the Plains allowed more 100° days. 2015 to 2020 was all about  moist heat with more onshore flow. High numbers of 90°+ maxes and 70+mins with record numbers of days with 75°+ dewpoints. So the heat indices above 100° made it feel like we had numerous 100° days. We usually have to wait until the summer starts to see where the primary ridges that dictate the wind direction set up.

I hope we get the drier heat.  Make it happen lol.

We dont reach triple digits here on Long Island unless we get a westerly flow.

 

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On 3/3/2021 at 7:03 PM, bluewave said:

With a NYC average of temperature of 75.0°, it wasn’t really a hot summer by recent standards. But it was the only July in NYC during the 1970s with 3 days reaching 100°. The sensor was in the open sunlight back then. 100° is a struggle now since all the foliage growing over the site keeps it cooler. Newark only had 2 days reach 100° with no 100s at LGA and JFK.

I thought you and Forky were organizing a group to chop down the foliage in Central Park?  

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On 3/3/2021 at 5:34 PM, uncle W said:

the summer coming up is on the 11 year hot summer cycle...2010...1999...1988...1977...1966...1955...1944...all these years were much warmer than uaual...does 2021 continue the cycle?...

1933 and 1911 had 100 degrees a few days...go back more and there is no cycle...

I always wondered what started that cycle lol.

If you look at 1944.....it really stands out with the number of 100 degree days compared to the rest of that decade....likewise with 1966 and 2010 of course.

1999 had most of them confined to July (similar to 1955).

1988 was more of an inland heat summer.

1977 had that one historic hot stretch and the big blackout

Scorchers outside of this pattern include  1948, 1953, 1980, 1983, 1991,1993, 2002......

1983 must get special mention because its combo of heat and humidity is unparalleled (as well as late season heat).

1991 and 1993 set the 90+ degree record at NYC and 1993 especially I remember as being wall to wall heat!  and that three day super heat wave of course which I experienced again in 2010.  I'm also going to include 2011-13, they were all super hot and reached 100 degrees and July 2011 had the hottest day I've ever experienced bar none.  And then the big deluge came in August lol.

Cant forget 1995 either with the astonishing 130 heat index in July and then the wild fires in August.

 

 

 

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17 hours ago, gmendevils8204 said:

The blackout occurring on one of the hottest days of the year added to the legend of that summer.

that was a much more violent black out than the one we had in 2003 in August (did I get the year right lol)

 

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

That 1995 event was near the start of high dewpoint era. Matches the steep increase in minimum temperatures. 110°+ heat indices have occurred  in 1993,1995, 1999, 2010, 2011, and 2019.

6A35ABF1-C323-4677-9A12-7F8BDBDDD92F.thumb.png.db0e425d75c112ba818d10f1ee53e672.png

25F735BE-68B1-4ECA-A45F-8A65AC25FCD2.thumb.png.419b5df5787057ca616dfb63fd85cc40.png

 

yeah but the truly historic summers have had 100 degree temps plus humidity, IMO we cant consider a summer to be historic without 100 degree temps and at least 30+ days with 90 degree highs

 

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13 hours ago, uncle W said:

summers that averaged 80.0 or over for 30 days is a hot summer regardless of the other 60 days...these 30 day periods have been more frequent lately...high minimum driven in some cases...

year.....30 day ave...

1955.....81.6

1966.....81.0

1977.....80.2

1980.....82.5

1983.....80.9

1988.....81.8

1993.....81.2

1995.....81.1

1999.....81.9

2002.....80.3

2005.....81.8

2006.....80.1

2010.....81.8

2011.....81.0

2013.....81.7

2015.....80.0

2016.....80.3

2020.....80.0

wow 1980 really stands out there- if i'm not mistaken didn't that have a 60+ day 80 degree average (covering both July and August)?

 

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So I took another look and for now refraining on a topic start for the 14th-19th.  However, may get this going at 7P tonight or early Saturday. 

So far GFS OP:  06z/4,18z/4, 00/5 and 06z/5  have snow accumulation NYC forum, especially just inland from I95.  The new upgrade on the 17th, referred to as the GFSv16 only has the 18z/4 with snow.  Other modeling is hinting. Still no NAEFS beyond the 14th, tho am communicating with ENV Canada on this.  Hoping this gets resolved late today.  In the meantime... GEFS/EPS are showing, as i interpret the data, a more than climo increase in snowfall, I80 northward in the northern USA ~the 14th-onward. 

Overall pattern suggests troughing gradually moving to the nations mid section or eastern US  and keeping it a bit warmer than normal se USA coast. That gets Ohio Valley QPF faucet going. 

Not yet comfortable adding a snow-ice-rain-wind event thread for the 14th-19th - heading that way but I'd like to see a little more indication that this will not be a useless non hazard event. A lot can wrong., especially with the indices marginal.   If anything at this early stage (9days in advance) we'll get another test of reliability regarding our soon to be implemented  GFSv16 vs the old GFS.  

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